sharpside
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Traders/Rank #4,749

Compound-57

0xfd4…805a
SharpWR 70+WR 60+Politics
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$3,367vol $260k
PnL 30d+$2,076gains $2,670 · losses $1,252
PnL 7d+$16win rate 7d 50.0%
Win rate71.3%adj 70.5% · 30d 68.6%
Open value$2,682cash n/a
Positions79 / 802open / all-time
Max drawdown−23.7%of equity peak
Account age9molast trade 3h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$3,335below peak $0Oct 14

SharpScore inputs

73/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale50
Adjusted win rateraw 71.3% · shrunk toward 50%76
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable97
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d100
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity76

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 55

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by October 15, 2026?No30196.7¢98¢$295+$3.84$0
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu by October 31, 2026?No22684.3¢97.7¢$221+$30$0
Will Trump meet with Dario Amodei by October 31, 2026?No24278.8¢89.5¢$217+$26$0
Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?No18490.4¢93.7¢$172+$5.98$0
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?Yes24185.8¢67¢$161−$45$0
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 15?No13787.6¢92¢$126+$5.98−$6.02
Will Trump meet with Sam Altman by October 31, 2026?No14582.9¢75.5¢$109−$11$0
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?No9193.8¢98.8¢$89+$4.50$0
Will Trump meet with Mark Carney by October 31, 2026?No9286.7¢87¢$80+$0.27$0
Will there be 4 or more North Korea tests in October 2026?No9078.5¢77¢$70−$1.38$0
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy by October 31, 2026?No7088.6¢95¢$66+$4.47$0
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by October 31?No7184.7¢88.5¢$63+$2.68$0
Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?Yes5991¢90.5¢$54−$0.30$0
Israel x Syria diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?No6085.4¢89¢$53+$2.14$0
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by October 15, 2026?No5885.8¢88¢$51+$1.28$0
Will Israel election happen as scheduled?Yes5493.3¢92.4¢$50−$0.46$0
Will Rafael Grossi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?No4971.2¢85¢$42+$6.78$0
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?No4763.6¢87.5¢$41+$11$0
Will Trump meet with Javier Milei by October 31, 2026?No4589.6¢88.5¢$39−$0.51$0
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?Yes4676.4¢77¢$35+$0.26$0
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by October 31, 2026?No3489¢97.8¢$33+$2.97$0
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?No3491¢93.5¢$32+$0.85+$0.14
FlyDubai co-pilot transferred to Israel by Oct. 31?No3296.9¢97.3¢$31+$0.12$0
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?Yes3586¢88.5¢$31+$0.87$0
Will Houthis target Pakistan by October 31, 2026?No3196¢97.5¢$30+$0.45$0
Syrian troops enter Yemen by October 31, 2026?No3196.2¢96.1¢$30−$0.06$0
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 15?No3195.5¢95¢$30−$0.16$0
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman by October 31, 2026?No3392¢91¢$30−$0.33$0
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?Yes3682.3¢80.5¢$29−$0.66−$0.09
Will Jordan Bardella be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?No3195.8¢93.3¢$29−$0.80$0
Another Iranian Ambassador expelled by October 31, 2026?No3489¢86¢$29−$1.00$0
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?Yes2696¢98.3¢$26+$0.59$0
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the next Lima mayoral elections?Yes2796.1¢82.4¢$22−$3.70$0
Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31?No2293¢97.6¢$21+$0.99+$6.43
Will Yemeni forces enter Sanaa by October 31?No2194¢97.8¢$21+$0.80$0
Will any country join the Mecca Agreement by October 31, 2026?No2195¢97.9¢$21+$0.59$0
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026?No2484.9¢84¢$20−$0.22$0
Trump meets with Putin by November 30?Yes2579¢77¢$19−$0.51$0
Saxony-Anhalt snap election called in 2026?No2485¢81¢$19−$0.94$0
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?Yes8228.4¢22.5¢$18−$4.79−$0.61
Will Donald Trump visit South Korea in 2026?Yes15010¢10¢$15−$0.05$0
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by October 31?No2483.8¢60¢$14−$5.68$0
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Yes1786¢80.5¢$14−$0.96$0
Will Trump speak to Maria Corina Machado by October 31?No1392¢97.2¢$13+$0.67$0
Saudi troops enter Marib Governorate by October 31, 2026?No1190¢98.6¢$11+$0.95$0
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?No1187¢87.5¢$10+$0.06$0
Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?Yes1567¢62.5¢$9.33−$0.67$0
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Yes2269.2¢40.6¢$8.80−$6.20$0
North Korea x South Korea diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?No1189¢61¢$6.85−$3.15$0
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes1,6670.9¢0.4¢$5.83−$9.17$0
Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by December 31?Yes3315¢14.5¢$4.83−$0.17$0
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?Yes945.3¢4.3¢$4.04−$0.96$0
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Yes767¢45.5¢$3.40−$1.60$0
Will United Serbia win the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election by 10% or more?Yes1729.9¢18.5¢$3.10−$1.90$0
Syrian troops enter Yemen by December 31, 2026?Yes2639¢9¢$2.31−$7.69$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY NoMilitary action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 15?93¢22$2071%73Sharp
BUY NoMilitary action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 15?88¢28$2571%73Sharp
BUY YesWill the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?91¢12$1171%73Sharp
BUY NoWill Trump meet with Sam Altman by October 31, 2026?85¢94$8071%73Sharp
BUY NoWill Trump meet with Dario Amodei by October 31, 2026?81.7¢122$10071%73Sharp
SELL YesCopper cable hit with Sec. 232 tariffs by December 31, 2027?11¢21$2.3171%73Sharp
BUY YesWill Trump and Putin meet next in China?78¢38$3071%73Sharp
BUY NoAnother Iranian Ambassador expelled by October 31, 2026?87¢11$1071%73Sharp
BUY NoWill Trump meet with Javier Milei by October 31, 2026?90¢11$1071%73Sharp
BUY NoWill Trump meet with Mark Carney by October 31, 2026?88¢34$3071%73Sharp
BUY NoWill Rafael Grossi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?77¢19$1571%73Sharp
BUY NoWill the Houthis successfully target shipping by October 15, 2026?96¢31$3071%73Sharp
BUY NoUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?87¢11$1071%73Sharp
BUY NoIsrael x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by October 15, 2026?99¢101$10071%73Sharp
BUY NoMilitary action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 15?88¢17$1571%73Sharp
BUY YesWill Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by December 31?15¢33$5.0071%73Sharp
BUY NoMilitary action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 15?87.5¢11$1071%73Sharp
BUY YesIsrael x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?89¢34$3071%73Sharp
BUY YesWill Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?5.3¢94$5.0071%73Sharp
BUY NoMilitary action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 15?86¢23$2071%73Sharp