sharpside
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Traders/Unranked

daniel122134

0x09f…76ee
1y+PoliticsSportOther
Polymarket
PnL all-time−$8,645vol $5.55M
PnL 30d−$2,255gains $2,448 · losses $3,049
PnL 7d−$973win rate 7d 46.9%
Win rate46.9%adj 47.0% · 30d 46.9%
Open value$4,406cash n/a
Positions457 / 40,267open / all-time
Max drawdown−70.4%of equity peak
Account age1.2ylast trade 8m ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$3,802below peak −$9,029Oct 12

SharpScore inputs

35/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 46.9% · shrunk toward 50%18
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d100
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity30

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 100

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania?No70199.8¢98.3¢$689−$10$0
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Yes71453.8¢47.5¢$339−$45−$0.97
Will the next governing coalition of Romania include USR + UDMR + AUR?No25099.8¢99¢$247−$2.12$0
Will Umaro Sissoco Embaló win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?Yes87393¢18.8¢$164−$648−$0.55
Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?Yes8794.1¢16¢$140+$104+$0.75
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R HouseNo13599.4¢99.1¢$134−$0.42−$1.20
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No33556.6¢37.5¢$126−$64+$326
Will the next governing coalition of Romania include USR?No10799.8¢98.9¢$106−$0.96$0
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseYes11324.8¢61.5¢$69+$41+$3.03
Will the next governing coalition of Romania include UDMR + AUR?No6499.8¢97.9¢$63−$1.25$0
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseYes21624.7¢28.5¢$61+$8.30$0
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?No6378.2¢98.2¢$61+$12+$13
Will the Democratic Party win the GA-11 House seat?No4984¢98.4¢$49+$7.12$0
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?No6474.1¢61.5¢$39−$8.02$0
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MT-02 House election by 40% or more?No4091¢91.6¢$37+$0.26$0
Will the Republican Party win the NY-08 House seat?No3691.6¢98.6¢$36+$2.52$0
Will Sean Strickland be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026?Yes450¢79¢$36+$36$0
Will the Republican Party win the PA-01 House seat?Yes5065¢62.5¢$31−$1.25−$7.50
Will the Republican Party win the NY-18 House seat?No3190.6¢94.9¢$29+$1.32$0
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-17 House election by 5%-10%?No4079¢69.9¢$28−$3.64$0
Will Drake be featured on GTA VI: The Album?No4074¢68.5¢$27−$2.20−$8.80
Will UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%?No4078¢65¢$26−$5.20$0
Will Hendrik Wüst be the next Chancellor of Germany?Yes19022¢13.5¢$26−$16$0
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-05 House seat?No2882¢92.7¢$26+$2.94$0
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?No2387¢99.5¢$23+$2.83+$12
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Tennessee be between 2,000,000 and 2,200,000?No4066¢55.5¢$22−$4.20$0
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No2578.7¢82.5¢$21+$0.97$0
Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 0.1% and 0.5%?No2594.7¢83.7¢$21−$2.72−$0.36
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?No2949.9¢69.5¢$20+$5.77+$59
Will the Republican Party win the KS-03 House seat?No1987¢95.5¢$18+$1.61+$0.34
Will the Republicans win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?No1883.8¢96.3¢$17+$2.22+$8.69
Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?No1784.6¢96.2¢$16+$1.96+$0.03
Will a team from LEC (Europe / EMEA) win LoL Worlds 2026?No1794.5¢94.5¢$16−$0.02−$1.36
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?No1585.5¢99.3¢$15+$2.11+$15
Will October be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026?No1586.7¢97.4¢$15+$1.66$0
Will November be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026?No1583.7¢95.5¢$15+$1.83$0
Will Baciro Djá win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?Yes9270.9¢1.6¢$14+$5.69+$0.01
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No1496.7¢100¢$14+$0.46−$0.06
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No1494.1¢99.7¢$14+$0.79+$0.31
Will December be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026?No1584.3¢92¢$14+$1.18$0
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No1474.2¢98.3¢$14+$3.44+$1.41
Will New York Giants win the 2026 NFC East?No1785¢82¢$14−$0.51$0
Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?No1399.6¢100¢$13+$0.05$0
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $100B and $200B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?No1399.8¢100¢$13+$0.03$0
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $200B and $300B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?No1399.8¢100¢$13+$0.02$0
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $300B and $400B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?No1399.5¢99.9¢$13+$0.05$0
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $400B and $600B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?No1398.3¢99¢$13+$0.09$0
Will the Democratic Party win the CO-04 House seat?No1968.6¢70.5¢$13+$0.36−$19
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey before 2027?No1386.5¢99.5¢$13+$1.65+$1.09
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-14 House seat?No1480¢91.5¢$13+$1.58$0
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?No2153.8¢60.5¢$13+$1.38+$67
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?No1397.5¢99.9¢$12+$0.29−$3.92
Will the Democratic Party win the IA-02 House seat?No2849.5¢42.5¢$12−$1.95+$25
Will Philadelphia Eagles win the 2026 NFC East?No1759¢68.5¢$12+$1.63$0
Will the Republican Party win the FL-27 House seat?No3129¢37.5¢$12+$2.65+$7.37
Will the Democratic Party win the MS-01 House seat?No1293.7¢96¢$12+$0.27$0
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?No1379.3¢85.9¢$11+$0.88−$0.28
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-27 House seat?No1769¢63.5¢$11−$0.95+$2.40
Will Dallas Cowboys win the 2026 NFC East?No1768¢61.5¢$11−$1.11$0
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-16 House seat?No1375¢83.5¢$10+$1.06$0
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-20 House election by 0%-10%?No1076¢98.5¢$9.85+$2.25$0
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-20 House election by 15%-20%?No1097¢95.1¢$9.51−$0.20$0
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseYes10024.7¢9.5¢$9.47−$15+$3.67
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-20 House election by 40% or more?No1094¢94.4¢$9.44+$0.04$0
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.5% at the end of 2026?No999.4¢99.9¢$9.34+$0.05$0
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the end of 2026?No982.3¢99.8¢$9.33+$1.63$0
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.25% at the end of 2026?No998¢99.8¢$9.33+$0.17$0
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.75% at the end of 2026?No988.4¢99.8¢$9.33+$1.06$0
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.0% at the end of 2026?No998.9¢99.8¢$9.33+$0.08$0
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.5% at the end of 2026?No995.8¢99.8¢$9.33+$0.37$0
Will Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?Yes4974¢19¢$9.33−$27+$76
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.75% at the end of 2026?No999.6¢99.7¢$9.32+$0.01$0
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≤1.0% at the end of 2026?No997.6¢99.7¢$9.32+$0.19$0
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.25% at the end of 2026?No999.3¢99.7¢$9.32+$0.03$0
Will the Republican Party win the NY-01 House seat?No6041.9¢15.5¢$9.30−$16+$0.07
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?No986.1¢99.1¢$9.26+$1.21$0
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026?No979.9¢98.5¢$9.21+$1.74$0
Will the Democratic Party win the MT-02 House seat?No990¢98.9¢$8.90+$0.80$0
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 SD-AL House election by 15%-20%?Yes4022¢21.5¢$8.60−$0.20$0
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?No998.5¢89.8¢$8.40−$0.81$0
Will FLING win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?Yes1683.1¢5¢$8.32+$3.18−$4.02
Will the 10-year Japanese government bond yield on the last reported day of 2026 be between 2.4% and 2.6%?No988¢93.6¢$8.01+$0.47$0
Will the 10-year Japanese government bond yield on the last reported day of 2026 be between 2.8% and 3.0%?No953¢91.8¢$7.85+$3.32$0
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-20 House election by 25%-30%?No1087¢77.5¢$7.75−$0.95$0
Will the Democratic Party win the PA-01 House seat?No1361.2¢61.5¢$7.69+$0.04−$25
Will Brest win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship?No899.8¢100¢$7.69+$0.01$0
Will Toulouse win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship?No899.8¢100¢$7.69+$0.01$0
Will Le Havre win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship?No899.8¢100¢$7.69+$0.01$0
Will Auxerre win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship?No899.8¢100¢$7.69+$0.01$0
Will Angers win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship?No899.8¢100¢$7.69+$0.01$0
Will Troyes win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship?No899.7¢100¢$7.69+$0.02$0
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?No998.5¢81.9¢$7.65−$1.55$0
Will Paris FC win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship?No899.8¢99.4¢$7.64−$0.03$0
Will Marseille win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship?No898.3¢99.4¢$7.64+$0.08$0
Will Lens win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship?No898.7¢99.2¢$7.62+$0.03$0
Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?No975¢80.5¢$7.62+$0.52$0
Will Rennes win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship?No899.8¢98.9¢$7.60−$0.07$0
Will Lyon win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship?No898.8¢97.8¢$7.52−$0.08$0
Will Monaco win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship?No898.6¢96¢$7.38−$0.20$0
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia before 2027?No798.6¢99.7¢$7.25+$0.08−$0.21

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
SELL NoWill the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NY-01 House election by 3%-6%?62.1¢8$4.9747%35
SELL NoWill the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NY-01 House election by 3%-6%?64.1¢20$1347%35
BUY YesWill Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026?36¢40$1447%35
BUY YesWill OpenAI be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of November 2026?65¢40$2647%35
SELL NoWill the Michigan 2026 Senate race be within 5%?15¢7$1.0247%35
SELL NoWill the Michigan 2026 Senate race be within 5%?29¢28$8.1247%35
SELL YesWill Xiaomi be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?20¢40$8.0047%35
SELL NoWill the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 PA-16 House election by 10%-15%?70¢40$2847%35
SELL NoWill Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?47¢12$5.6447%35
BUY YesWill the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Massachusetts gubernatorial election by 20%-25%?24¢40$9.6047%35
BUY YesWill the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 WV-01 House election by 35%-40%?28¢40$1147%35
SELL YesWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?12¢8$0.9947%35
SELL YesWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?86.8¢59$5247%35
BUY YesWill the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 IL-15 House election by 30%-35%?26.5¢40$1147%35
SELL NoWill the Democratic Party win the AK-AL House seat?97.3¢79$7747%35
SELL NoWill Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?78¢17$1347%35
SELL NoWill Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?77.7¢100$7847%35
SELL NoWill the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the December interest rate announcement?53¢27$1447%35
SELL YesWill the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 OH-12 House election by 15%-20%?22.8¢20$4.5647%35
SELL YesWill Space Exploration Technologies’ market capitalization be at least $2.75T at the end of November 2026?14¢40$5.6047%35