PnL all-time−$5,564vol $2.81M
PnL 30d+$1,769gains $1,126 · losses $4.11
PnL 7d+$1,716win rate 7d 100.0%
Win rate65.5%adj 64.9% · 30d 90.0%
Open value$2,413cash n/a
Positions6 / 1,256open / all-time
Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak
Account age1.0ylast trade 5d ago
Equity curve · cumulative PnL
PnL−$5,445below peak −$6,056Oct 12
SharpScore inputs
38/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 65.5% · shrunk toward 50%62
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d83
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0
Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.
Best markets
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? · Noclosed+$610Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Noclosed+$375Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? · Yesclosed+$353Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Noclosed+$327Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? · Noclosed+$302
Worst markets
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? · Noclosed−$2,576MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? · Noclosed−$2,162Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? · Yesopen−$1,724Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 18, 2026? · Yesclosed−$1,337US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? · Noclosed−$1,253
Open positions · 6
| Market | Outcome | Avg entry | Now | Realized | Ends | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extended FDV above $3B one day after launch? | No | 1,939 | 97.8¢ | 98¢ | $1,901 | +$4.43 | +$0.12 | |
| Will Extended launch a token by December 31 2026? | Yes | 357 | 79.1¢ | 74.3¢ | $265 | −$17 | −$182 | |
| Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch? | No | 354 | 88.7¢ | 56.6¢ | $200 | −$114 | −$108 | |
| Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? | Yes | 106 | 54.6¢ | 44¢ | $46 | −$11 | +$61 | |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? | Yes | 1,988 | 92.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,843 | +$119 | |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31? | Yes | 1,500 | 0.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.50 | $0 |
Recent trades
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