sharpside
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0xf51…ca1b

0xf51…ca1b
1y+Weather
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$9,123vol $963k
PnL 30d+$2,462gains $3,105 · losses $2,120
PnL 7d+$856win rate 7d 39.3%
Win rate41.4%adj 41.7% · 30d 41.4%
Open value$3,051cash n/a
Positions89 / 11,439open / all-time
Max drawdown−3.2%of equity peak
Account age1.1ylast trade 6m ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$10.0kbelow peak $0Oct 12

SharpScore inputs

61/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale57
Adjusted win rateraw 41.4% · shrunk toward 50%4
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d100
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity97

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 89

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will the lowest 2026 Great Salt Lake elevation be 4,189.3 or 4,189.4 ft?Yes44045.5¢77.5¢$341+$141+$18
Will Koguma peak as a Very strong typhoon?Yes24069¢97.8¢$235+$69+$8.00
Will Simon peak at Category 4?Yes23572.1¢96.9¢$228+$58+$10
Will Koguma peak as a Violent typhoon?No22886.7¢97.8¢$223+$25−$0.55
Will Isaias peak at Category 3?Yes18884¢99.3¢$187+$29−$0.14
Will Lake Mead's minimum elevation fall below 1,028 ft?Yes25645.2¢44.5¢$114−$1.69−$0.02
Will there be 90 or more tornadoes in the US in October 2026?No11081.1¢79.7¢$88−$1.63$0
Will November be Melbourne's wettest month of 2026?No10082.6¢77.5¢$78−$5.10$0
All-time Pacific Category 5 hurricane record broken in 2026?No10956.9¢66.5¢$73+$10−$36
Will Simon peak at Category 5?No7392.8¢95.9¢$70+$2.28−$35
Will October be Melbourne's wettest month of 2026?Yes10079.2¢70¢$70−$9.20+$0.03
Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?No7081.3¢90.5¢$63+$6.41+$5.11
Will a hurricane make landfall in Alabama by November 30, 2026?No5890.4¢95.5¢$56+$2.96−$0.65
Will Hawaii reach Coral Bleaching Alert Level 1 by December 31, 2026?No7476.3¢75.5¢$56−$0.59−$28
Andrew Garfield as Spider-Man?No7581.7¢69.5¢$52−$9.10−$0.51
Will BP be acquired before 2027?No5097.1¢95.4¢$48−$0.85$0
Will the lowest 2026 Great Salt Lake elevation be below 4,189.3 ft?Yes3885.4¢12.3¢$48+$26$0
Jon Favreau as Happy Hogan?No9550.1¢45.5¢$43−$4.36−$0.27
Will the lowest Baton Rouge river level be 6.00 ft or more by November 30?No6069.9¢69.4¢$42−$0.29$0
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on October 13?No5078.3¢78¢$39−$0.13−$2.45
Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation stay above 3,510 ft?Yes6268.2¢60¢$37−$5.12+$3.89
Will it rain in San Francisco, CA on October 11?No4299.7¢87.5¢$37−$5.14$0
Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii by November 30, 2026?No4088.1¢90¢$36+$0.74+$1.73
Brie Larson as Captain Marvel?No7051.7¢50.5¢$35−$0.88−$0.01
Will Lake Mead's minimum elevation be at least 1,028 but below 1,033 ft?Yes7643.8¢44.6¢$34+$0.57−$0.10
Will Isaias peak at Category 4?No3489.4¢99.9¢$34+$3.54+$0.20
Will exactly 8 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026?Yes6050¢50.5¢$30+$0.30+$0.15
Will it rain in Chicago, IL on October 12?No3087¢95.6¢$29+$2.58$0
Will it rain in Atlanta, GA on October 11?No5993.2¢48.5¢$29−$26$0
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?No3092.2¢94¢$28+$0.55+$0.70
Will it rain in Seattle, WA on October 11?No3299.9¢80¢$26−$6.37$0
Will it rain in New Orleans, LA on October 11?No2599.9¢99¢$25−$0.22$0
Will there be 125 or more tornadoes in the US in September 2026?No2593.6¢97¢$24+$0.84$0
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?No2597.7¢97.6¢$24−$0.04−$0.06
Will Lucid announce bankruptcy before 2027?No2596.8¢94.7¢$24−$0.52$0
Will a hurricane make landfall in New Jersey by November 30, 2026?No2596.5¢94.6¢$24−$0.49+$0.03
Will a hurricane make landfall in South Carolina by November 30, 2026?No2290.9¢96¢$21+$1.11+$1.71
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on October 13?Yes4250.9¢50¢$21−$0.36$0
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on October 13?No2096.9¢97.1¢$19+$0.04+$0.13
Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation be at least 3,500 but below 3,510 ft?Yes5539.4¢35¢$19−$2.43−$12
Will a hurricane make landfall in Texas by November 30, 2026?No2088¢95.5¢$19+$1.50+$0.37
Will the lowest St. Louis river level be 3.00 ft or more by November 30?No2571¢70.5¢$18−$0.12$0
Will it snow in Salt Lake City, UT by November 30?Yes2181.9¢80¢$17−$0.39+$0.81
Will Seattle have between 1.75 and 2.5 inches of precipitation in October?Yes6520¢24¢$16+$2.60$0
Elizabeth Olsen as Scarlet Witch?No3158.2¢49.5¢$15−$2.71+$0.17
Will it snow in Minneapolis, MN by October 31?No5034.5¢29.5¢$15−$2.50$0
Will it snow in Buffalo, NY by October 31?No2831.1¢49.5¢$14+$5.14+$2.89
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?Yes2550¢54.5¢$14+$1.14+$0.52
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Yes6003.4¢2.3¢$14−$6.90$0
Will it snow in Boston, MA by November 30?Yes1778.5¢80.5¢$13+$0.33+$0.27
Will it snow in Boston, MA by November 15?No4236.2¢31¢$13−$2.20−$0.01
Will it snow in Denver, CO by October 31?No3137.4¢37¢$11−$0.13−$0.14
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on October 13?Yes5017¢22.5¢$11+$2.75$0
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes8501.2¢1.3¢$11+$0.42$0
Will NYC have less than 3 inches of precipitation in October?Yes3033¢34.5¢$10+$0.45$0
Will Canada’s 2026 inflation be between 3.0% and 3.4%?Yes2636.7¢38.9¢$10+$0.55−$0.82
Will Canada’s 2026 inflation be between 2.5% and 2.9%?Yes5536.1¢18.2¢$9.98−$9.88−$12
Will there be between 20 and 34 tornadoes in the US in October 2026?Yes6519.7¢15.4¢$9.98−$2.83$0
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on October 12?Yes2445¢40.5¢$9.56−$1.06$0
Will it rain in Boston, MA on October 11?Yes1099¢87.5¢$8.74−$1.16$0
Will NYC have between 3 and 4.25 inches of precipitation in October?Yes2321¢36¢$8.44+$3.52$0
Will Seattle have less than 1.75 inches of precipitation in October?Yes2535¢33.5¢$8.38−$0.38$0
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 21°C on October 13?Yes2044¢37¢$7.40−$1.40$0
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on October 12?Yes2028¢35¢$7.00+$1.40$0
Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be at least 4.5%?No794.3¢97.3¢$6.77+$0.21−$0.07
Will Workhorse announce bankruptcy before 2027?Yes4035.5¢15¢$6.00−$8.20$0
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on October 12?Yes3711.1¢15.2¢$5.64+$1.53$0
Will there be under 20 tornadoes in the US in October 2026?Yes6016.7¢9¢$5.40−$4.60$0
Will it rain in Phoenix, AZ on October 11?Yes1099.9¢50.2¢$5.01−$4.95$0
Halle Berry as Storm?No681.8¢84¢$4.87+$0.13+$5.06
Will exactly 8 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026?No1063¢49.5¢$4.72−$1.29$0
Will it snow in Chicago, IL by November 15?No2522¢15¢$3.75−$1.75$0
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on October 12?Yes1502.3¢2.1¢$3.07−$0.42$0
Will there be between 75 and 124 tornadoes in the US in September 2026?Yes671¢2.7¢$1.80+$1.13+$0.14
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes1004¢1.6¢$1.55−$2.45$0
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on October 13?Yes1004¢1.3¢$1.25−$2.75$0
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on October 14?Yes816¢16.5¢$1.24+$0.04$0
Will US GDP growth in 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?Yes7111.8¢1.5¢$1.06−$7.30$0
Will Drake be the top artist for 2026?Yes307.5¢3¢$0.90−$1.35$0
Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 2.5% and 2.9%?Yes4510¢1.4¢$0.63−$3.88−$0.36
Will there be 7+ hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?Yes5620.4¢0.1¢$0.28−$1.98+$1.11
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on October 12?Yes11515.5¢0.2¢$0.23−$18$0
Will Koguma peak as a Strong typhoon?Yes8420.8¢0.2¢$0.13−$17−$15
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on October 12?Yes505¢0.2¢$0.07−$2.42$0
Will a hurricane make landfall in Florida by November 30, 2026?No2055¢0.3¢$0.05−$11+$1.38
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on October 12?Yes507¢0.1¢$0.03−$3.48$0
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on October 12?Yes2054¢0.1¢$0.01−$11$0
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C on October 12?Yes1067¢0.1¢$0.01−$6.70$0
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 9?No531¢0¢$0−$1.55$0

Recent trades

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TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY YesWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on October 14?16¢8$1.2041%61
BUY YesWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on October 12?40.5¢14$5.5141%61
SELL NoWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on October 12?99.9¢52$5241%61
BUY YesWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on October 12?2.9¢50$1.4541%61
BUY YesWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on October 12?45.7¢28$1341%61
BUY YesWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on October 12?36¢13$4.6841%61
SELL YesWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on October 11?99.9¢100$10041%61
BUY NoWill the lowest St. Louis river level be 3.00 ft or more by November 30?71¢25$1841%61
BUY YesWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on October 12?8.8¢50$4.4041%61
BUY NoWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on October 12?8.3¢52$4.3041%61
BUY YesWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on October 12?51¢25$1341%61
BUY YesWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on October 12?20¢12$2.4041%61
BUY YesWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on October 12?19.5¢15$2.9241%61
BUY YesWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on October 12?15.2¢23$3.5041%61
BUY NoWill the lowest Baton Rouge river level be 6.00 ft or more by November 30?69.9¢60$4241%61
BUY YesWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C on October 12?67¢10$6.7041%61
BUY NoWill it rain in San Francisco, CA on October 11?99.9¢17$1741%61
SELL NoWill it rain in Los Angeles, CA on October 11?81¢5$4.0441%61
BUY YesWill there be between 20 and 34 tornadoes in the US in October 2026?17.8¢25$4.4541%61
BUY NoWill there be 90 or more tornadoes in the US in October 2026?76.1¢40$3041%61