| Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | No | 15.8k | 96.2¢ | 97.4¢ | $15.4k | +$187 | $0 | |
| Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | No | 10,000 | 99.4¢ | 99.8¢ | $9,975 | +$35 | $0 | |
| Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026? | No | 12.3k | 63.1¢ | 73.5¢ | $9,069 | +$1,285 | +$23 | |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31? | No | 6,882 | 67.6¢ | 80.5¢ | $5,540 | +$888 | +$95 | |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30, 2027? | No | 6,828 | 48.8¢ | 55.5¢ | $3,790 | +$455 | $0 | |
| Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt? | No | 14.2k | 32.9¢ | 20.5¢ | $2,912 | −$1,762 | +$734 | |
| Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 3,000 | 93.6¢ | 95.5¢ | $2,864 | +$55 | $0 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 5,281 | 54.8¢ | 47.9¢ | $2,532 | −$362 | +$36 | |
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | No | 3,000 | 48.5¢ | 83.5¢ | $2,505 | +$1,050 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day? | No | 2,451 | 96.9¢ | 97.4¢ | $2,388 | +$13 | $0 | |
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | No | 2,907 | 31.3¢ | 79.5¢ | $2,311 | +$1,401 | $0 | |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027? | No | 4,913 | 46.8¢ | 44.5¢ | $2,186 | −$113 | +$5.31 | |
| Will Trump's approval rating hit 30% in 2026? | No | 2,120 | 92.9¢ | 96¢ | $2,035 | +$66 | +$12 | |
| Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? | No | 1,998 | 80.8¢ | 96.8¢ | $1,933 | +$318 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? | No | 2,428 | 45.4¢ | 73.5¢ | $1,784 | +$681 | +$278 | |
| Will AfD be in the next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government? | No | 1,404 | 96.2¢ | 97.4¢ | $1,367 | +$18 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | No | 1,499 | 31.6¢ | 85.5¢ | $1,282 | +$808 | $0 | |
| Will Erling Haaland be the #1 searched person on Google this year? | No | 1,500 | 84.7¢ | 84¢ | $1,260 | −$9.99 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? | No | 1,238 | 80.4¢ | 95¢ | $1,176 | +$181 | +$2.06 | |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 5,289 | 27.7¢ | 21.5¢ | $1,137 | −$326 | $0 | |
| Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2028? | No | 1,653 | 34.4¢ | 64.5¢ | $1,066 | +$497 | +$109 | |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by February 28, 2027? | No | 1,345 | 66.5¢ | 76.5¢ | $1,029 | +$134 | +$99 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027? | Yes | 1,500 | 70.7¢ | 68.5¢ | $1,027 | −$32 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? | No | 1,002 | 84¢ | 95.9¢ | $961 | +$119 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI announce that it has resumed training on October 14, 2026? | No | 949 | 89.6¢ | 97.9¢ | $929 | +$78 | $0 | |
| Iran full airspace closure by December 31? | Yes | 3,924 | 21.6¢ | 23.5¢ | $922 | +$76 | +$215 | |
| Another Fed rate hike in 2026? | No | 4,000 | 16.7¢ | 20.5¢ | $820 | +$150 | $0 | |
| Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year? | No | 818 | 91¢ | 94.5¢ | $773 | +$29 | $0 | |
| Will AI solve 3 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? | No | 712 | 94.8¢ | 99.6¢ | $709 | +$34 | $0 | |
| Will AfD be in the next Berlin state government? | No | 623 | 95.7¢ | 97.8¢ | $609 | +$13 | +$2.88 | |
| Will FDP be in the next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government? | No | 600 | 94.4¢ | 98.2¢ | $589 | +$22 | $0 | |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | No | 675 | 80¢ | 81¢ | $547 | +$6.75 | $0 | |
| Will Christopher Nolan win Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards? | No | 1,395 | 32.1¢ | 38¢ | $530 | +$83 | $0 | |
| Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | Yes | 1,195 | 42.1¢ | 43.5¢ | $520 | +$17 | +$0.09 | |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | No | 500 | 70¢ | 84.5¢ | $423 | +$73 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026? | No | 403 | 32.2¢ | 100¢ | $403 | +$273 | $0 | |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? | No | 500 | 42¢ | 80.5¢ | $403 | +$193 | $0 | |
| Will Republicans win white voters in the midterms? | Yes | 500 | 90¢ | 79.5¢ | $398 | −$53 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO day? | No | 402 | 92¢ | 98¢ | $393 | +$24 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? | No | 373 | 31¢ | 98.9¢ | $369 | +$253 | −$5.00 | |
| Will Nicolás Maduro rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2026? | No | 514 | 69.9¢ | 67.5¢ | $347 | −$12 | $0 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? | Yes | 17.8k | 12.9¢ | 1.8¢ | $321 | −$1,981 | −$613 | |
| Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | No | 500 | 22¢ | 63.5¢ | $318 | +$208 | $0 | |
| Will Lance Oppenheim win Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards? | No | 320 | 82.5¢ | 99¢ | $317 | +$53 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | No | 513 | 32¢ | 58.5¢ | $300 | +$136 | $0 | |
| Will SPD be in the next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government? | Yes | 300 | 80.6¢ | 95.6¢ | $287 | +$45 | $0 | |
| NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | No | 300 | 88¢ | 91¢ | $273 | +$9.00 | $0 | |
| Will Fabian Ruiz finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | No | 300 | 89.9¢ | 88.6¢ | $266 | −$4.05 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 3,485 | 9.1¢ | 7.6¢ | $263 | −$54 | $0 | |
| OpenAI IPO before 2027? | No | 259 | 95.9¢ | 97.3¢ | $251 | +$3.49 | $0 | |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026? | No | 222 | 91¢ | 98.5¢ | $219 | +$17 | $0 | |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | No | 220 | 89.9¢ | 97.1¢ | $213 | +$16 | $0 | |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 15? | No | 200 | 80¢ | 96¢ | $192 | +$32 | $0 | |
| Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81 | No | 200 | 50¢ | 95¢ | $190 | +$90 | $0 | |
| Will Lindsay Clancy be the #1 searched person on Google this year? | Yes | 900 | 18.7¢ | 20.5¢ | $184 | +$17 | $0 | |
| Will Erling Haaland rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2026? | No | 338 | 45¢ | 53.5¢ | $181 | +$29 | $0 | |
| Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026? | No | 195 | 80¢ | 92.5¢ | $180 | +$24 | $0 | |
| U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027? | No | 187 | 82¢ | 95.5¢ | $179 | +$25 | $0 | |
| Plague pandemic in 2026? | No | 170 | 95.3¢ | 95.9¢ | $163 | +$0.94 | $0 | |
| Will BSW be in the next Berlin state government? | No | 150 | 95¢ | 94.8¢ | $142 | −$0.28 | $0 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? | Yes | 1,474 | 19.1¢ | 9.5¢ | $140 | −$141 | +$29 | |
| Will Kylian Mbappé finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | No | 500 | 38¢ | 28¢ | $140 | −$50 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? | No | 300 | 38.5¢ | 41.7¢ | $125 | +$9.60 | $0 | |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | No | 200 | 39¢ | 62.5¢ | $125 | +$47 | $0 | |
| Will MrBeast hit 524 million subscribers by October 31? | Yes | 187 | 26.4¢ | 64.5¢ | $121 | +$71 | $0 | |
| Will MrBeast hit 523 million subscribers by October 31? | Yes | 145 | 59.3¢ | 80.5¢ | $117 | +$31 | $0 | |
| Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 | No | 678 | 45¢ | 17¢ | $115 | −$190 | −$22 | |
| Will Lionel Messi finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 300 | 31¢ | 37¢ | $111 | +$18 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day? | No | 127 | 80.9¢ | 87.2¢ | $111 | +$7.94 | +$81 | |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 3,451 | 1.4¢ | 2.6¢ | $90 | +$42 | +$24 | |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day? | No | 115 | 76.3¢ | 75.5¢ | $87 | −$0.92 | +$98 | |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? | No | 101 | 72.5¢ | 80.5¢ | $81 | +$8.03 | +$124 | |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | Yes | 216 | 48¢ | 37.5¢ | $81 | −$23 | $0 | |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | No | 100 | 87¢ | 73.5¢ | $74 | −$14 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.75T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 3,436 | 4.5¢ | 2.1¢ | $70 | −$86 | $0 | |
| Will Tom Holland be the #1 searched actor on Google this year? | No | 74 | 80.3¢ | 92.1¢ | $68 | +$8.65 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? | No | 305 | 29.5¢ | 18.5¢ | $56 | −$34 | −$49 | |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 2,008 | 3.7¢ | 2.8¢ | $55 | −$19 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? | Yes | 80 | 73¢ | 68¢ | $54 | −$3.99 | $0 | |
| Will Bad Bunny rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2026? | No | 80 | 63¢ | 67.5¢ | $54 | +$3.60 | $0 | |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026? | No | 416 | 13.5¢ | 12.5¢ | $52 | −$4.24 | $0 | |
| Will CDU be in the next Berlin state government? | No | 60 | 38¢ | 78¢ | $47 | +$24 | $0 | |
| Will AI solve 1 more Millennium Prize Problem in 2026? | Yes | 300 | 36¢ | 15.5¢ | $47 | −$62 | $0 | |
| Will there be no next German Chancellor before 2028? | No | 147 | 46¢ | 31.5¢ | $46 | −$21 | −$23 | |
| Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? | No | 200 | 59¢ | 19.5¢ | $39 | −$79 | $0 | |
| Will Linke be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government? | Yes | 551 | 22.7¢ | 6.1¢ | $34 | −$91 | $0 | |
| Will Lionel Messi finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 50 | 41¢ | 65.5¢ | $33 | +$12 | $0 | |
| Nothing Ever Happens: October | Something | 500 | 12¢ | 6¢ | $30 | −$30 | $0 | |
| Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31? | Yes | 123 | 22¢ | 23¢ | $28 | +$1.23 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? | No | 69 | 13¢ | 37.5¢ | $26 | +$17 | $0 | |
| Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | No | 108 | 9¢ | 16¢ | $17 | +$7.53 | $0 | |
| Berlin State Election: Turnout Up or Down? | Down | 1,000 | 14¢ | 1.6¢ | $16 | −$124 | $0 | |
| Will SPD be in the next Berlin state government? | Yes | 20 | 76¢ | 79.5¢ | $16 | +$0.70 | $0 | |
| Will Grüne be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government? | Yes | 260 | 20.4¢ | 6.1¢ | $16 | −$37 | +$6.76 | |
| Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 30 | 32.1¢ | 52.3¢ | $16 | +$6.06 | +$989 | |
| Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2028? | Yes | 43 | 23¢ | 35.5¢ | $15 | +$5.36 | $0 | |
| Will Bitcoin hit $100k by December 31, 2026? | No | 20 | 65¢ | 72.5¢ | $15 | +$1.50 | $0 | |
| Will Jynxzi, Ron, and Los have between 120 and 149 Minecraft deaths during the marathon? | No | 300 | 46¢ | 4.4¢ | $13 | −$125 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 98 | 11.3¢ | 12.8¢ | $12 | +$1.46 | $0 | |
| Ebola pandemic in 2026? | No | 13 | 92¢ | 98.2¢ | $12 | +$0.78 | +$24 | |
