| Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 13.6k | 56.2¢ | 61.5¢ | $8,367 | +$728 | $0 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | No | 9,536 | 63.5¢ | 63.5¢ | $6,056 | −$2.31 | $0 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? | No | 8,836 | 55¢ | 61.5¢ | $5,434 | +$574 | $0 | |
| Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? | No | 5,477 | 85¢ | 90.5¢ | $4,957 | +$302 | $0 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? | No | 3,814 | 56¢ | 68.5¢ | $2,613 | +$477 | $0 | |
| Will Maria Bartiromo be the next White House Press Secretary? | No | 2,400 | 90.2¢ | 93.4¢ | $2,242 | +$76 | $0 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | No | 4,324 | 41.1¢ | 51.4¢ | $2,223 | +$445 | +$714 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | No | 3,000 | 72¢ | 70.5¢ | $2,115 | −$45 | $0 | |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 3,000 | 67¢ | 63.5¢ | $1,905 | −$105 | $0 | |
| Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026? | Yes | 3,338 | 52¢ | 54.5¢ | $1,819 | +$83 | $0 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? | No | 4,000 | 44¢ | 44.5¢ | $1,780 | +$20 | $0 | |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 60% or higher? | No | 1,557 | 93.5¢ | 95.2¢ | $1,482 | +$26 | $0 | |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on October 8? | No | 1,341 | 99.6¢ | 100¢ | $1,341 | +$4.80 | −$0.24 | |
| Will Lindsay Clancy be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year? | No | 2,000 | 78¢ | 63.5¢ | $1,270 | −$290 | $0 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on October 8? | No | 1,249 | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | $1,249 | +$1.57 | −$0.08 | |
| Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | No | 1,210 | 75¢ | 83.5¢ | $1,011 | +$103 | $0 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026? | No | 4,389 | 26¢ | 22.5¢ | $988 | −$154 | −$29 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | No | 1,250 | 56.2¢ | 64¢ | $800 | +$98 | +$148 | |
| Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026? | Yes | 3,156 | 26¢ | 22.5¢ | $710 | −$110 | $0 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on October 8? | Yes | 605 | 93.2¢ | 100¢ | $605 | +$41 | −$1.92 | |
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 785 | 72¢ | 73.5¢ | $577 | +$12 | $0 | |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | No | 611 | 81¢ | 93.5¢ | $572 | +$76 | $0 | |
| Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? | Yes | 2,090 | 10.5¢ | 23.5¢ | $491 | +$272 | $0 | |
| Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 19.8k | 2.3¢ | 2.5¢ | $484 | +$30 | $0 | |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | No | 3,000 | 25¢ | 15.5¢ | $465 | −$285 | $0 | |
| Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary? | Yes | 3,422 | 13.9¢ | 12.4¢ | $424 | −$51 | $0 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 2,000 | 22¢ | 20.5¢ | $410 | −$30 | $0 | |
| Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026? | Yes | 565 | 55.5¢ | 68.5¢ | $387 | +$73 | $0 | |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on October 8? | No | 299 | 90.2¢ | 100¢ | $299 | +$29 | −$1.32 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on October 8? | Yes | 253 | 60.7¢ | 100¢ | $253 | +$99 | $0 | |
| US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31? | No | 1,778 | 20.4¢ | 13.5¢ | $240 | −$123 | $0 | |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | Yes | 2,097 | 13.1¢ | 10.5¢ | $220 | −$54 | −$2.98 | |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? | Yes | 4,000 | 9¢ | 5.5¢ | $220 | −$140 | $0 | |
| US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 9? | No | 3,800 | 8.4¢ | 4.5¢ | $169 | −$150 | $0 | |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? | No | 2,226 | 9.2¢ | 7.5¢ | $167 | −$38 | $0 | |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 604 | 48¢ | 25.5¢ | $154 | −$136 | $0 | |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | No | 600 | 44¢ | 22.5¢ | $135 | −$129 | −$13 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? | Yes | 864 | 8¢ | 11.5¢ | $99 | +$30 | −$150 | |
| Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 10.0k | 0.8¢ | 0.9¢ | $90 | +$10 | $0 | |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | Yes | 186 | 36¢ | 42.5¢ | $79 | +$12 | −$41 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on October 8? | No | 65 | 96.8¢ | 100¢ | $65 | +$2.10 | −$0.10 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? | Yes | 3,518 | 5¢ | 1.8¢ | $63 | −$113 | −$68 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on October 8? | No | 21 | 93.8¢ | 100¢ | $21 | +$1.30 | −$0.06 | |
| Will the Democratic Party win the ID-02 House seat? | Yes | 441 | 4.5¢ | 3.8¢ | $17 | −$2.95 | $0 | |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 23 | 12¢ | 14.5¢ | $3.35 | +$0.58 | $0 | |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on October 8? | Yes | 828 | 3¢ | 0.1¢ | $0.41 | −$24 | $0 | |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on October 8? | Yes | 181 | 21.3¢ | 0.1¢ | $0.09 | −$39 | $0 | |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | Yes | 107k | 1.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,146 | −$51 | |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | No | 10.9k | 13¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,424 | +$34 | |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7? | No | 4,076 | 10.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$428 | $0 | |
| Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 1, 2026? | No | 3,730 | 6.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$242 | +$6.74 | |
| US x Yemen ceasefire continues through September 30? | No | 3,449 | 6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$208 | −$0.61 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026? | Yes | 2,925 | 3.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$102 | $0 | |
| US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by September 30? | Yes | 2,661 | 11¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$293 | −$10 | |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 20? | No | 2,050 | 6.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$129 | −$27 | |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on October 5? | Down | 2,000 | 31¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$620 | $0 | |
| Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15? | No | 2,000 | 67.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,357 | $0 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on September 22? | Yes | 1,994 | 6.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$133 | −$1.70 | |
| Next White House Press Secretary announced by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 1,362 | 5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$68 | $0 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on September 20? | Yes | 1,319 | 25.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$336 | −$11 | |
| Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 71°F or below on September 23? | Yes | 1,288 | 1.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$18 | −$0.37 | |
| Will Netanyahu use a visual aid during his UNGA speech? | No | 1,226 | 36.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$451 | −$6.28 | |
| Trump renames AI by December 31? | No | 1,161 | 25¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$290 | −$8.59 | |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on September 22? | Yes | 1,029 | 3.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$34 | −$0.27 | |
| Next White House Press Secretary announced by October 7, 2026? | Yes | 997 | 9.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$99 | −$3.57 | |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on September 9? | Yes | 907 | 16.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$148 | −$2.34 | |
| Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats? | No | 700 | 1.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$11 | $0 | |
| Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 96°F or higher on September 9? | Yes | 694 | 16.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$112 | −$3.47 | |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on September 21? | Yes | 579 | 19.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$111 | −$4.31 | |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on September 19? | Yes | 578 | 6.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$39 | $0 | |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on September 22? | Yes | 533 | 13.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$73 | −$1.54 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 98°F or higher on October 6? | Yes | 526 | 22.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$119 | −$4.62 | |
| Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? | Yes | 524 | 24¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$126 | $0 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 59°F or below on September 20? | Yes | 500 | 0.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.45 | −$0.07 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on September 18? | Yes | 500 | 2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$10 | −$1.61 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on October 6? | Yes | 500 | 6.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$30 | $0 | |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on September 6? | Yes | 500 | 3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$15 | $0 | |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on September 22? | Yes | 479 | 0.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$0.48 | $0 | |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on September 30? | Yes | 474 | 20¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$95 | $0 | |
| Spain snap election called in 2026? | No | 436 | 49.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$216 | −$1.35 | |
| Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in August? | No | 427 | 67¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$286 | −$4.65 | |
| Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in August? | Yes | 412 | 55.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$229 | −$5.09 | |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on September 12? | Yes | 400 | 14¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$56 | $0 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on September 2? | Yes | 400 | 16¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$64 | $0 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on September 23? | Yes | 371 | 1.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$6.86 | −$0.34 | |
| Trump renames AI by September 30? | No | 367 | 44.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$165 | −$53 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on September 6? | Yes | 361 | 1.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$4.33 | $0 | |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on September 20? | Yes | 336 | 12.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$41 | −$0.22 | |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on September 23? | Yes | 310 | 7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$22 | −$0.02 | |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on September 24? | Yes | 300 | 22¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$66 | $0 | |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on September 19? | Yes | 300 | 2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$5.99 | $0 | |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on September 24? | Yes | 266 | 3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$7.99 | −$0.37 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on September 14? | Yes | 224 | 4.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$9.19 | −$0.42 | |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on September 2? | Yes | 211 | 5.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$11 | −$0.48 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on October 6? | Yes | 201 | 0.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$0.80 | $0 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on September 23? | Yes | 200 | 49¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$98 | $0 | |
| Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 92-93°F on September 9? | No | 200 | 84¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$168 | $0 | |
| Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by November 30? | No | 164 | 27¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$44 | −$33 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on September 22? | Yes | 138 | 0.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$0.28 | −$0.01 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 23°C on October 3? | Yes | 102 | 15¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$15 | −$0.59 | |