sharpside
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Traders/Rank #2,037

DFK

0x0dd…94c3
SharpWhalePnL 10k+WR 80+WR 70+WR 60+1y+Politics
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$44.5kvol $5.34M
PnL 30d+$5,055gains $11.1k · losses $1,183
PnL 7d+$156win rate 7d 80.0%
Win rate83.2%adj 81.9% · 30d 81.1%
Open value$258kcash n/a
Positions96 / 787open / all-time
Max drawdown−27.5%of equity peak
Account age1.8ylast trade 8h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$55.8kbelow peak −$258Oct 10

SharpScore inputs

80/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale66
Adjusted win rateraw 83.2% · shrunk toward 50%100
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable97
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d99
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity73

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 96

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?No34.8k91.8¢94.5¢$32.9k+$954$0
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?No29.9k90.1¢87.2¢$26.1k−$894+$576
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?Yes21.9k93.4¢98.7¢$21.7k+$1,157+$167
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?No18.0k88.5¢97¢$17.4k+$1,513+$355
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?No12.6k86.2¢95.5¢$12.1k+$1,169+$605
Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?No10.8k87.3¢85.8¢$9,281−$166$0
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?No9,68089.1¢94¢$9,099+$478+$345
Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?No8,38086.6¢92.3¢$7,730+$474+$445
Will Jordan Bardella be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?No8,22988.9¢93¢$7,653+$335$0
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested before 2027?No7,50983.2¢95.8¢$7,194+$949+$47
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?No7,52683.7¢90.5¢$6,811+$510+$688
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?Yes5,75789.1¢93.5¢$5,383+$252+$19
Trump removed via 25th Amendment before 2027?No5,43794.9¢97.1¢$5,276+$116+$114
Will Gavin Newsom be arrested before 2027?No4,97694¢97.1¢$4,829+$153+$86
Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Yes5,13588.2¢90.5¢$4,647+$116$0
Will Adam Schiff be arrested before 2027?No4,18588.3¢97¢$4,057+$362+$111
Will Hillary Clinton be arrested before 2027?No4,17493.5¢97.2¢$4,055+$152+$109
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?No4,31987.7¢87.5¢$3,779−$8.38−$67
Macron out by December 31, 2026?No3,76892.2¢96.6¢$3,638+$166+$18
Will Marine Le Pen advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?Yes3,18288¢91¢$2,896+$94$0
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No3,19784.2¢84.5¢$2,701+$9.64−$712
Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?No2,77591.3¢94.8¢$2,631+$96$0
Will James Comey be arrested before 2027?No2,71383.9¢90.6¢$2,458+$181$0
Will Jordan Bardella leave the National Rally by December 31, 2026?No2,57193.1¢94.9¢$2,440+$47$0
US takes Panama Canal before 2027?No2,46789.1¢97.5¢$2,405+$208+$569
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?No2,50094.2¢95.5¢$2,388+$33+$87
Will Jordan Bardella announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?No2,18493.6¢93.9¢$2,051+$6.77$0
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?No2,09182.9¢95¢$1,986+$254+$95
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Yes2,06088.6¢94.4¢$1,945+$118$0
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?No1,93895.1¢97¢$1,880+$38+$59
Phoebe Gates arrested by December 31?No1,73594¢99¢$1,716+$87+$3.00
Will Gabriel Attal advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?No1,81893.1¢94¢$1,708+$15$0
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?Yes1,75994¢95¢$1,671+$18$0
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?No1,71086.2¢97.4¢$1,665+$191$0
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?No1,66090.3¢96¢$1,594+$95+$60
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sentenced to prison?No1,59487.2¢97.2¢$1,548+$158$0
Will Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?No1,61292.4¢95¢$1,531+$41$0
Will François Hollande advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?No1,61993.8¢94.2¢$1,525+$6.06$0
Will Sébastien Lecornu be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?No1,57595.1¢95.8¢$1,508+$11$0
Will Jordan Bardella leave the National Rally by March 31, 2027?No1,50487.6¢89.5¢$1,347+$28+$5.39
Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027?No1,25789.1¢95¢$1,194+$74+$21
JD Vance Republican nomination odds leader on October 31?Yes1,14394¢97.5¢$1,114+$40$0
Will Sébastien Lecornu announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?No1,15094.3¢96.3¢$1,107+$23$0
Will Letitia James be arrested before 2027?No1,04592.2¢95.7¢$999+$36$0
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?No1,00089¢96.8¢$968+$78$0
Will Sébastien Lecornu advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?No93794.8¢96.1¢$900+$11$0
French election called by December 31, 2026?No95190.8¢93.4¢$889+$24$0
Trump out as President before 2027?No92190.9¢95.8¢$882+$45+$2,734
NATO article 5 before 2027?No91994.2¢94.4¢$867+$1.50$0
Will Manuel Bompard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?No80293.3¢95.1¢$763+$15$0
Will Michel-Edouard Leclerc be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?No78395¢96.5¢$756+$12$0
Will John Brennan be arrested before 2027?No93876.8¢79.5¢$745+$25$0
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?No75894¢97.9¢$742+$29+$381
Will Olivier Faure advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?No69594.4¢94.8¢$659+$2.88$0
Will María Corina Machado be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?No60796¢96.5¢$586+$2.92+$8.47
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?No75074.2¢77.5¢$581+$24+$309
Will Ségolène Royal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?No54095.9¢96.6¢$521+$3.30$0
Will James Clapper be arrested before 2027?No54383¢94.5¢$513+$63$0
Will Canada become a European Union Association Member by December 31, 2026?No50692.1¢96.5¢$488+$22$0
Plague pandemic in 2026?No50095.8¢97.3¢$486+$7.25$0
Will Carole Delga advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?No45193.6¢95.8¢$432+$9.88$0
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2028?Yes54073.9¢76.5¢$413+$14$0
Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?No44487.6¢92¢$408+$19−$7.66
Nothing Ever Happens: OctoberNothing40093.3¢93¢$372−$1.00$0
Will Canada become a European Union Association Member by June 30, 2027?No48470.4¢74.5¢$360+$20$0
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?No31196.2¢96.9¢$301+$1.89+$89
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028?No35977¢77.5¢$278+$1.79$0
Will Raphaël Glucksmann advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?No27991.9¢93.6¢$261+$4.81+$3.98
Plague case in US by December 31?No28789¢89.5¢$257+$1.43$0
Will Clémentine Autain advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?No25691.6¢95.3¢$244+$9.58$0
Trump renames Lake Okeechobee to "Trump Lake" in 2026?No25293¢96.4¢$243+$8.57$0
Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?No25780.1¢94¢$242+$36$0
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?No24395.5¢97¢$236+$3.56+$1,173
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2027?No26085.8¢87.5¢$228+$4.50$0
Will François Bayrou advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?No21294.2¢96.8¢$205+$5.39$0
Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?No33666¢60.5¢$204−$18−$53
Will Élisabeth Borne advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?No21294.3¢95.5¢$202+$2.41$0
Will Lindsey Graham be the #1 searched passing on Google in the US this year?No19380.4¢98.9¢$191+$36+$55
Will Hunter Biden announce a Presidential run before 2028?No25584.2¢74.5¢$190−$25$0
Will Édouard Philippe be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Yes19881.3¢90.5¢$179+$18+$20
Canada cuts off or throttles electricity to the US by December 31?No17885¢92.5¢$165+$13+$28
Will the 2026 United Left primary for the 2027 French presidential election be canceled?Yes17091.2¢92.7¢$158+$2.46$0
Will Juan Branco advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?No16392.1¢95.5¢$156+$5.54$0
Will Susan Rice be arrested before 2027?No16592.1¢92.5¢$153+$0.73+$0.06
Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Yes20061¢59¢$118−$4.00$0
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30, 2027?No12884¢85.5¢$109+$1.92$0
D4vd released from custody in 2026?No10792.4¢93¢$100+$0.63$0
Will Loretta Lynch be arrested before 2027?No10186.8¢97.6¢$98+$11+$45
Will Dominique de Villepin advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?No8094.6¢94.5¢$76−$0.10$0
Will Trump rename an ocean in 2026?No7095¢97.1¢$68+$1.47+$1.07
Will Marco Rubio be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?No3897.2¢98.4¢$37+$0.44$0
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?No2590.2¢97.3¢$24+$1.76+$106
Diddy released from custody in 2026?No2365¢90.5¢$21+$5.78$0
OpenAI resumes training by October 31, 2026?Yes2385.3¢42.5¢$9.56−$9.62−$19
Will Richard Branson be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No3,14165.2¢0¢$0−$2,050$0
Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in 2025?No30070¢0¢$0−$210+$22

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY NoWill Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2027?85¢60$5183%80Sharp
BUY NoWill Olivier Faure advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?94.7¢101$9683%80Sharp
SELL NoWill Jordan Bardella leave the National Rally by March 31, 2027?93¢116$10883%80Sharp
SELL NoWill François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?97.3¢1,033$1,00583%80Sharp
BUY YesJD Vance Republican nomination odds leader on October 31?97.9¢98$9683%80Sharp
SELL NoWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?97.6¢1,340$1,30883%80Sharp
BUY NoWill Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?88¢3,000$2,64083%80Sharp
BUY NoWill Jordan Bardella leave the National Rally by December 31, 2026?95.4¢416$39783%80Sharp
BUY NoWill Russia invade another country in 2026?94¢87$8283%80Sharp
BUY NoWill Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?92.4¢417$38683%80Sharp
BUY NoWill Jordan Bardella leave the National Rally by December 31, 2026?95.4¢503$48083%80Sharp
SELL NoWill Mark Carney win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?99.7¢351$35083%80Sharp
BUY NoWill Jordan Bardella leave the National Rally by December 31, 2026?95.2¢200$19083%80Sharp
BUY NoVon der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?95.7¢240$23083%80Sharp
BUY NoWill Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?94.9¢398$37883%80Sharp
BUY NoWill Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?94.2¢634$59783%80Sharp
SELL NoWill Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?99.7¢3,983$3,97183%80Sharp
BUY NoWill the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?94¢20$1983%80Sharp
BUY NoWill Adam Schiff be arrested before 2027?96.8¢50$4883%80Sharp
BUY NoWill Adam Schiff be arrested before 2027?96.9¢500$48483%80Sharp