sharpside
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sleepymonkey

0xce4…d0e2
Politics
Polymarket
PnL all-time−$9,818vol $907k
PnL 30d−$1,390gains $8,016 · losses $9,833
PnL 7d+$141win rate 7d 28.4%
Win rate44.2%adj 44.4% · 30d 33.8%
Open value$8,172cash n/a
Positions210 / 1,322open / all-time
Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak
Account age7molast trade 10h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL−$8,816below peak −$9,220Oct 13

SharpScore inputs

29/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 44.2% · shrunk toward 50%11
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d99
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 100

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Carl Johan Sonesson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Skåne?Yes43038.1¢95.5¢$410+$247$0
Will Omar Aziz win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election?Yes37953.1¢85.5¢$324+$123$0
Will Eva Lindberg be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Gävleborg?Yes34065.6¢90.9¢$309+$86+$20
Will Mikael Andersson Elfgren be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Västmanland?Yes36318.8¢84.5¢$307+$238$0
Will Miguel Gerardo Cueva Celi win the next Piura mayoral elections?Yes30033.6¢91.1¢$273+$172$0
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes30024.7¢87.9¢$264+$189$0
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?Yes40034¢63.5¢$254+$118$0
Will Nasiphi Moya be the next mayor of Tshwane?No32770.9¢76.5¢$250+$18+$33
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes50041.6¢48.4¢$242+$34$0
Will Kate Marshall win the 2026 Reno mayoral election?Yes24182¢89.5¢$216+$18+$4.38
Will SDA win the most seats in the 2026 Bosnian general election?Yes20079¢96.6¢$193+$35$0
Will the 2026 United Left primary for the 2027 French presidential election be canceled?Yes20051¢96.6¢$193+$91$0
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?No20079¢95.5¢$191+$33$0
Will SNSD win the second most seats in the 2026 Bosnian general election?Yes19973.3¢95.1¢$190+$44$0
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?No19889.1¢94¢$186+$9.65+$16
US strike on Cuba by December 31?No20065¢89¢$178+$48$0
Will Brenda Locke win the 2026 Surrey mayoral election?Yes20032.5¢83.5¢$167+$102$0
Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?Yes2005.5¢78.5¢$157+$146$0
Will Chris Thomas be the next Chief Minister of the Isle of Man?Yes20018.3¢78¢$156+$119+$1.67
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?No30094.3¢46.2¢$139−$144+$0.50
Will Christoffer Öqvist be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Sörmland?Yes20029.5¢69¢$138+$79−$37
Will Nocawe Mafu be the next mayor of Buffalo City?No13785.7¢99.4¢$136+$19+$14
Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Nayarit Congress election?Yes20251.4¢66¢$133+$29$0
Will Ricardo Samaniego win the 2026 El Paso County Judge election?Yes12691.9¢96¢$121+$5.23$0
Will Alia Hyacinth Iormem win the 2027 Benue State gubernatorial election?Yes20056¢60.5¢$121+$9.00$0
China x Japan military clash before 2027?No12085.8¢96.2¢$115+$12$0
Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election?Yes20063¢55.5¢$111−$15$0
Will Cilliers Brink be the next mayor of Tshwane?Yes22242¢49.5¢$110+$17+$3.12
Will Mikaela Waltersson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Halland?Yes15538¢66¢$102+$43−$0.03
Will Donald Trump visit Russia in 2026?No10085¢93.4¢$93+$8.35$0
Will US win 40-45% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?Yes22136.4¢41.5¢$92+$11+$13
Will Retief Odendaal be the next mayor of Nelson Mandela Bay?Yes25721.8¢35.5¢$91+$35$0
Will Jeremy Matlow win the Tallahassee mayoral election?Yes20031.7¢44.8¢$90+$26$0
Will Authentic Right – Dr Miloš Jovanović win the third most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?No10086.3¢85.5¢$85−$0.80$0
Russia coup attempt in 2026?No8987¢96.6¢$85+$8.45$0
Will Henry Yao win the 2026 Richmond mayoral election?No8085.2¢99.5¢$80+$11$0
Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 70% or more?No10083.4¢74¢$74−$9.40$0
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes50022.9¢14.8¢$74−$41$0
Will PVEM win the most seats in the 2027 Puebla Congress election?No10082.8¢73.5¢$74−$9.30$0
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes8079.8¢90.5¢$72+$8.60$0
Will Werner Pretorius be the next mayor of Mangaung?No10375.1¢67¢$69−$8.33+$0.82
Will Babalwa Lobishe be the next mayor of Nelson Mandela Bay?Yes25726¢23¢$59−$7.84$0
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?Yes35118¢15.5¢$54−$8.78+$2.86
Will Robert Thunfors be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Västernorrland?No5889.9¢91.1¢$53+$0.68+$2.04
Will Rob Howard win the 2026 Richmond mayoral election?No9042.8¢56¢$50+$12+$47
Will Andile Lungisa be the next mayor of Nelson Mandela Bay?Yes25713¢19¢$49+$15$0
Will Ron Nirenberg win the 2026 Bexar County Judge election?Yes5082¢97.6¢$49+$7.78$0
Will Abba Kabir Yusuf win the 2027 Kano State gubernatorial election?Yes10050.8¢46.5¢$47−$4.30$0
Will PAN win the most seats in the 2027 Querétaro Congress election?Yes9048.8¢48.5¢$44−$0.25$0
Will Professora Maria do Carmo win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election?Yes29519.4¢14¢$41−$16+$1.95
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Yes28074.2¢14.5¢$41−$167$0
Will Malin Sjölander be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Kalmar County?Yes34540.5¢11.8¢$41−$99$0
Will Wandisile Jikeka be the next mayor of Nelson Mandela Bay?No4081¢96¢$38+$6.00$0
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes30066¢12.5¢$38−$160$0
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?Yes28032.2¢12.5¢$35−$55$0
Will Tom Dyas win the 2026 Kelowna mayoral election?Yes12439.9¢27.5¢$34−$15+$1.53
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Yes30072¢11¢$33−$183$0
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?Yes50041.3¢6.5¢$32−$174−$75
Will Jongizizwe Dlabathi be the next mayor of Ekurhuleni?Yes15013¢20.9¢$31+$12$0
Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 62-66%?Yes9229.6¢33.5¢$31+$3.54$0
Will Helen Zille be the next mayor of Johannesburg?Yes5050.3¢59¢$30+$4.37$0
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?Yes29521.2¢9.5¢$28−$35+$0.99
Will Kash Heed win the 2026 Richmond mayoral election?Yes10030¢27.5¢$28−$2.50$0
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Yes15043.3¢17.5¢$26−$39$0
Will Tlangi Mogale be the next mayor of Tshwane?No2784¢95.4¢$26+$3.06+$2.70
Will European Serbia – Marinika Tepić, Zdravko Ponoš win the third most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?No3165.9¢79.5¢$24+$4.18$0
Will Republican House incumbents not win in between four and six nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?Yes2683.2¢92¢$24+$2.29$0
Will Per Svensson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Halland?Yes15524¢15¢$23−$14$0
Will Khathutshelo Rasilingwane be the next mayor of Ekurhuleni?Yes15023.4¢15¢$23−$13$0
US strike on Colombia by December 31?Yes10017¢22.5¢$22+$5.50$0
Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?Yes10025¢20.5¢$21−$4.50$0
Will Markus Allard be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Örebro County?No2093¢95.4¢$19+$0.48$0
Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 58-62%?Yes15010.3¢12.7¢$19+$3.47$0
Will Kenneth Östberg be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Västmanland?Yes36337.4¢4.5¢$16−$120$0
Will Urban Granström be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Sörmland?Yes20050¢7.5¢$15−$85$0
Will Mark Sutcliffe win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election?No16041.5¢9¢$14−$52$0
Will Sebastian Cehlin be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Örebro County?Yes3323.4¢4.3¢$14+$2.86$0
Will Aminu Abdussalam Gwarzo win the 2027 Kano State gubernatorial election?Yes10011¢13.5¢$14+$2.50$0
Will Jane Poole-Wilson be the next Chief Minister of the Isle of Man?Yes20015.4¢6.5¢$13−$18$0
Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Puebla Congress election?Yes2059¢64.5¢$13+$1.10$0
Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 66-70%?Yes5011¢25.5¢$13+$7.25$0
Will Kathleen Taylor win the 2026 Reno mayoral election?Yes1305.1¢8.6¢$11+$4.64$0
Will US win 45-50% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?Yes3021¢33.5¢$10+$3.75$0
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 20%-30%?Yes2029¢49.5¢$9.90+$4.10$0
Will Janine Lélis win the Cape Verde presidential election?Yes4004¢2.4¢$9.60−$6.40$0
Will Rob Callister be the next Chief Minister of the Isle of Man?Yes2003.4¢4.8¢$9.60+$2.80$0
Will Kenny Kunene be the next mayor of Johannesburg?Yes1500.5¢6.2¢$9.33+$8.58$0
Will Nkosindiphile Xhakaza be the next mayor of Ekurhuleni?Yes15020¢6.2¢$9.30−$21$0
Will Minerva Torres Shelton win the 2026 El Paso County Judge election?Yes1771.8¢5.2¢$9.20+$5.97$0
Will Jorge Hilton Flores Bazán win the next Piura mayoral elections?Yes30021.1¢2.9¢$8.86−$55+$7.53
Will Loyiso Masuku be the next mayor of Johannesburg?Yes1000.3¢8.4¢$8.36+$8.06$0
Will Ntombi Mekgwe be the next mayor of Ekurhuleni?Yes15020¢5.3¢$7.95−$22$0
Will Herman Mashaba be the next mayor of Johannesburg?Yes2103.3¢3.4¢$7.03+$0.01$0
Will Alfred Cannan be the next Chief Minister of the Isle of Man?Yes20036¢3.5¢$7.00−$65+$8.93
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 10%-20%?Yes2220¢31.5¢$6.89+$2.52$0
Will DF win the second most seats in the 2026 Bosnian general election?Yes2000.5¢3.2¢$6.40+$5.30$0
Will Jorge James Pérez Rosas win the next Huancayo mayoral elections?Yes2060.7¢3.1¢$6.38+$4.88$0
Will Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas win the 2027 Nuevo León Governor Election?Yes12012.2¢4.9¢$5.88−$8.72$0
Will Patrik Stenvard be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Gävleborg?Yes34021.3¢1.7¢$5.78−$67$0
Will Frank Chikane be the next mayor of Johannesburg?Yes5029.9¢10.9¢$5.45−$9.50$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY YesWill PAN win the most seats in the 2027 Querétaro Congress election?51.8¢50$2644%29
BUY NoWill PVEM win the most seats in the 2027 Puebla Congress election?87¢40$3544%29
BUY YesWill Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Nayarit Congress election?51.4¢202$10444%29
BUY YesWill Zenaide Maia win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte Senate election?35¢20$7.0044%29
BUY NoWill Lahesio Bonfim win the most votes in the 2026 Maranhão Senate election?73.6¢15$1144%29
BUY YesWill Roseana Sarney win the most votes in the 2026 Maranhão Senate election?34¢20$6.8044%29
BUY YesWill Sergio Meneguelli win the second-most votes in the 2026 Espírito Santo Senate election?22.9¢56$1344%29
BUY YesWill Marcos Rogério win the 2026 Rondônia gubernatorial election?90¢100$9044%29
BUY NoWill Gaguim win the most votes in the 2026 Tocantins Senate election?92.2¢249$22944%29
BUY YesWill Alexandre Guimarães win the second-most votes in the 2026 Tocantins Senate election?34.7¢250$8744%29
BUY YesWill Benedita da Silva win the most votes in the 2026 Rio de Janeiro Senate election?28.7¢29$8.3244%29
BUY YesWill Sílvia Cristina win the most votes in the 2026 Rondônia Senate election?30¢30$9.0044%29
BUY YesWill Dr. Fernando Máximo win the most votes in the 2026 Rondônia Senate election?60¢164$9944%29
BUY YesWill Fufuca win the second-most votes in the 2026 Maranhão Senate election?29¢100$2944%29
BUY YesWill Weverton Rocha win the second-most votes in the 2026 Maranhão Senate election?32¢100$3244%29
BUY NoWill Fufuca win the most votes in the 2026 Maranhão Senate election?78.8¢46$3644%29
BUY YesWill Alexandre Curi win the most votes in the 2026 Paraná Senate election?28¢33$9.2444%29
BUY YesWill US win 40-45% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?36.3¢301$10944%29
BUY YesWill Michelle Bolsonaro win the most votes in the 2026 Federal District Senate election?90¢200$18044%29
SELL YesWill Rigotto win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Sul Senate election?6¢12$0.7444%29