sharpside
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Traders/Unranked

littlebird

0x202…971a
1y+PoliticsOtherCulture
Polymarket
PnL all-time−$41.6kvol $740k
PnL 30d−$127gains $0 · losses $0
PnL 7d+$150win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate55.0%adj 54.4% · 30d 0.0%
Open value$25.3kcash n/a
Positions123 / 272open / all-time
Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak
Account age1.9ylast trade 4mo ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL−$38.8kbelow peak −$43.7kOct 12

SharpScore inputs

20/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 55.0% · shrunk toward 50%36
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable81
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d0
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 100

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?No2,56059.5¢86.5¢$2,215+$692$0
Will the Republican Party win the GA-02 House seat?No2,19789.4¢94.6¢$2,077+$112$0
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No2,66356.5¢69.5¢$1,851+$346+$0.51
Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026?No1,65388¢97.7¢$1,615+$160$0
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?No1,37871.4¢94¢$1,295+$312$0
Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?No1,67965.8¢72.5¢$1,217+$113$0
Discord IPO before 2027?No1,05935.1¢93.1¢$986+$614$0
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes6,42723.3¢14.8¢$948−$550−$4.26
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?Yes1,63751.4¢55.5¢$908+$67$0
Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2026?No92882.2¢93.5¢$868+$105−$2.17
OpenAI IPO before 2027?No89728.5¢96.7¢$867+$611$0
Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?Yes82481.3¢96¢$791+$120$0
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?No83285.2¢85.5¢$711+$2.28$0
Will the Republican Party win the TN-04 House seat?Yes70090¢97.2¢$680+$50+$2.56
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?No63189.5¢98.1¢$618+$54$0
Will the Democratic Party win the GA-02 House seat?Yes58189.9¢94.5¢$549+$27$0
Anduril IPO before 2027?No54784.3¢97.6¢$534+$73$0
Will Drake be the top artist for 2026?No47291¢97.2¢$459+$29+$0.07
Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027?No43486¢93.1¢$404+$31$0
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $6,500-$7,000 in December?No40988.2¢88¢$360−$0.89+$0.08
Databricks IPO before 2027?No34982.4¢97.9¢$341+$54$0
Will J.D. Vance announce a presidential run before 2027?No32684¢93.8¢$306+$32$0
Glean IPO before 2027?No29884.4¢99.1¢$295+$44$0
Applied Intuition IPO before 2027?No30578¢96.8¢$295+$57$0
Will Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?Yes38045.4¢73.5¢$279+$107$0
Will the Republican Party win the TX-24 House seat?Yes29171.8¢92¢$268+$59$0
Mistral AI IPO before 2027?No25484.9¢98.1¢$249+$33$0
Will Ron DeSantis announce a presidential run before 2027?No22586¢89.1¢$200+$6.97$0
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026?Yes2,50427.2¢8¢$200−$481+$4.01
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?Anthropic20068¢95.5¢$191+$55$0
Freddie Mac IPO before 2027?No18587.1¢96.5¢$179+$17$0
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?Yes41745¢40.5¢$169−$19$0
Will Donald Trump visit Lebanon in 2026?No16693.5¢98.9¢$164+$8.91$0
Vanta IPO before 2027?No16186.8¢99¢$159+$20$0
Kash Patel out by December 31?Yes73752.1¢20.5¢$151−$233$0
Will the Democratic Party win the GA-04 House seat?Yes14994.1¢98¢$146+$5.71$0
Will Trump deport 400-500k people?Yes24026.6¢51.5¢$124+$60$0
Will the Republican Party win the LA-06 House seat?Yes12578¢92.5¢$116+$18$0
Remote IPO before 2027?No11975.3¢96.5¢$115+$25$0
Will Peter Obi win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?Yes54923¢20¢$110−$17$0
Will Blake Miguez be the Republican nominee for LA-05?No10779.4¢98.5¢$105+$20$0
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in 2026?Yes14673.5¢68.5¢$100−$7.28$0
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at <$6,000 in December?No7283¢94.5¢$68+$8.28$0
Rippling IPO before 2027?No6884¢96.3¢$65+$8.36$0
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?No6337.1¢95¢$59+$36$0
Will Rihanna have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?No6475¢89.6¢$57+$9.36$0
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-27 House seat?Yes15027¢36.5¢$55+$14$0
Will Brian Armstrong appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?No4843.8¢92.8¢$44+$23$0
Will the Republican Party hold 230 or more House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?No4496.4¢98.6¢$43+$0.94$0
Will Fiona Ma win the California Lieutenant Governor Election in 2026?Yes4274¢95.5¢$40+$9.11$0
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?Yes87566¢4.3¢$38−$539$0
Over $400M raised on Coinbase in 2026?No5954.1¢62.7¢$37+$5.13−$0.11
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?Yes17815¢19.5¢$35+$8.01$0
MagicBlock FDV above $60M one day after launch?No465¢76¢$35+$32$0
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-27 House seat?Yes3590.8¢97¢$34+$2.17$0
Will Donald Trump visit Syria in 2026?No3694¢92.5¢$33−$0.53$0
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-28 House seat?Yes5938.7¢5.5¢$33−$19$0
Will Sergio Massa win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?Yes3972.1¢7.5¢$30+$21$0
Will Trump deport 500-600k people?Yes22810¢12.4¢$28+$5.50$0
Over $1B raised on Coinbase in 2026?No2782¢89¢$24+$1.89$0
Over $200M raised on Coinbase in 2026?Yes5637.5¢38.5¢$22+$0.55$0
Hurupay FDV above $50M one day after launch?No2283.9¢97.4¢$21+$2.95−$0.28
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2026?No2381¢89¢$20+$1.84$0
Anthropic IPO before 2027?Yes3063¢67.5¢$20+$1.35$0
Will SBF appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?No2582.6¢74.2¢$19−$2.11$0
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?Yes11762.6¢15.5¢$18−$55$0
Will Tulsi Gabbard announce a presidential run before 2027?No1780¢98¢$16+$3.00$0
Will the Republican Party win the NV-02 House seat?Yes2274¢72¢$16−$0.45$0
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?Yes6037.6¢21.5¢$13−$9.65+$0.70
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon before 2027?No1384¢91¢$12+$0.91$0
MagicBlock FDV above $40M one day after launch?Yes4691¢24.5¢$11−$30$0
Anduril Industries IPO before 2027?Yes4879.9¢2.2¢$11−$38$0
Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2026?No1050¢92¢$9.20+$4.20$0
Will Lee Zeldin leave the Trump administration before 2027?Yes9023.9¢10¢$8.99−$13$0
Over $4B crypto hack value in 2026?No968¢93.1¢$8.37+$2.25$0
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?No827¢95.7¢$7.66+$5.50$0
Will the US federal government take a stake in The Boeing Company?Yes8011¢9¢$7.19−$1.60$0
Will the US federal government take a stake in Palantir Technologies Inc.?No783¢96.2¢$6.80+$0.93$0
Will the US federal government take a stake in OpenAI?Yes5021¢13.5¢$6.76−$3.76$0
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?Yes5006¢1.2¢$5.75−$24$0
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?Yes7524.7¢7.5¢$5.63−$13$0
Will the US federal government take a stake in Lockheed Martin Corporation?Yes3710¢10.5¢$3.92+$0.19$0
Will the Republicans win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?Yes9619¢3.8¢$3.60−$15$0
Will Fiona Ma win the California Lieutenant Governor Election in 2026?No7028¢4.5¢$3.17−$17$0
Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027?Yes1060.4¢27.8¢$2.78−$3.26$0
Over $800M raised on Coinbase in 2026?Yes2714.7¢10¢$2.70−$1.28$0
Kylie Jenner and Timothée Chalamet engaged in 2026?Yes2130.7¢10.5¢$2.21−$4.23$0
Will Trump deport 300-400k people?Yes2029.5¢10.5¢$2.07−$3.74$0
OpenAI IPO before 2027?Yes6138.3¢3.3¢$2.03−$22$0
Will Brian Armstrong appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?Yes2415¢7.2¢$1.69−$1.83$0
Will the US federal government take a stake in Micron Technology, Inc.?Yes1734¢8.5¢$1.45−$4.35$0
Tabi FDV above $3B one day after launch?No182.1¢98¢$1.19+$0.19$0
Hurupay FDV above $20M one day after launch?Yes2511¢4.2¢$1.03−$1.70$0
Over $3.5B crypto hack value in 2026?Yes928¢11.2¢$1.01−$1.52$0
Will Drake be the top artist for 2026?Yes3222.3¢2.8¢$0.88−$6.16−$1,260
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell before 2027?Yes2113¢3.6¢$0.75−$1.99$0
Will the Republican Party win the CA-27 House seat?Yes234.3¢2.5¢$0.58−$0.42$0
Will Bill Walker win the 2026 Alaska governor election?Yes3605.7¢0.1¢$0.36−$20$0
Hurupay FDV above $30M one day after launch?Yes812.8¢3.2¢$0.25−$0.75$0
SHEIN IPO before 2027?No1,20070¢0¢$0−$840−$2.96

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY NoWill FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?61¢100$6155%20
BUY NoWill FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?61¢300$18355%20
BUY NoWill FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?61¢300$18355%20
BUY NoWill FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?61¢100$6155%20
BUY NoWill FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?61¢100$6155%20
BUY NoWill FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?61¢100$6155%20
BUY NoWill FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?61¢35$2155%20
BUY NoWill FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?61¢120$7355%20
BUY NoWill FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?60¢8$5.0255%20
BUY NoWill FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?60¢72$4355%20
BUY NoWill FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?61¢100$6155%20
BUY NoWill FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?61¢6$3.6655%20
BUY NoWill FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?61¢83$5155%20
BUY NoWill FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?59¢29$1755%20
BUY NoWill FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?58¢299$17355%20
BUY NoWill FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?59¢20$1255%20
BUY YesWill Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election?33¢100$3355%20
BUY YesWill Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election?23.5¢5$1.1755%20
BUY YesWill Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election?22.4¢5$1.1255%20
BUY YesWill Shenna Bellows win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election?5.9¢15$0.8755%20