sharpside
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Traders/Rank #2,113

balerinacapuchina

0xd86…648d
WhalePnL 10k+WR 70+WR 60+1y+PoliticsSportCrypto
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$31.9kvol $1.57M
PnL 30d+$7,552gains $8,986 · losses $5.68
PnL 7d+$1,347win rate 7d 83.3%
Win rate79.3%adj 76.9% · 30d 92.6%
Open value$181kcash n/a
Positions98 / 328open / all-time
Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak
Account age1.4ylast trade 13h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$30.9kbelow peak −$951Oct 9

SharpScore inputs

59/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale64
Adjusted win rateraw 79.3% · shrunk toward 50%92
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable84
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d98
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 98

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No166k50¢98.3¢$163k+$79.9k$0
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?Yes19.6k70.9¢62¢$12.2k−$1,753$0
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes166k50¢1.8¢$2,897−$79.9k$0
Kanye West arrested in Russia by October 31?No1,41498¢99.7¢$1,409+$24$0
Will global temperature increase by between 1.30ºC and 1.34ºC in September 2026?No1,43190.9¢96.6¢$1,381+$81$0
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.30ºC in October 2026?No28676.2¢97.4¢$278+$60$0
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.49ºC in September 2026?No16299¢99¢$160−$0.08$0
Will global temperature increase by between 1.35ºC and 1.39ºC in September 2026?Yes16096¢89.5¢$143−$10$0
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31?No1195¢96.3¢$10+$0.14$0
Will Syria join the Abraham Accords before 2027?No681.1¢95.4¢$5.88+$0.88$0
Will there be no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027?Yes689¢98.1¢$5.44+$0.50$0
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?No688¢94.5¢$5.37+$0.37$0
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 31, 2026?No689¢95.5¢$5.36+$0.36$0
Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026?No689¢95.5¢$5.36+$0.36$0
Will GameStop acquire eBay?No685¢94.5¢$5.33+$0.54$0
Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026?No690¢96¢$5.33+$0.33$0
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?No591¢96.8¢$5.31+$0.32$0
US x China Military clash before 2027?No592¢97.5¢$5.29+$0.30$0
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?No688.9¢94.2¢$5.29+$0.30$0
Will João de Deus Mendes win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?No593.3¢98.9¢$5.29+$0.30$0
Yoon out of custody before 2027?No690¢95¢$5.27+$0.27$0
Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31?No684¢87.5¢$5.21+$0.21$0
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?No686¢89.5¢$5.20+$0.20$0
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?No581¢95.5¢$5.19+$0.79$0
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?No595.6¢98.9¢$5.17+$0.17$0
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?No593¢96¢$5.15+$0.16$0
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?No675¢88.5¢$5.14+$0.78$0
Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Yes689¢91¢$5.11+$0.11$0
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?No596¢97¢$5.07+$0.05$0
Will Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?No594¢95¢$5.04+$0.05$0
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?No596.6¢97.2¢$5.02+$0.03$0
Will François Hollande advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?No593¢93.5¢$5.02+$0.03$0
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?No595.5¢96¢$5.02+$0.02$0
Will Oman join the Abraham Accords before 2027?No595¢95.4¢$5.02+$0.02$0
Will S.O.S. Romania (SOS) be included in the next Romanian government?No597.7¢98.1¢$5.01+$0.02$0
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?No593¢92.9¢$4.99−$0.01$0
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?No592¢92.8¢$4.98+$0.04$0
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?No688¢87.5¢$4.97−$0.03$0
Will PT win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?No689.3¢88.7¢$4.96−$0.03$0
Modi out by December 31, 2026?No591.8¢90.7¢$4.93−$0.06$0
Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027?No591¢92.5¢$4.93+$0.08$0
Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by December 31?No588¢94.3¢$4.87+$0.32$0
Will Marco Rubio be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?No773¢70.5¢$4.82−$0.17$0
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No690.5¢86.9¢$4.79−$0.20$0
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?No587.3¢98.3¢$4.68+$0.52$0
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?No583¢89¢$4.65+$0.31$0
Will Iran recognize Israel by December 31?No592¢97.6¢$4.55+$0.26$0
Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31?Yes593.8¢82.5¢$4.40−$0.60$0
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes679.8¢71.3¢$4.36−$0.52$0
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?No689¢77.3¢$4.31−$0.66$0
Will the Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) be included in the next Romanian government?No590.1¢92.4¢$4.29+$0.11$0
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?No487¢93.5¢$4.14+$0.29$0
Will Turkey join the Abraham Accords before 2027?No495¢96.3¢$4.13+$0.05$0
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?No583¢78.5¢$3.99−$0.23$0
Will the National Regeneration Movement (Morena) win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election?Yes596.2¢85.4¢$3.88−$0.49$0
Will October 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?Yes590¢69.5¢$3.48−$1.02$0
Will Pakistan recognize Israel by December 31?No494¢95.5¢$3.39+$0.05$0
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?No396.5¢97.5¢$3.30+$0.03$0
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes3514.2¢8.1¢$2.83−$2.17$0
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?No387¢91.5¢$2.59+$0.13$0
Will Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?Yes363¢73¢$2.36+$0.32$0
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026?No293¢95¢$2.33+$0.05$0
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?No294¢97.1¢$2.29+$0.07$0
Will the National Regeneration Movement (Morena) win the second most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election?No296¢97.1¢$1.98+$0.02$0
Will Iraq recognize Israel by December 31?No295¢95.7¢$1.94+$0.01$0
Will Peter Obi win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?No261¢75.5¢$1.77+$0.34$0
Will Rwanda have an Ebola case in 2026?Yes737¢23.5¢$1.65−$0.95$0
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No285¢94.5¢$1.64+$0.17$0
Will Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?No287.9¢75.3¢$1.55−$0.26$0
Xi Jinping out before 2027?No192.8¢97.4¢$1.40+$0.07$0
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?No358.6¢51.5¢$1.35−$0.19$0
Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in 2026?No190¢94.5¢$1.16+$0.06$0
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.49ºC in October 2026?Yes574¢21.5¢$1.07−$2.63$0
Will Anwar Ibrahim cease to be Prime Minister of Malaysia by December 31, 2026?Yes953¢11¢$1.04−$3.96$0
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes5,00014.7¢0¢$0−$735+$729
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5Under1,06560.6¢0¢$0−$645−$7.14
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw?Yes1,05032¢0¢$0−$336−$6.85
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Yes1,01578.6¢0¢$0−$798$0
Spread: England (-1.5)England1,00062¢0¢$0−$620$0
UFC 329: Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoît Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card)Benoît Saint Denis1,00057¢0¢$0−$570$0
Dota 2: BoomBoys vs Team Falcons - Game 1 WinnerBoomBoys83148.2¢0¢$0−$400−$10
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora (BO3) - The International Group StageAurora62647.9¢0¢$0−$300−$7.81
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw?Yes60022¢0¢$0−$132$0
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 WinnerTeam Yandex55627¢0¢$0−$150−$5.47
Dota 2: Iron Wing vs Team Spirit - Game 1 WinnerIron Wing51139.1¢0¢$0−$200−$6.09
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Falcons (BO3) - The International Group StageTeam Falcons50859¢0¢$0−$300−$6.15
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5Over50049¢0¢$0−$245+$5.00
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw?Yes50010¢0¢$0−$50$0
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-09-08?No40042¢0¢$0−$168−$4.87
Spread: Colombia (-1.5)Colombia40035¢0¢$0−$140$0
Dota 2: Iron Wing vs Team Yandex - Game 2 WinnerIron Wing39251¢0¢$0−$200−$4.90
Dota 2: Iron Wing vs Team Spirit (BO3) - The International PlayoffsIron Wing30055¢0¢$0−$165−$3.71
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 0.5Over13556¢0¢$0−$75$0
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?Yes10039¢0¢$0−$39$0
Trump renames AI by September 30?No5048¢0¢$0−$24−$0.50
Will United Bangsamoro Justice Party (UBJP) win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections?Yes773¢0¢$0−$4.99$0
Will CPRF win the next Chukotka Autonomous Okrug Parliament elections?Yes775.7¢0¢$0−$5.00$0
Will United Russia (ER) win 60% or more of the party-list vote in the 2026 Russian State Duma election?Yes684¢0¢$0−$5.25−$0.03

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY YesWill October 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?90¢5$4.5079%59
BUY YesWill global temperature increase by between 1.35ºC and 1.39ºC in September 2026?96¢160$15479%59
BUY NoWill global temperature increase by between 1.30ºC and 1.34ºC in September 2026?97.8¢210$20579%59
BUY NoWill global temperature increase by less than 1.30ºC in October 2026?77¢64$4979%59
BUY NoWill global temperature increase by less than 1.30ºC in October 2026?76¢217$16579%59
BUY NoWill global temperature increase by less than 1.30ºC in October 2026?76¢5$3.8079%59
BUY YesWill 2026 be the hottest year on record?66¢4,000$2,64079%59
SELL NoWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?84¢4,262$3,58079%59
SELL YesWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?84.5¢2,721$2,29979%59
BUY NoWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?83¢2,000$1,66079%59
BUY NoWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?83¢2,261$1,87779%59
BUY YesWill Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?88¢6,499$5,71979%59
BUY NoWill Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?33.1¢654$21679%59
BUY NoWill global temperature increase by more than 1.49ºC in September 2026?99¢162$16079%59
BUY NoWill global temperature increase by between 1.30ºC and 1.34ºC in September 2026?98¢221$21779%59
BUY NoWill global temperature increase by between 1.30ºC and 1.34ºC in September 2026?97¢121$11779%59
BUY NoWill global temperature increase by between 1.30ºC and 1.34ºC in September 2026?95¢215$20479%59
BUY YesWill global temperature increase by more than 1.49ºC in October 2026?74¢5$3.7079%59
BUY NoTrump renames AI by September 30?48¢50$2479%59
BUY YesWill 2026 be the hottest year on record?69¢1,833$1,26579%59