sharpside
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Traders/Unranked

0xfbd…3256

0xfbd…3256
1y+PoliticsOther
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$535vol $200k
PnL 30d−$229gains $99 · losses $130
PnL 7d+$78win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate56.8%adj 55.8% · 30d 80.0%
Open value$5,164cash n/a
Positions38 / 162open / all-time
Max drawdown−97.1%of equity peak
Account age2.0ylast trade 19d ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$274below peak −$308Oct 12

SharpScore inputs

40/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale39
Adjusted win rateraw 56.8% · shrunk toward 50%39
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable74
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d34
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity3

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House · Yesopen+$5,2012026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House · Yesclosed+$2,300Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yesclosed+$1,4192026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House · Yesclosed+$963PA-10 election: Stelson (D) vs. Perry (R) · Perryclosed+$158

Worst markets

2026 Balance of Power: Other · Yesopen−$2,8942026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House · Yesclosed−$1,9472026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House · Noopen−$1,873Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? · Yesclosed−$1,3612026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House · Noclosed−$676

Open positions · 38

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?Yes82381.6¢78.8¢$649−$23−$15
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?No60082.5¢84.5¢$507+$12$0
Will Republicans hold ≤46 Senate seats and ≤192 House seats after the 2026 midterms?No61083¢77.6¢$474−$33$0
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?Yes65077.2¢62.5¢$406−$96$0
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?No43780.5¢79.5¢$347−$4.55$0
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?No48069.8¢61.5¢$295−$40−$1.66
Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?No33090.4¢87.5¢$289−$9.45$0
Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?No30089.3¢93.5¢$281+$13$0
Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?Yes24091.1¢87.5¢$210−$8.60$0
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?Yes20082.5¢84.5¢$169+$4.00$0
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseYes50019.6¢28.5¢$143+$44+$5,156
Will the Republicans win the Oregon governor race in 2026?No16081.4¢76.5¢$122−$7.80$0
Will the Republicans win the Colorado Senate race in 2026?No10090¢98.5¢$99+$8.50$0
Will the Democrats win the Colorado Senate race in 2026?Yes10091¢98¢$98+$6.95$0
Will Chuck Schumer be the next Senate Majority Leader?Yes2102.9¢46.5¢$98+$92$0
Will the Republicans win the Kentucky Senate race in 2026?Yes10088.5¢96.8¢$97+$8.25$0
Will the Republicans win the Idaho Senate race in 2026?Yes10091¢95.3¢$95+$4.25$0
Will the Democrats win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?No10092¢93.5¢$94+$1.50$0
Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?Yes10079¢90.5¢$91+$12$0
Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026?No10079¢89.5¢$89+$10$0
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska governor race in 2026?Yes8684¢89.5¢$77+$4.74$0
Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?Yes8081¢78.5¢$63−$2.00$0
Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?Yes6486¢93.5¢$60+$4.81$0
Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader?Yes19810.1¢25¢$49+$30+$21
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?No6877.4¢62.5¢$43−$10−$43
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes12036.3¢34.5¢$41−$2.20$0
Will the Democrats win the Nebraska governor race in 2026?No4184¢90.5¢$37+$2.66$0
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No3881.2¢90.5¢$34+$3.55−$613
Will the Democrats win the Oregon Senate race in 2026?Yes3589¢98.1¢$34+$3.17$0
Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?Yes11217.1¢20.5¢$23+$3.78+$150
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No984¢97.9¢$8.96+$1.27$0
Will Chris Van Hollen be the next Senate Majority Leader?Yes2001.2¢4.5¢$8.90+$6.49$0
2026 Balance of Power: OtherYes3,00014.1¢0.3¢$7.50−$416−$2,479
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseNo884¢90.5¢$6.88+$0.50−$1,874
Will Brian Schatz be the next Senate Majority Leader?Yes778.4¢8.9¢$6.84+$0.31+$7.59
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026?No590¢95.4¢$4.77+$0.27$0
Will Republicans hold 50–52 Senate seats and 193–207 House seats after the 2026 midterms?Yes508¢8.1¢$4.03+$0.04$0
Will Republicans hold 47–49 Senate seats and 193–207 House seats after the 2026 midterms?Yes1523.5¢24.7¢$3.70+$0.18$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY NoWill the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?30.3¢10$3.0357%40
BUY YesWill Republicans hold 47–49 Senate seats and 193–207 House seats after the 2026 midterms?23.9¢5$1.1957%40
BUY YesWill Republicans hold 47–49 Senate seats and 193–207 House seats after the 2026 midterms?24.9¢5$1.2557%40
BUY NoWill the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?85¢40$3457%40
BUY NoWill Republicans hold ≤46 Senate seats and ≤192 House seats after the 2026 midterms?83.2¢40$3357%40
BUY Yes2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House2.1¢8$0.1657%40
BUY NoWill Republicans hold ≤46 Senate seats and ≤192 House seats after the 2026 midterms?76¢40$3057%40
SELL NoUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?97.5¢50$4957%40
SELL YesUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026?0.9¢50$0.4557%40
BUY NoWill Republicans hold ≤46 Senate seats and ≤192 House seats after the 2026 midterms?83.2¢59$4957%40
BUY NoWill the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?81¢23$1857%40
BUY NoWill the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?81¢5$4.2657%40
BUY NoUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?93¢50$4757%40
BUY YesUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026?3¢19$0.5757%40
SELL UnderNorway vs. England: O/U 3.582.3¢50$4157%40
SELL OverNorway vs. England: O/U 2.567.5¢100$6857%40
BUY NoWill Republicans hold ≤46 Senate seats and ≤192 House seats after the 2026 midterms?92¢10$9.2057%40
SELL Yes2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House1.6¢100$1.6057%40
SELL Yes2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House1.8¢100$1.8057%40
BUY Yes2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House2.2¢12$0.2657%40