sharpside
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Traders/Rank #3,841

AJK2

0x014…3794
SharpWR 80+WR 70+WR 60+1y+Politics
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$517vol $122k
PnL 30d−$252gains $249 · losses $168
PnL 7d−$221win rate 7d 100.0%
Win rate82.2%adj 79.8% · 30d 82.4%
Open value$7,457cash n/a
Positions58 / 305open / all-time
Max drawdown−43.6%of equity peak
Account age1.2ylast trade 18h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$662below peak −$395Oct 10

SharpScore inputs

71/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale39
Adjusted win rateraw 82.2% · shrunk toward 50%100
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable83
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d97
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity56

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 58

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?No2,96098.4¢98.8¢$2,923+$9.61+$6.54
Will Trump create a $5,000 dividend by March 31, 2027?No63394.8¢94.3¢$597−$2.90$0
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes51481.7¢90.5¢$465+$45$0
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No44478.8¢95.5¢$424+$74$0
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?No41796¢98.8¢$411+$11$0
Will the Republicans win the Idaho Senate race in 2026?Yes33390¢94.1¢$314+$14$0
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Yes27273.4¢96.1¢$262+$62$0
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?No22589¢97.8¢$220+$20+$14
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No20995.8¢97.9¢$204+$4.38$0
Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?Yes24781¢80.5¢$199−$1.23$0
Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?Yes24083.2¢76.8¢$184−$16$0
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?No15396.2¢97.7¢$149+$2.22$0
Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?Yes11686¢96.4¢$112+$12$0
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No13537¢82.5¢$111+$61$0
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes16162¢62.5¢$101+$0.81$0
Will Democrats sweep the Minnesota Senate and Governor elections?Yes11091¢89.5¢$98−$1.65$0
Will the Democratic Party win the OH-07 House seat?Yes12083¢80.5¢$97−$3.01$0
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes2,3644¢3.3¢$78−$17$0
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Yes12157.9¢51.4¢$62−$7.92$0
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes2,2732.2¢2.7¢$60+$10$0
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseNo6593¢91.5¢$59−$0.97$0
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes23629.7¢15.5¢$37−$33$0
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes2,0001.5¢1.8¢$35+$5.00$0
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Yes18027.8¢17.5¢$32−$18$0
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?No3099.8¢100¢$30+$0.04$0
Will the Democratic Party win the IA-01 House seat?Yes3486¢86¢$29$0$0
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes1,1012.7¢2.4¢$26−$4.14$0
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes3373¢73.5¢$24+$0.16$0
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?Yes870¢22.5¢$20+$20$0
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes3,0001¢0.7¢$20−$11$0
Kash Patel out by December 31?Yes6577¢22.5¢$15−$35$0
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes3702.7¢3.2¢$12+$1.67$0
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes10918.4¢8.6¢$9.40−$11$0
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes7864¢11.5¢$8.98−$41$0
Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Yes2040¢41¢$8.20+$0.20$0
Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026?Yes14314¢4.8¢$6.79−$13$0
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Yes2274.4¢2.3¢$5.11−$4.89$0
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes2322.2¢1.3¢$2.90−$2.10$0
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes1,0142¢0.3¢$2.53−$17$0
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?Yes2818¢6.5¢$1.81−$3.19$0
Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes2223¢5.5¢$1.20−$3.80$0
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes6670.3¢0.2¢$1.00−$1.00$0
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes5000.4¢0¢$0−$2.00−$0.08
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in July?Yes2860.7¢0¢$0−$2.00−$0.14
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?No28393.1¢0¢$0−$264−$36
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Yes21347¢0¢$0−$100−$2.65
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?Yes20174.6¢0¢$0−$150−$1.52
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?Yes16712¢0¢$0−$20$0
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Yes15519.3¢0¢$0−$30$0
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?Yes11118¢0¢$0−$20$0
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 17, 2026?Yes1084.6¢0¢$0−$5.00$0
Will fewer than 220 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 20-July 26?No9375¢0¢$0−$70$0
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in July?Yes832.4¢0¢$0−$2.00−$0.14
Will Count Binface win 30–40% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?Yes816.2¢0¢$0−$5.00−$0.19
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?Yes7341.3¢0¢$0−$30$0
Will Count Binface win at least 40% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?Yes717¢0¢$0−$5.00−$0.19
Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Yes5917¢0¢$0−$10.00−$0.33
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?No5847.8¢0¢$0−$28−$1.54

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY NoWill Jesus Christ return before 2027?98.7¢1,621$1,60082%71Sharp
BUY NoWill Hussam Abu Safiya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?95.2¢105$10082%71Sharp
BUY NoWill the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?94.6¢106$10082%71Sharp
BUY NoWill Save the Children win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?92.4¢108$10082%71Sharp
BUY NoWill Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?84.7¢118$10082%71Sharp
BUY NoWill Mykola Kuleba win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?92¢109$10082%71Sharp
BUY NoWill any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?96.9¢516$50082%71Sharp
SELL NoWill Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?99.8¢415$41582%71Sharp
BUY YesWill the Democratic Party win the OH-07 House seat?83¢120$10082%71Sharp
SELL NoWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?70.3¢146$10382%71Sharp
BUY NoUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?96.2¢153$14782%71Sharp
BUY YesPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?27.8¢180$5082%71Sharp
SELL NoWill Jesus Christ return before 2027?98.3¢200$19782%71Sharp
BUY NoStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?96¢417$40082%71Sharp
SELL NoWill Jesus Christ return before 2027?98.2¢409$40282%71Sharp
BUY YesWill the Democratic Party win the IA-01 House seat?86¢34$2982%71Sharp
BUY YesWill Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?57.9¢86$5082%71Sharp
SELL NoWill Jesus Christ return before 2027?98.2¢81$8082%71Sharp
BUY YesWill Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?57.9¢35$2082%71Sharp
BUY YesWill the Republicans win the Idaho Senate race in 2026?90¢222$20082%71Sharp