sharpside
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Traders/Rank #189

classified

0x12d…f2a8
WhalePnL 100k+PnL 50k+PnL 10k+1y+Politics
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$963kvol $96.0M
PnL 30d−$103kgains $1.02M · losses $809k
PnL 7d+$19.1kwin rate 7d 39.7%
Win rate57.5%adj 57.2% · 30d 43.3%
Open value$253kcash n/a
Positions50 / 1,300open / all-time
Max drawdown−37.9%of equity peak
Account age1.5ylast trade 6h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$1.18Mbelow peak −$704kOct 9

SharpScore inputs

67/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale85
Adjusted win rateraw 57.5% · shrunk toward 50%43
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d99
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity62

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 50

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yes85.1k66.6¢87.3¢$74.3k+$17.6k+$22.2k
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?No61.1k88.4¢90¢$55.0k+$976−$821
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?No20.5k99.3¢99.6¢$20.4k+$72+$1,027
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?No16.6k99.8¢99.9¢$16.5k+$8.29−$10.3k
Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?No11.4k98.8¢99.1¢$11.3k+$25$0
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Yes44.6k19.1¢20.5¢$9,146+$640+$2,315
Iran leadership change by December 31?Yes71.3k23.5¢11.5¢$8,200−$8,546−$24.2k
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Yes17.5k38.1¢41.5¢$7,277+$600+$523
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?No7,00099.6¢99.7¢$6,976+$3.50−$24.2k
Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?No5,00095.7¢98.5¢$4,925+$140$0
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Yes6,00076.7¢77¢$4,620+$20+$176
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?No5,35284.3¢84.5¢$4,523+$11+$2,212
Plague pandemic in 2026?No4,16494.5¢97.2¢$4,045+$110+$310
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9?Yes3,47196.3¢99.1¢$3,440+$97$0
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Yes5,10063.8¢62.5¢$3,188−$64+$68
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?No6,09242.8¢42.5¢$2,589−$20+$15
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026?No2,51394.5¢95.6¢$2,401+$26$0
Trump out as President before 2027?No2,00095.9¢95.5¢$1,909−$9.00$0
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?No3,31340¢44¢$1,458+$134+$37
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?Yes2,00071¢70.5¢$1,410−$10$0
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Yes2,53447.3¢48.7¢$1,234+$34+$52
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 9?Yes1,18694.6¢95.9¢$1,137+$14$0
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?No1,00094¢94.5¢$945+$5.00−$671
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?No76196.9¢97.5¢$742+$4.19$0
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?No59998.1¢98.5¢$590+$2.40$0
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?No58496.8¢99.4¢$580+$15$0
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Yes10.2k5¢5.5¢$561+$51+$3,725
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Yes1,41735.2¢34.5¢$489−$9.76+$2,815
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?No48076¢96.9¢$465+$100+$47
Iran leadership change by November 30?No48493.1¢93.5¢$452+$1.88+$42
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?No1,06058.1¢42.2¢$447−$169+$312
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes3,19914¢13.5¢$432−$16+$1,296
Will Hassan Rouhani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?No14599.2¢99.4¢$144+$0.29$0
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026No83416¢17¢$142+$8.68+$28
Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026?No13098.2¢99.7¢$130+$1.96$0
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?No1,01013.5¢11.5¢$116−$20+$40
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?No74314.2¢14.4¢$107+$1.11+$108k
Nothing Ever Happens: OctoberSomething1,0277¢6¢$62−$9.99$0
Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?Yes7327¢7.5¢$55+$3.66$0
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?No66910¢7.5¢$50−$17+$3,689
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Yes7,00020¢0.5¢$32−$1,369−$15.2k
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2027?No8628¢31¢$27+$2.59$0
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?No7014.5¢15.5¢$11+$0.72+$59.9k
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?No1081¢96.6¢$9.66+$1.56$0
Will Amanda Lind be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Yes19.3k2.8¢0.1¢$9.63−$525$0
Will Daniel Helldén be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Yes19.3k2.8¢0.1¢$9.63−$525$0
Will Nooshi Dadgostar be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Yes19.3k2.8¢0.1¢$9.63−$525$0
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?Yes2,17420¢0.4¢$7.61−$427−$3,774
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?No315¢57.5¢$1.66+$1.22$0
Iran leadership change by October 31?Yes411.7¢1.8¢$0.73+$0.04+$2,332

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
SELL YesUS announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?48.7¢845$41258%67
SELL YesUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?21¢3,966$83358%67
BUY YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?77¢5$3.8558%67
BUY NoWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?99.8¢115$11558%67
BUY NoIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?42¢418$17558%67
BUY YesIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?62¢325$20158%67
BUY YesUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?21¢3,856$81058%67
BUY YesUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?20¢188$3858%67
SELL NoIran leadership change by November 30?94¢5,721$5,37758%67
SELL YesUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?20¢1,697$33958%67
SELL YesUS announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?48¢2,151$1,03258%67
BUY YesIran leadership change by December 31?11¢2,966$32658%67
BUY YesUS x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 9?92.8¢738$68558%67
BUY NoUS x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?14¢500$7058%67
BUY NoUS x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?13¢500$6558%67
BUY NoUS x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?42¢2,474$1,03858%67
SELL YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?35¢959$33658%67
SELL YesIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?95¢1,717$1,63258%67
SELL YesIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?64.6¢581$37658%67
BUY YesWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?14¢8,131$1,13858%67