sharpside
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MaxEnt

0xcf0…c770
WhaleCryptoPoliticsOtherSport
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$2,441vol $2.66M
PnL 30d+$4,718gains $16.2k · losses $23.0k
PnL 7d−$5,562win rate 7d 57.1%
Win rate38.2%adj 38.6% · 30d 42.4%
Open value$196kcash n/a
Positions351 / 1,009open / all-time
Max drawdown−35.8%of equity peak
Account age6molast trade 5h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$37.4kbelow peak −$5,755Oct 11

SharpScore inputs

52/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale48
Adjusted win rateraw 38.2% · shrunk toward 50%0
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d99
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity64

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 100

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026?No10.6k38.7¢89.5¢$9,503+$5,398−$110
Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch?No10.9k42.1¢82¢$8,924+$4,343$0
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?No11.2k64.9¢75.5¢$8,453+$1,187$0
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?No8,55871.6¢87.1¢$7,449+$1,325$0
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81No7,53685.8¢95¢$7,160+$695$0
Ink FDV above $250M one day after launch?No8,40619.7¢82¢$6,893+$5,239$0
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?No7,07780.3¢86.3¢$6,104+$420−$220
Base FDV above $2B one day after launch?No9,30332.9¢61¢$5,675+$2,616$0
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026?No6,02745.5¢86.7¢$5,225+$2,483$0
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?Yes5,13975¢94¢$4,831+$979$0
Base FDV above $500M one day after launch?No8,09028.8¢58.5¢$4,732+$2,404$0
Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch?No6,31358.7¢72.5¢$4,577+$872$0
Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch?No4,68577.9¢94.5¢$4,427+$776$0
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?No4,88864.5¢85.5¢$4,179+$1,027$0
Base FDV above $8B one day after launch?No4,15368.5¢79.5¢$3,302+$458$0
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?No3,35766.7¢95.7¢$3,211+$971$0
Will Revolut launch a USD stablecoin in 2026?No4,32854.8¢72.5¢$3,138+$766$0
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2027?No5,36232.6¢56.5¢$3,029+$1,280$0
Opensea FDV above $300M one day after launch?No3,49862.3¢86¢$3,008+$829$0
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes5,90535.9¢40.3¢$2,377+$258$0
Consensys IPO closing market cap above $3B?No2,24189.9¢92.5¢$2,073+$58$0
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch?Yes2,48852¢82¢$2,041+$746$0
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?No2,13290.9¢93.5¢$1,993+$56$0
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes36.2k5¢5.1¢$1,845+$19$0
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?No2,00082¢82.2¢$1,643+$3.41$0
Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%?Yes2,35449.9¢69.5¢$1,636+$460$0
Will Trump and Putin not meet?No2,00435.8¢80.5¢$1,613+$895$0
Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026?No1,69887¢93¢$1,579+$102$0
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2027?No1,92760.2¢80¢$1,542+$382$0
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?Yes1,77965¢86.5¢$1,539+$383$0
Base FDV above $6B one day after launch?No2,06764¢70.5¢$1,458+$135$0
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes22.5k7.8¢6.5¢$1,453−$304$0
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?No1,57585.6¢91¢$1,433+$86$0
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Yes2,65224.1¢53.9¢$1,428+$789$0
Base FDV above $10B one day after launch?No1,63166.4¢84.5¢$1,378+$295$0
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?No4,11144.5¢31.5¢$1,295−$535−$195
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?Yes2,05434¢55.9¢$1,148+$449$0
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?No2,89633¢39.5¢$1,144+$190−$293
Will Ink launch a token by December 31, 2026?No1,41564.8¢77.5¢$1,097+$180$0
Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch?Yes8,75121.5¢12.5¢$1,094−$786−$25
Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch?No1,31482.9¢83¢$1,090+$1.01$0
Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.9% and 1.0% over the 12 month period ending in September 2026?Yes1,87740.6¢55.5¢$1,042+$279−$0.02
Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026?No6,69049.8¢15.5¢$1,037−$2,297−$18
Will Pump.fun reach $0.0090 by December 31, 2026?No1,65585.2¢62¢$1,026−$385$0
Arc FDV above $2B one day after launch?Yes2,18249.3¢47¢$1,026−$50$0
Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 0.6% and 1.0%?Yes2,27737.8¢44¢$1,002+$141+$1.89
Will Monero hit $1000 in 2026?No1,34072.5¢73¢$978+$6.66$0
Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 1.1% and 1.5%?Yes3,50622.8¢27.5¢$964+$166−$126
Will Apyx launch a token by December 31, 2026?No1,90022.1¢50.3¢$955+$535+$656
Will Rabby launch a token by December 31, 2026?No1,01382¢92.5¢$937+$107$0
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes6,15526.7¢14.8¢$908−$735$0
Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2026?Yes3,47823.4¢25.5¢$887+$72$0
Base FDV above $1B one day after launch?No1,29540¢63.5¢$822+$305$0
Will Puffpaw launch a token by December 31, 2026?No1,03957.4¢74¢$769+$172$0
Base FDV above $5B one day after launch?No1,13361.7¢67.5¢$765+$66$0
Will Extended launch a token by December 31 2026?No2,89436.3¢26¢$751−$300−$244
Consensys IPO closing market cap above $2B?No80782.1¢93¢$750+$88+$45
Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first?$1,0002,94347¢24¢$706−$676$0
Will Linera launch a token by March 31, 2027?No76766.6¢91.5¢$702+$191$0
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?Yes86055.9¢78.5¢$675+$195$0
Will Robinhood Chain launch a token by December 31, 2027?No79077.2¢85¢$671+$62$0
Will Predict.fun launch a token by March 31, 2027?No5,33731.6¢12¢$640−$1,047−$74
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes11.5k4.2¢5.6¢$637+$159$0
Extended listed on Coinbase within 30 days of TGE?Yes1,45630.6¢41.5¢$604+$159$0
Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?No4,06228.8¢14.5¢$589−$581$0
Base FDV above $4B one day after launch?No86058.8¢64.5¢$555+$49$0
Will MGM Resorts be acquired before 2027?No59616.7¢90.5¢$539+$440$0
Will Robinhood be first to list tokenized stocks in the US?Yes1,17923.7¢45.5¢$536+$257$0
Will Zcash reach $2000 by December 31, 2026?No78361.9¢67.9¢$532+$47$0
Will Ostium launch a token by December 31, 2026?No56390.1¢94.1¢$529+$22$0
Will Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by December 31, 2026?No59783.7¢88.5¢$528+$29$0
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?No58936¢86.5¢$510+$297$0
Will Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by November 30, 2026?No55087¢91.5¢$503+$25$0
Betmoar FDV above $20M one day after launch?No89934¢54.5¢$490+$185$0
Arc FDV above $3B one day after launch?Yes1,32336.6¢37¢$489+$4.72$0
Will Noble launch a token by June 30, 2027?No62375.6¢78.5¢$489+$18$0
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2026?No1,54529.4¢31.5¢$487+$33$0
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31?No50091¢95.5¢$478+$23$0
Will Solana hit $60 or $140 first?$601,06756.9¢43.6¢$465−$142$0
Consensys IPO closing market cap above $1B?No49968.2¢93.1¢$464+$124+$67
Will Baidu be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?No54784.7¢83.5¢$457−$6.39+$0.70
Kraken IPO by March 31, 2027?No50083.7¢89.5¢$447+$29$0
Will Linera launch a token by September 30, 2027?No52583.6¢85¢$446+$7.55+$184
Will Based Polymarket revenue hit $1M before 2027?No49688.4¢89¢$441+$2.90$0
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Yes50484¢83.5¢$421−$2.52$0
Will Unitree be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?No50086¢82.5¢$413−$18$0
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $17.5B by December 31?No46289¢88.5¢$409−$2.31$0
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?No50079¢81.5¢$408+$13$0
Will Linera launch a token by December 31, 2027?No46557.2¢84.5¢$393+$127+$37
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals?Yes10.3k3.2¢3.8¢$386+$57$0
Will BYD be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?No42086¢91¢$382+$21+$1.40
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?No15.0k10.1¢2.4¢$361−$1,165−$116
Will Apyx launch a token by September 30, 2027?No1,85312.8¢19.4¢$359+$121+$30
Extended listed on OKX within 30 days of TGE?Yes66734.7¢53¢$354+$122$0
Will USDT market cap hit $200B before 2027?No68935¢50.6¢$348+$107$0
Linera listed on Kraken within 30 days of TGE?No38484.6¢89.5¢$344+$19$0
Will Phantom launch a token by December 31, 2027?No42669¢80.5¢$343+$49$0
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals?Yes10.3k3.2¢3.3¢$335+$5.15$0
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $200 in October?No54363¢57.5¢$312−$30$0
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Shanghai, China?Yes1,55118.2¢20¢$310+$28$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY YesWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?84¢504$42338%52
BUY YesWill Interactive Brokers (IBKR) Q3 net interest income be above $1.125B?50.7¢119$6038%52
BUY YesWill Interactive Brokers (IBKR) Q3 net interest income be above $1.1B?73¢22$1638%52
BUY NoWill Pump.fun reach $0.0150 by December 31, 2026?89¢40$3638%52
BUY NoWill Pump.fun reach $0.0150 by December 31, 2026?89¢40$3638%52
SELL YesWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?11¢2,023$22338%52
SELL YesWill China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.0% and 4.3%?12.9¢368$4738%52
BUY NoWill Ledger announce compensation or reimbursement for affected users by October 31?78¢1$0.7838%52
BUY Juan Manuel CerundoloShanghai Rolex Masters: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Carlos Alcaraz8¢207$1738%52
BUY Casper RuudShanghai Rolex Masters: Yunchaokete Bu vs Casper Ruud79¢202$16038%52
BUY YesWill Felix Auger-Aliassime Qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals 2026?14¢20$2.8038%52
BUY YesWill Felix Auger-Aliassime Qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals 2026?14¢22$3.0338%52
BUY YesWill Felix Auger-Aliassime Qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals 2026?14¢69$9.6838%52
BUY YesWill Felix Auger-Aliassime Qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals 2026?14¢69$9.6838%52
BUY YesWill Felix Auger-Aliassime Qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals 2026?14¢69$9.6838%52
SELL Felix Auger-AliassimeShanghai Rolex Masters: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Felix Auger-Aliassime53¢101$5438%52
BUY YesWill Felix Auger-Aliassime Qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals 2026?14¢20$2.8138%52
BUY Felix Auger-AliassimeShanghai Rolex Masters: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Felix Auger-Aliassime81¢101$8238%52
BUY NoExtended FDV above $150M one day after launch?31.1¢956$29838%52
BUY YesCambria listed on Bybit within 30 days of TGE?18.4¢246$4538%52