Traders/Rank #1,598

DEGENKHAN

0x21d…ce91@DegenPolyKhan

SharpWhalePnL 100k+PnL 50k+PnL 10k+WR 70+WR 60+1y+PoliticsOtherSportWeather

Polymarket

PnL all-time+$100kvol $24.8M

PnL 30d+$8,902gains $5,175 · losses $2,427

PnL 7d+$3,437win rate 7d 75.8%

Win rate71.2%adj 70.4% · 30d 65.5%

Open value$291kcash n/a

Positions495 / 2,749open / all-time

Max drawdown−5.2%of equity peak

Account age2.1ylast trade 4h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$114kbelow peak $0Oct 8

SharpScore inputs

80/ 100 SharpScore · v1

Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale71

Adjusted win rateraw 71.2% · shrunk toward 50%76

Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100

Recencylast trade; fades over 30d99

Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity95

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

US recession by end of 2026? · Noopen+$3,786 Trump out as President before 2027? · Noopen+$3,595 Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · Noopen+$2,290 Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? · Yesopen+$1,877 Xi Jinping out before 2027? · Noopen+$1,265

Worst markets

Will Micah Parsons leave the Cowboys before Week 1? · Noopen−$1,772 Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? · Yesclosed−$1,262 Another 7.0 or above earthquake by May 30, 2026? · Yesopen−$1,218 Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 31? · Yesopen−$1,095 Another 7.0 or above earthquake by November 30? · Yesopen−$997

Open positions · 100

Market	Outcome		Avg entry	Now			Realized	Ends
US recession by end of 2026?	No	38.3k	83.7¢	93.5¢	$35.8k	+$3,740	+$45	4mo
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	20.1k	94.6¢	97.4¢	$19.6k	+$543	+$722	3mo
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	16.8k	94.9¢	99.5¢	$16.7k	+$762	+$1,528	6mo
Trump out as President before 2027?	No	15.0k	93¢	96¢	$14.4k	+$443	+$3,151	3mo
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	15.2k	91.8¢	90.5¢	$13.7k	−$194	−$498	26d 2h
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?	No	11.4k	95¢	96.6¢	$11.0k	+$187	+$126	3mo
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	7,698	96.2¢	95.6¢	$7,356	−$51	+$5.62	3mo
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	No	7,423	89.3¢	96.6¢	$7,171	+$540	+$220	4mo
New pandemic in 2026?	No	7,082	93.6¢	95.5¢	$6,763	+$135	+$11	3mo
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?	No	6,735	91.4¢	93.5¢	$6,297	+$140	+$14	6mo
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	6,215	97.5¢	97.8¢	$6,075	+$16	+$1,137	3mo
OpenAI IPO before 2027?	No	5,952	97.1¢	97.3¢	$5,788	+$10	+$1.51	3mo
Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027?	No	5,073	92.9¢	98¢	$4,969	+$258	+$198	3mo
Zohran Mamdani out as mayor of NYC before 2027?	No	4,844	94.9¢	96.8¢	$4,689	+$92	+$138	3mo
Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	4,454	92.2¢	96.5¢	$4,296	+$189	+$131	3mo
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31?	No	4,419	89.5¢	96.5¢	$4,262	+$308	+$123	3mo
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?	Yes	4,898	83¢	81.5¢	$3,992	−$75	+$4.66	15mo
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31?	No	3,911	95.8¢	97.8¢	$3,823	+$78	+$39	3mo
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?	No	3,762	86.8¢	93.5¢	$3,518	+$252	+$8.88	5mo
Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	Yes	6,492	25.6¢	53.5¢	$3,473	+$1,809	+$68	3mo
JD Vance out as VP by December 31?	No	3,546	93.6¢	96.5¢	$3,420	+$101	+$89	3mo
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?	No	3,274	95.7¢	97.6¢	$3,194	+$62	+$9.64	3mo
Will Iran legalize gay marriage?	No	3,025	97.4¢	98.2¢	$2,970	+$23	+$3.95	3mo
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	2,752	87.9¢	94.5¢	$2,601	+$180	+$175	3mo
Tom Lee charged by December 31?	No	2,576	94.8¢	97.7¢	$2,517	+$73	+$60	3mo
Will Trump create a $5,000 dividend by March 31, 2027?	No	2,658	94.6¢	94.3¢	$2,507	−$8.97	$0	6mo
RFK Jr. Out by December 31?	No	2,797	70.1¢	88¢	$2,461	+$500	+$7.71	3mo
Luigi Mangione out of custody before 2027?	No	2,338	96¢	98.4¢	$2,299	+$55	+$68	3mo
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?	No	2,293	97.5¢	97.4¢	$2,232	−$3.65	$0	3mo
Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	Yes	10.3k	18.8¢	21¢	$2,166	+$230	−$1.46	3mo
Will American Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31?	No	2,074	92.5¢	98.1¢	$2,034	+$115	+$89	3mo
Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?	No	2,099	81.7¢	94.5¢	$1,984	+$269	−$7.43	3mo
AI data center in space by December 31, 2026?	No	1,881	97.2¢	97.7¢	$1,837	+$7.69	+$3.47	3mo
Will Gavin Newsom be arrested before 2027?	No	1,768	97.1¢	97¢	$1,715	−$1.77	+$60	3mo
Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027?	No	1,759	84.7¢	96.5¢	$1,696	+$207	+$40	3mo
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	Yes	1,802	91.6¢	93.5¢	$1,685	+$33	+$43	3mo
Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?	No	1,769	93.3¢	94.5¢	$1,672	+$22	−$0.47	3mo
Plague pandemic in 2026?	No	1,616	95.5¢	96.1¢	$1,553	+$9.02	+$34	3mo
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	1,894	83¢	82¢	$1,553	−$19	+$48	3mo
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?	No	1,340	94¢	96.8¢	$1,296	+$37	+$48	3mo
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027?	No	1,297	97.1¢	98.3¢	$1,275	+$16	+$22	3mo
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.0% or higher before 2027?	No	1,307	96.9¢	97.3¢	$1,271	+$3.95	−$0.43	3mo
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	Yes	1,506	81.8¢	81.5¢	$1,227	−$4.53	−$2.79	3mo
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 by December 31, 2026?	No	1,223	91.7¢	97.8¢	$1,196	+$74	+$26	3mo
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?	No	1,192	91.9¢	95.5¢	$1,139	+$43	+$10	3mo
Will Elijah Arroyo finish as a top-12 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season?	No	1,144	93.3¢	97.6¢	$1,116	+$49	+$4.18	4mo
Will Alaska Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31?	No	1,106	97.8¢	97.7¢	$1,080	−$1.40	+$26	3mo
Will Barack Obama be arrested before 2027?	No	1,093	95.9¢	98.1¢	$1,072	+$24	+$90	3mo
Will Hillary Clinton be arrested before 2027?	No	1,092	96.7¢	97.2¢	$1,061	+$5.29	+$8.84	3mo
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.75% or lower before 2027?	No	1,059	98.5¢	98.8¢	$1,045	+$2.71	+$18	3mo
US military draft authorized in 2026?	No	1,073	93¢	96.1¢	$1,031	+$33	+$457	3mo
US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?	No	1,113	92.2¢	92.4¢	$1,028	+$1.33	+$10	3mo
Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31?	Yes	939	92.5¢	96.8¢	$909	+$40	+$36	3mo
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.25% or lower before 2027?	No	920	97.5¢	98¢	$901	+$5.03	$0	3mo
Will Elon Musk get full custody of the St. Clair child?	No	913	91.1¢	96¢	$876	+$44	+$33	3mo
Will Loretta Lynch be arrested before 2027?	No	892	98.2¢	97.6¢	$870	−$5.43	$0	3mo
Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?	No	915	88¢	92.1¢	$843	+$37	+$6.84	3mo
Will Allegiant announce bankruptcy by December 31?	No	850	96.3¢	97.3¢	$826	+$8.29	$0	3mo
Will Jeremiyah Love finish as a top-5 RB in the 2026-27 NFL season?	No	868	79.1¢	88.5¢	$768	+$82	$0	4mo
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	808	92.2¢	90.5¢	$731	−$14	+$56	26d 2h
Will Bill Clinton be arrested before 2027?	No	708	96.6¢	98.3¢	$696	+$12	−$0.03	3mo
Will the Democrats win the Illinois governor race in 2026?	Yes	699	95.5¢	97.9¢	$684	+$16	+$1.18	26d 2h
Will Pam Bondi be arrested before 2027?	No	720	96.4¢	95¢	$684	−$10	$0	3mo
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	808	82.7¢	81.5¢	$659	−$10	+$1.23	3mo
Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	3,328	19.1¢	18.5¢	$616	−$21	$0	9mo
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?	No	636	94¢	95.7¢	$608	+$11	+$15	3mo
Will Letitia James be arrested before 2027?	No	611	95.5¢	95.7¢	$585	+$1.44	$0	3mo
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?	Yes	4,700	6.4¢	11.8¢	$555	+$252	+$17	15mo
Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?	No	554	97.6¢	98.2¢	$544	+$2.96	$0	3mo
Tim Walz charged by December 31, 2026?	No	550	91.2¢	97.2¢	$534	+$33	+$104	3mo
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026?	No	538	97.5¢	97¢	$522	−$2.61	−$3.85	3mo
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	606	83.8¢	84.5¢	$512	+$4.23	−$345	3mo
Will Austin Hooper finish as a top-5 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season?	No	520	94.4¢	97.2¢	$506	+$14	+$4.16	4mo
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	3,232	15.1¢	15.1¢	$486	−$2.83	+$142	25mo
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	Yes	1,055	49.4¢	45.5¢	$480	−$41	−$32	3mo
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	5,956	10.3¢	8.1¢	$479	−$136	+$323	25mo
Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026?	Yes	1,028	41¢	46.5¢	$478	+$56	+$6.40	3mo
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	3,138	22.2¢	15.2¢	$475	−$222	+$950	25mo
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	6,464	8.4¢	7.4¢	$475	−$68	+$216	25mo
Will Ray Davis finish as a top-5 RB in the 2026-27 NFL season?	No	487	89.3¢	96¢	$467	+$33	$0	4mo
Will Tommy Tremble finish as a top-12 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season?	No	466	92.8¢	98.7¢	$459	+$28	+$3.63	4mo
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?	No	467	87.4¢	96.3¢	$450	+$42	+$79	3mo
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?	No	463	88.2¢	95.5¢	$442	+$34	+$19	3mo
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December?	No	451	94.2¢	97.4¢	$439	+$14	$0	3mo
Will Saquon Barkley finish as a top-5 RB in the 2026-27 NFL season?	No	467	84.3¢	93.5¢	$436	+$43	$0	4mo
Will a 6.5+ earthquake occur worldwide by October 31?	Yes	478	92.8¢	89¢	$425	−$18	$0	23d 2h
Will Austin Hooper finish as a top-12 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season?	No	430	93.8¢	96.8¢	$416	+$13	$0	4mo
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2027?	No	445	90.6¢	91.5¢	$407	+$4.00	+$7.32	9mo
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	428	84.3¢	94.5¢	$404	+$44	$0	3mo
Will Rico Dowdle finish as a top-5 RB in the 2026-27 NFL season?	No	417	90.3¢	94.5¢	$394	+$17	$0	4mo
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?	No	432	90.9¢	90.5¢	$391	−$1.87	+$2.43	53d 2h
Will JetBlue announce bankruptcy by December 31?	No	416	90¢	93.5¢	$389	+$14	+$13	3mo
Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	Yes	1,250	22.8¢	30¢	$375	+$90	+$8.52	3mo
Will Trump endorse any candidate for President before 2027?	No	387	86.8¢	96.3¢	$373	+$37	+$83	3mo
Will the LA Clippers make the 2027 NBA Playoffs?	No	408	86.9¢	90.5¢	$369	+$15	+$0.60	7mo
Will Jameson Williams finish as a top-5 FLEX in the 2026-27 NFL season?	No	360	95¢	98.2¢	$353	+$11	+$1.43	4mo
Will Adam Schiff be arrested before 2027?	No	364	96.2¢	97¢	$353	+$3.02	+$14	3mo
Will Trump visit any pandas in 2026?	No	384	91.8¢	91.5¢	$351	−$1.26	$0	3mo
Will Blake Corum finish as a top-5 RB in the 2026-27 NFL season?	No	364	94¢	96.6¢	$351	+$9.28	+$0.12	4mo
Will OpenAI rename itself to OpenSI?	No	357	96¢	96.8¢	$346	+$2.80	$0	3mo

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s

Time	Side	Market	Price	Shares	Value	Trader WR	Sharp	Flags
4h ago	SELL No	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	99.5¢	4,000	$3,980	71%	80	Sharp
5h ago	BUY Yes	Will a 6.5+ earthquake occur worldwide by October 31?	91.5¢	368	$337	71%	80	Sharp
5h ago	BUY Yes	Will James Cook III be the highest-scoring RB of the 2026-27 NFL season?	2.2¢	96	$2.15	71%	80	Sharp
5h ago	SELL Yes	Will Saquon Barkley be the highest-scoring RB of the 2026-27 NFL season?	7.3¢	81	$5.93	71%	80	Sharp
5h ago	BUY Yes	Will a 7.0+ earthquake occur worldwide by October 31?	63¢	22	$14	71%	80	Sharp
6h ago	BUY No	Will Carnell Tate have 1,174.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	68¢	80	$54	71%	80	Sharp
6h ago	BUY No	New pandemic before 2028?	86¢	44	$38	71%	80	Sharp
1d ago	BUY No	Will Loretta Lynch be arrested before 2027?	97.2¢	66	$64	71%	80	Sharp
1d ago	BUY No	Will Letitia James be arrested before 2027?	95.6¢	102	$98	71%	80	Sharp
1d ago	BUY No	Will Barack Obama be arrested before 2027?	98.3¢	130	$128	71%	80	Sharp
1d ago	BUY No	Will Carnell Tate have 1,174.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	39¢	6	$2.15	71%	80	Sharp
1d ago	SELL Yes	Will Bijan Robinson be the highest-scoring RB of the 2026-27 NFL season?	34¢	40	$14	71%	80	Sharp
1d ago	BUY Yes	Will Bijan Robinson be the highest-scoring RB of the 2026-27 NFL season?	29¢	0	$0.04	71%	80	Sharp
1d ago	BUY No	Plague pandemic in 2026?	95.4¢	190	$182	71%	80	Sharp
1d ago	BUY No	Will Jeremiyah Love finish as a top-5 RB in the 2026-27 NFL season?	86¢	180	$155	71%	80	Sharp
1d ago	BUY No	Plague pandemic in 2026?	95.3¢	209	$199	71%	80	Sharp
1d ago	BUY Yes	Will Justin Jefferson finish as a top-12 WR in the 2026-27 NFL season?	14.7¢	34	$4.99	71%	80	Sharp
1d ago	SELL No	Russia coup attempt in 2026?	96.6¢	177	$171	71%	80	Sharp
1d ago	BUY No	New pandemic before 2028?	79¢	346	$273	71%	80	Sharp
1d ago	SELL No	Will Max Klare finish as a top-5 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season?	98.2¢	36	$35	71%	80	Sharp