sharpside
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Traders/Rank #8,681

nmnr

0xcb8…feda
WR 80+WR 70+WR 60+Politics
Polymarket
PnL all-time−$1,864vol $157k
PnL 30d−$9,450gains $2,515 · losses $114
PnL 7d−$10.4kwin rate 7d 57.1%
Win rate84.2%adj 66.7% · 30d 78.6%
Open value$62.8kcash n/a
Positions73 / 92open / all-time
Max drawdown0%of equity peak
Account age41dlast trade 11h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

Not enough history to draw an equity curve.

SharpScore inputs

34/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 84.2% · shrunk toward 50%67
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable65
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d98
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity100

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

UFC 333: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev (Featherweight, Main Card) · Alexander Volkanovskiclosed+$1,807Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yesopen+$626US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? · Yesopen+$463Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? · Noopen+$371Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? · Yesopen+$266

Worst markets

Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Yesopen−$7,944Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election? · Noopen−$4,353Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Noopen−$1,236Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election? · Yesopen−$375Next White House Press Secretary announced by December 31, 2026? · Yesopen−$206

Open positions · 67

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseNo10.6k93¢94.5¢$10.1k+$160$0
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes11.6k66.1¢71.5¢$8,311+$626$0
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No4,77063.7¢71.5¢$3,411+$371$0
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Yes4,47567.9¢73.5¢$3,289+$251$0
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?No3,64784.6¢84.5¢$3,082−$2.44$0
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?No3,27282.1¢85.5¢$2,796+$109$0
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No2,76888.5¢88.5¢$2,450+$0.11$0
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes3,34963.6¢71.5¢$2,394+$266$0
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Yes3,48563.9¢68.5¢$2,387+$159$0
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes3,31672.5¢71.5¢$2,371−$32$0
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?No2,53467.9¢73.5¢$1,863+$141$0
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?No2,13882.5¢79¢$1,689−$75$0
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?No1,61784.6¢86.5¢$1,399+$31$0
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?No1,96166.7¢68.5¢$1,343+$35$0
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?Yes1,77972¢72.5¢$1,290+$8.90$0
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?No1,92658.1¢55.5¢$1,069−$51+$14
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?No1,35966¢71.5¢$971+$75$0
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?No1,25471.4¢76.5¢$959+$65$0
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Yes1,26072.8¢75.5¢$951+$34+$99
Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?Yes1,16569.4¢76.5¢$892+$83$0
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31?No87888.1¢96.5¢$847+$73$0
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?Yes1,09679¢69.5¢$762−$104$0
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?Yes94768.7¢77.5¢$734+$83$0
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Yes72379.9¢97.8¢$707+$129+$334
Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?No99168¢70.5¢$698+$25−$5.01
US imports Russian diesel by November 30?Yes1,08459.6¢56¢$607−$39$0
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?Yes64977.3¢74¢$480−$22+$38
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes47592¢94.5¢$449+$12$0
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?No62672.2¢71.5¢$448−$4.13$0
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Yes39181.5¢99.2¢$388+$69+$8.88
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?No51562.1¢62.5¢$322+$1.98+$3.32
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?No39675.7¢64.5¢$256−$44$0
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?No25791.6¢97.3¢$250+$15+$22
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)No24094¢98.8¢$237+$12−$2.89
Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?Yes31364.8¢71.5¢$224+$21$0
Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026?Yes66746.7¢33¢$220−$91−$74
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30?No31080¢70¢$217−$31$0
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?Yes20385.6¢98.8¢$201+$27$0
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31?No29769.8¢66.5¢$198−$9.69−$0.93
Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Yes16886.8¢98¢$164+$19$0
Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?No21067¢78¢$163+$23$0
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?No16582.2¢99¢$163+$28+$83
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?Yes16981.6¢89.5¢$151+$13$0
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?No17962.6¢78.8¢$141+$29−$6.73
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?No15273¢76.5¢$116+$5.37+$1.76
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?Yes17864.7¢65¢$116+$0.53−$0.29
Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?No11282¢99.4¢$112+$20$0
Iran coup attempt by December 31, 2026?No11987.8¢88¢$105+$0.25$0
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?No11181¢81.5¢$91+$0.56$0
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?No7454.9¢87.5¢$65+$24+$67
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?No6770.9¢81¢$54+$6.77+$9.49
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?No5773.7¢64¢$36−$5.48−$65
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?No3587.1¢93.5¢$33+$2.26+$1.73
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yes3085¢85.7¢$26+$0.19$0
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes4348¢32.5¢$14−$6.65$0
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?No1,83568¢0.7¢$12−$1,236$0
Next White House Press Secretary announced by December 31, 2026?Yes1279.9¢63.5¢$7.55−$1.95−$204
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?No1072¢73.5¢$7.00+$0.14$0
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?No966¢72.5¢$6.29+$0.56+$3.82
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Yes12.0k69¢0.1¢$5.99−$8,253+$309
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?No965.8¢58.4¢$5.22−$0.66−$54
Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?No686.9¢85.5¢$5.11−$0.08+$0.07
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Yes2517¢12.5¢$3.18−$1.14$0
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?No393.3¢100¢$2.52+$0.17+$4.93
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 22?No286¢100¢$2.33+$0.33$0
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 20?Yes197.6¢100¢$1.02+$0.02$0
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?No198.4¢100¢$1.02+$0.02$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
SELL YesWill Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?76¢49$3784%34
SELL YesWill Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?76¢49$3784%34
SELL YesWill Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?76¢49$3784%34
SELL YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?92.1¢24$2284%34
SELL YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?92.1¢24$2284%34
SELL YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?92.1¢24$2284%34
SELL YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?90.8¢13$1284%34
SELL YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?90.8¢13$1284%34
SELL YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?90.9¢13$1284%34
SELL YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?85.5¢5$4.6384%34
SELL YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?85.5¢5$4.6384%34
SELL NoWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?57¢51$2984%34
SELL NoWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?57¢51$2984%34
SELL NoWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?57¢51$2984%34
SELL YesIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?94.3¢8$7.5384%34
BUY YesUS imports Russian diesel by November 30?46¢225$10484%34
BUY YesUS imports Russian diesel by November 30?45¢225$10184%34
BUY YesUS imports Russian diesel by November 30?45¢225$10184%34
SELL YesWill Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?73¢989$72284%34
SELL YesWill Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?73¢989$72284%34