| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | No | 40.0k | 92¢ | 91.5¢ | $36.6k | −$200 | $0 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | No | 50.1k | 53.5¢ | 63.5¢ | $31.8k | +$5,037 | −$1.61 | |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 30.2k | 55.5¢ | 62.5¢ | $18.9k | +$2,112 | +$3,927 | |
| Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 21.1k | 2.2¢ | 53.7¢ | $11.3k | +$10.8k | +$7,822 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | No | 11.4k | 76.7¢ | 84.5¢ | $9,669 | +$887 | +$5.93 | |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 62.9k | 14.6¢ | 13.5¢ | $8,498 | −$715 | −$1,469 | |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 10.5k | 66.6¢ | 69.7¢ | $7,303 | +$320 | −$216 | |
| Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | No | 6,930 | 99.6¢ | 99.7¢ | $6,906 | +$3.48 | $0 | |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | Yes | 10.0k | 66¢ | 62.5¢ | $6,250 | −$350 | −$18 | |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 8,592 | 64.3¢ | 71.3¢ | $6,122 | +$595 | −$474 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Yes | 25.5k | 18.2¢ | 18.5¢ | $4,710 | +$79 | +$10.9k | |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | No | 17.9k | 29.9¢ | 22.5¢ | $4,031 | −$1,333 | −$3,803 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 19.4k | 21.6¢ | 20.5¢ | $3,984 | −$212 | +$13.9k | |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | 25.0k | 15.4¢ | 15.5¢ | $3,875 | +$34 | +$31.3k | |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | Yes | 6,156 | 58.1¢ | 57.8¢ | $3,555 | −$20 | $0 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? | No | 7,659 | 47.2¢ | 44.5¢ | $3,408 | −$208 | $0 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | No | 3,462 | 86¢ | 90.5¢ | $3,133 | +$156 | −$4,710 | |
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31? | No | 3,099 | 84.2¢ | 98.6¢ | $3,054 | +$443 | −$112 | |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 20.0k | 12¢ | 14.5¢ | $2,900 | +$494 | −$67 | |
| Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 6,000 | 47¢ | 44.5¢ | $2,670 | −$150 | $0 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 4,932 | 54.7¢ | 48.9¢ | $2,409 | −$291 | −$878 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? | Yes | 24.2k | 10.5¢ | 9.5¢ | $2,303 | −$241 | −$1,149 | |
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | No | 8,000 | 28¢ | 26.5¢ | $2,120 | −$120 | +$8,297 | |
| Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | Yes | 5,350 | 31.7¢ | 38.5¢ | $2,060 | +$364 | $0 | |
| Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 12.4k | 1.4¢ | 16.3¢ | $2,014 | +$1,838 | $0 | |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | Yes | 39.8k | 12.7¢ | 4.9¢ | $1,952 | −$3,115 | +$675 | |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 2,205 | 83¢ | 85.7¢ | $1,889 | +$59 | +$11.4k | |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | No | 2,098 | 37.3¢ | 89¢ | $1,867 | +$1,086 | +$2,125 | |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 8,140 | 28.7¢ | 22.5¢ | $1,831 | −$501 | −$986 | |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | No | 2,000 | 82¢ | 89.5¢ | $1,790 | +$150 | −$373 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | No | 2,755 | 64.3¢ | 64¢ | $1,763 | −$9.20 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 1,984 | 77.2¢ | 81.5¢ | $1,617 | +$85 | −$574 | |
| Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | Yes | 2,008 | 85.4¢ | 79.5¢ | $1,597 | −$119 | −$1,546 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027? | No | 1,992 | 67.1¢ | 67.5¢ | $1,345 | +$7.05 | +$67 | |
| UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026? | No | 1,247 | 93.9¢ | 97.6¢ | $1,217 | +$46 | $0 | |
| Will Mykola Kuleba win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 12.4k | 1.4¢ | 9.5¢ | $1,178 | +$1,001 | $0 | |
| Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 3,000 | 29¢ | 38.5¢ | $1,155 | +$285 | $0 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? | No | 3,000 | 30¢ | 38.5¢ | $1,155 | +$255 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? | Yes | 1,445 | 55¢ | 74.5¢ | $1,077 | +$282 | −$185 | |
| Will Save the Children win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 12.4k | 1.4¢ | 7.9¢ | $973 | +$797 | $0 | |
| Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | Yes | 6,046 | 25.7¢ | 15.9¢ | $958 | −$594 | −$249 | |
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026? | Yes | 1,227 | 82.2¢ | 77.5¢ | $951 | −$57 | −$495 | |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 1,400 | 67.8¢ | 62.5¢ | $875 | −$74 | $0 | |
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31? | No | 994 | 72¢ | 85.5¢ | $849 | +$134 | −$135 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? | Yes | 6,412 | 11¢ | 11.5¢ | $737 | +$32 | −$786 | |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? | Yes | 8,078 | 11.4¢ | 8.5¢ | $687 | −$237 | −$125 | |
| Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 4,000 | 13¢ | 15.5¢ | $620 | +$100 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026? | No | 655 | 65.4¢ | 90¢ | $590 | +$161 | $0 | |
| Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? | Yes | 728 | 64.7¢ | 80.5¢ | $586 | +$115 | $0 | |
| Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 12.4k | 1.4¢ | 4.7¢ | $576 | +$400 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026? | Yes | 4,199 | 21.7¢ | 12.5¢ | $525 | −$388 | +$1.87 | |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 3,617 | 8¢ | 14.5¢ | $524 | +$235 | $0 | |
| Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 36.0k | 0.8¢ | 1.4¢ | $486 | +$199 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? | Yes | 700 | 68.2¢ | 68.5¢ | $480 | +$2.10 | $0 | |
| Will Committee to Protect Journalists win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 12.4k | 1.4¢ | 3.3¢ | $403 | +$227 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 2,090 | 28.3¢ | 18.5¢ | $387 | −$206 | $0 | |
| Will Hussam Abu Safiya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 12.4k | 1.4¢ | 3.1¢ | $378 | +$202 | $0 | |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | Yes | 5,476 | 19.2¢ | 6.5¢ | $356 | −$694 | −$879 | |
| Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026? | Yes | 1,168 | 34.8¢ | 26.5¢ | $310 | −$97 | $0 | |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | Yes | 470 | 73.4¢ | 62.5¢ | $294 | −$51 | −$149 | |
| Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027? | No | 295 | 86.3¢ | 95.6¢ | $282 | +$28 | −$110 | |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? | Yes | 5,010 | 12¢ | 5.5¢ | $276 | −$328 | −$1,645 | |
| Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? | No | 300 | 87¢ | 90.5¢ | $272 | +$11 | $0 | |
| Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 12.4k | 1.4¢ | 2.2¢ | $267 | +$90 | $0 | |
| Will the International Criminal Court win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 12.4k | 1.4¢ | 2.1¢ | $260 | +$84 | $0 | |
| Will the International Space Station win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 12.4k | 1.4¢ | 2.1¢ | $254 | +$78 | $0 | |
| Will Doctors Without Borders win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 12.4k | 1.4¢ | 2.1¢ | $254 | +$78 | $0 | |
| Will Ilham Tohti win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 12.4k | 1.4¢ | 1.9¢ | $236 | +$59 | $0 | |
| Will Sara Al-Saqqa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 12.4k | 1.4¢ | 1.9¢ | $236 | +$59 | $0 | |
| US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 6,343 | 4.8¢ | 3.5¢ | $222 | −$85 | +$90 | |
| Will the U.S. lift CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by October 31, 2026? | No | 242 | 71.6¢ | 90¢ | $218 | +$45 | $0 | |
| Will UNHCR win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 12.4k | 1.4¢ | 1.7¢ | $211 | +$34 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 784 | 44.5¢ | 25.5¢ | $200 | −$149 | +$97 | |
| Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31? | Yes | 3,000 | 9¢ | 6.5¢ | $195 | −$75 | $0 | |
| Will Mark Carney win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 12.4k | 1.4¢ | 1.5¢ | $186 | +$9.58 | $0 | |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? | Yes | 798 | 20¢ | 22.5¢ | $180 | +$20 | $0 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? | No | 176 | 92.8¢ | 97.5¢ | $171 | +$8.28 | −$2,092 | |
| Will Jimmy Lai win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 12.4k | 1.4¢ | 1.4¢ | $167 | −$9.02 | $0 | |
| Will ICRC win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 12.4k | 1.4¢ | 1.3¢ | $161 | −$15 | $0 | |
| Will the U.S. lift CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by December 31, 2026? | No | 280 | 50.1¢ | 55.5¢ | $156 | +$15 | $0 | |
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 652 | 29.9¢ | 23.5¢ | $153 | −$42 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? | Yes | 556 | 37¢ | 26¢ | $145 | −$61 | $0 | |
| Will Chow Hang-tung win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 12.4k | 1.4¢ | 1.2¢ | $143 | −$34 | $0 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? | Yes | 6,509 | 4.6¢ | 2¢ | $130 | −$169 | −$2,238 | |
| Will Reporters Without Borders win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 12.4k | 1.4¢ | 1.1¢ | $130 | −$46 | $0 | |
| Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 1,721 | 13.7¢ | 7.5¢ | $129 | −$107 | $0 | |
| Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 7,976 | 1.4¢ | 1.6¢ | $128 | +$14 | +$2,147 | |
| Will Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 12.4k | 1.4¢ | 0.9¢ | $112 | −$65 | $0 | |
| Will World Central Kitchen win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 12.4k | 1.4¢ | 0.9¢ | $105 | −$71 | $0 | |
| Will the International Peace Research Association win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 12.4k | 1.4¢ | 0.8¢ | $99 | −$77 | $0 | |
| Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | Yes | 10,000 | 1.2¢ | 1¢ | $95 | −$25 | $0 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 2,136 | 29.2¢ | 4.2¢ | $89 | −$536 | −$986 | |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 103 | 85¢ | 84.5¢ | $87 | −$0.52 | $0 | |
| Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 12.4k | 1.4¢ | 0.7¢ | $87 | −$90 | $0 | |
| Will the Parents Circle – Families Forum win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 12.4k | 1.4¢ | 0.7¢ | $87 | −$90 | $0 | |
| Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 12.4k | 1.4¢ | 0.7¢ | $87 | −$90 | $0 | |
| Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 12.4k | 1.4¢ | 0.7¢ | $81 | −$96 | $0 | |
| Will the International Association of Judges win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 12.4k | 1.4¢ | 0.5¢ | $62 | −$114 | $0 | |
| Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 12.4k | 1.4¢ | 0.4¢ | $50 | −$127 | $0 | |
| Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 145 | 23¢ | 31¢ | $45 | +$12 | $0 | |
