sharpside
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Traders/Rank #3,910

illumination

0xe1b…8378
WR 60+Politics
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$8,175vol $363k
PnL 30d−$497gains $0 · losses $0
PnL 7d−$4.05win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate64.3%adj 58.3% · 30d 0.0%
Open value$3,613cash n/a
Positions58 / 88open / all-time
Max drawdown−35.0%of equity peak
Account age12molast trade 3mo ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$7,433below peak −$1,405Oct 12

SharpScore inputs

34/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale56
Adjusted win rateraw 64.3% · shrunk toward 50%46
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable65
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d0
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity65

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? · Yesclosed+$4,294US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? · Noclosed+$2,646US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? · Noclosed+$2,312Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? · Yesclosed+$731Will Michael Carrick be appointed as manager of Manchester United? · Yesclosed+$578

Worst markets

Will Olivia Rodrigo release an album in 2025? · Yesclosed−$734Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? · Noopen−$570Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? · Noclosed−$536Lighter Airdrop on December 29? · Yesclosed−$517Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? · Yesopen−$360

Open positions · 58

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
AI bubble burst in 2026?Yes5,9377.4¢6.2¢$365−$74$0
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes2,00015¢17.5¢$350+$50$0
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Yes11.0k4.1¢3.1¢$335−$114$0
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?Yes12.8k4.1¢2.3¢$288−$232$0
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Yes6,5004.8¢4.3¢$276−$34$0
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81Yes7,5005.4¢3.6¢$266−$139$0
Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027?Yes2,1816.4¢10.5¢$229+$90$0
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?Yes7,5004.7¢2.9¢$221−$129$0
Will Zoom Video Communications be acquired before 2027?Yes3,1806.9¢6.2¢$197−$24$0
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Yes3,5005.9¢5.5¢$193−$12$0
New pandemic in 2026?Yes4,0005.7¢4.5¢$180−$50$0
Clavicular sentenced to prison by December 31, 2026?Yes2,9805¢6¢$179+$30$0
Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027?Yes2,5976.7¢5¢$130−$44$0
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027?Yes4,2004.2¢2.9¢$120−$55$0
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Yes5,0002¢2.2¢$110+$10.00$0
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?Yes2,6002.5¢3.4¢$87+$21$0
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?Yes1,6004.4¢3.7¢$58−$12$0
Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?Yes854¢15.5¢$13+$9.74$0
2026 Balance of Power: OtherYes4,0000.5¢0.3¢$10.00−$10.00$0
Will Khamzat Chimaev be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026?Yes5007¢1¢$5.00−$30$0
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 19-25?Yes17.0k1.6¢0¢$0−$270$0
Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027?Yes11.0k0.1¢0¢$0−$11$0
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027?Yes10.0k0.4¢0¢$0−$40$0
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?No10,0005.7¢0¢$0−$570$0
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?Yes10,0003.6¢0¢$0−$360$0
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?Yes10,0000.1¢0¢$0−$10.00$0
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?Yes9,6000.4¢0¢$0−$40$0
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Yes8,0003.4¢0¢$0−$270$0
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Yes7,0000.6¢0¢$0−$42$0
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?Yes6,0000.1¢0¢$0−$7.00−$0.10
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?Yes6,0000.1¢0¢$0−$8.99$0
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?Yes5,0001¢0¢$0−$50$0
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March?Yes5,0002.5¢0¢$0−$125$0
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?Yes4,0001¢0¢$0−$40$0
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Yes3,8006.4¢0¢$0−$242$0
Will Trump say "Judy Shelton" during the State of the Union address?Yes3,2321.7¢0¢$0−$55$0
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March?Yes3,2008¢0¢$0−$256$0
Will Trump visit China by May 15?No3,0000.5¢0¢$0−$16$0
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Yes3,0001¢0¢$0−$30$0
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?Yes3,0001¢0¢$0−$30$0
Netanyahu out by March 31?Yes2,6004¢0¢$0−$104$0
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?Yes2,5002¢0¢$0−$50$0
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?Yes2,2001¢0¢$0−$22$0
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?Yes2,0001¢0¢$0−$20$0
US forces enter Iran by March 14?Yes1,80017¢0¢$0−$306$0
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Yes1,8001¢0¢$0−$18$0
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?Yes1,8000.6¢0¢$0−$11$0
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?Yes1,5586.4¢0¢$0−$100$0
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?Yes1,5002¢0¢$0−$30$0
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?Yes1,5007¢0¢$0−$105$0
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?Yes1,5000.6¢0¢$0−$9.00$0
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?Yes1,2003¢0¢$0−$36$0
Will GPT-5.6 be released prior to May 18, 2026?Yes1,0000.1¢0¢$0−$1.00$0
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?Yes1,0008.5¢0¢$0−$85$0
Will Google have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026?Yes1,0005¢0¢$0−$50$0
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Yes80015¢0¢$0−$120$0
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 24, 2026?No61419¢0¢$0−$117$0
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 22, 2026?No56414¢0¢$0−$79$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
SELL YesWill Syria join the Abraham Accords before 2027?6.3¢312$2064%34
SELL NoIsrael and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?86¢305$26264%34
BUY NoIsrael and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?90.6¢305$27664%34
BUY YesWill Syria join the Abraham Accords before 2027?8¢312$2564%34
BUY YesWill Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027?0.1¢8,888$8.8964%34
BUY YesWill Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027?0.1¢1,000$1.0064%34
BUY YesWill Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?6.3¢300$1964%34
BUY YesWill the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?99.7¢56$5664%34
BUY YesEpstein suicide note released by May 8?0.2¢1,000$2.0064%34
BUY NoWill Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 24, 2026?19¢20$3.8064%34
BUY NoWill Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 22, 2026?14¢80$1164%34
BUY NoWill Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 23, 2026?17¢38$6.3864%34
BUY YesWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?6.4¢1,558$10064%34
BUY YesUS forces enter Iran by March 14?17¢1,800$30664%34
BUY YesWill Trump say "Judy Shelton" during the State of the Union address?2.1¢732$1564%34
BUY YesWill Trump nominate no one before 2027?0.4¢10.0k$4064%34
BUY YesWill Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?3.6¢8,412$30364%34
BUY NoWill Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?5.7¢4,177$23864%34
SELL NoWill Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?66.1¢926$61264%34
SELL NoUS strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?89¢3,820$3,40064%34