| Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? | No | 12.6k | 68.6¢ | 77.5¢ | $9,769 | +$1,123 | $0 | |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | Yes | 4,345 | 79.7¢ | 75.5¢ | $3,280 | −$184 | $0 | |
| Will GameStop acquire eBay? | No | 2,794 | 89¢ | 94.5¢ | $2,640 | +$154 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? | No | 2,668 | 48.4¢ | 95.8¢ | $2,555 | +$1,264 | +$253 | |
| Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? | Yes | 3,670 | 58.4¢ | 67.5¢ | $2,478 | +$335 | +$178 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? | No | 2,108 | 90.2¢ | 92.5¢ | $1,950 | +$49 | +$43 | |
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 4,082 | 50.6¢ | 44.5¢ | $1,817 | −$251 | −$232 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | No | 2,195 | 81¢ | 82.5¢ | $1,811 | +$33 | −$233 | |
| Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain? | Yes | 1,617 | 74.6¢ | 81.5¢ | $1,318 | +$111 | $0 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027? | No | 1,674 | 78.9¢ | 77.5¢ | $1,297 | −$23 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026? | No | 1,362 | 83.8¢ | 87.5¢ | $1,192 | +$50 | $0 | |
| Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026? | No | 1,280 | 80.7¢ | 92.5¢ | $1,184 | +$151 | +$2.85 | |
| Trump goes to space in 2026? | No | 1,181 | 94.8¢ | 97.8¢ | $1,154 | +$35 | +$4.76 | |
| Will OpenAI's frontier output token price be at or above $60 in 2026? | No | 1,187 | 74.5¢ | 97¢ | $1,151 | +$267 | $0 | |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31? | Yes | 2,763 | 50.3¢ | 41.5¢ | $1,147 | −$243 | $0 | |
| UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026? | No | 1,111 | 95.4¢ | 98.3¢ | $1,092 | +$32 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026? | Yes | 1,469 | 72¢ | 73.5¢ | $1,080 | +$22 | $0 | |
| Will GPT Sol's output price be at or above $20 in 2026? | No | 1,084 | 73.3¢ | 98.6¢ | $1,069 | +$274 | $0 | |
| Trump meets with Putin by December 31? | Yes | 1,265 | 72.5¢ | 80.5¢ | $1,019 | +$102 | $0 | |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? | Yes | 1,191 | 77¢ | 74¢ | $882 | −$36 | $0 | |
| Will Claude Opus's output price be at or above $50 in 2026? | No | 885 | 88.9¢ | 98.9¢ | $875 | +$88 | +$0.48 | |
| Will Trump and Putin not meet? | No | 1,033 | 72.6¢ | 80.5¢ | $832 | +$82 | $0 | |
| Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? | No | 832 | 86.6¢ | 97.4¢ | $810 | +$89 | $0 | |
| Will AI solve 1 more Millennium Prize Problem in 2026? | Yes | 4,546 | 22.2¢ | 17.5¢ | $796 | −$213 | $0 | |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026? | No | 881 | 66.4¢ | 83¢ | $731 | +$146 | −$92 | |
| Will CNN fly with Trump by October 15? | No | 746 | 87.7¢ | 97.8¢ | $729 | +$75 | −$381 | |
| Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30? | Yes | 1,093 | 58.2¢ | 66.5¢ | $727 | +$91 | $0 | |
| Will CNN fly with Trump by October 31? | No | 825 | 81¢ | 87.5¢ | $722 | +$54 | +$11 | |
| Will OpenAI's frontier output token price be at or above $55 in 2026? | No | 990 | 56.6¢ | 68.5¢ | $678 | +$118 | $0 | |
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026? | Yes | 1,783 | 35.5¢ | 36¢ | $642 | +$8.81 | +$4.40 | |
| Will Claude Fable's output price be at or above $55 in 2026? | No | 864 | 59.2¢ | 70¢ | $605 | +$93 | $0 | |
| Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at an output token price of at least $60 by June 30, 2027? | No | 596 | 69.3¢ | 95¢ | $566 | +$153 | $0 | |
| Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? | No | 558 | 86¢ | 93.5¢ | $522 | +$42 | $0 | |
| Will Claude Opus 5.6+ debut at an output token price of at least $30 by June 30, 2027? | No | 534 | 82.9¢ | 96.1¢ | $513 | +$70 | $0 | |
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 686 | 74.1¢ | 66.5¢ | $456 | −$52 | $0 | |
| Will Claude Fable's output price be at or above $60 in 2026? | No | 560 | 78.1¢ | 79¢ | $442 | +$4.99 | $0 | |
| Will GPT Astra's output price be at or above $75 in 2026? | No | 512 | 71.7¢ | 78¢ | $399 | +$32 | $0 | |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 9, 2026? | No | 384 | 87.2¢ | 99.8¢ | $383 | +$48 | $0 | |
| Pakistan military action against Yemen by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 1,727 | 37.2¢ | 22¢ | $380 | −$263 | −$94 | |
| Will Claude Sonnet's output price be at or above $15 in 2026? | No | 430 | 84.1¢ | 87.5¢ | $376 | +$15 | $0 | |
| Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain? | Yes | 2,096 | 19.8¢ | 17.7¢ | $370 | −$46 | +$231 | |
| Trump meets with Putin by November 30? | Yes | 486 | 71.2¢ | 75.5¢ | $367 | +$21 | $0 | |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 31? | Yes | 1,838 | 52.5¢ | 19.5¢ | $358 | −$606 | $0 | |
| Will Donald Trump attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | No | 359 | 85¢ | 95.2¢ | $341 | +$37 | −$79 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by February 28, 2027? | Yes | 1,312 | 21.8¢ | 26¢ | $341 | +$55 | +$6.54 | |
| Pakistan military action against Yemen by December 31, 2026? | No | 490 | 55.2¢ | 68.5¢ | $335 | +$65 | −$34 | |
| Situational Awareness raises new capital by October 31? | No | 345 | 27¢ | 95.5¢ | $330 | +$236 | $0 | |
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 1,378 | 58¢ | 23.5¢ | $324 | −$476 | +$5.01 | |
| Will Claude Opus's output price be at or above $30 in 2026? | No | 430 | 76.3¢ | 73¢ | $314 | −$14 | $0 | |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 2,144 | 38¢ | 14.5¢ | $311 | −$503 | −$3,644 | |
| Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31? | Yes | 6,670 | 9¢ | 4.5¢ | $300 | −$298 | +$24 | |
| No one announced as next James Bond? | No | 424 | 75.1¢ | 67.6¢ | $287 | −$32 | $0 | |
| Will Claude Sonnet's output price be at or above $20 in 2026? | No | 301 | 84.2¢ | 94¢ | $283 | +$29 | $0 | |
| Weed rescheduled by December 31? | Yes | 6,195 | 27.6¢ | 4.6¢ | $282 | −$1,428 | −$415 | |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 23, 2026? | No | 312 | 77.6¢ | 87.5¢ | $273 | +$31 | $0 | |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 16, 2026? | No | 285 | 78.8¢ | 94.8¢ | $270 | +$46 | +$39 | |
| Will GPT Sol's output price be at or above $15 in 2026? | No | 360 | 65.3¢ | 74¢ | $266 | +$31 | $0 | |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? | No | 222 | 89¢ | 93.5¢ | $208 | +$9.99 | −$135 | |
| Will Claude Fable's output price be at or above $70 in 2026? | No | 220 | 87.5¢ | 93.2¢ | $205 | +$13 | $0 | |
| Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? | Yes | 256 | 76.8¢ | 76¢ | $195 | −$1.97 | $0 | |
| Will Donald Trump endorse J.D. Vance in the 2028 US Presidential election? | Yes | 390 | 34.8¢ | 49.5¢ | $193 | +$57 | +$39 | |
| GTA VI released by November 30? | Yes | 192 | 89¢ | 94.6¢ | $182 | +$11 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026? | Yes | 1,566 | 45.5¢ | 10.5¢ | $164 | −$549 | −$453 | |
| Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 750 | 10.8¢ | 21.8¢ | $164 | +$83 | +$0.72 | |
| Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026? | No | 177 | 64.3¢ | 89.5¢ | $158 | +$45 | +$577 | |
| Will Claude Opus's output price be at or above $25 in 2026? | No | 217 | 70¢ | 70¢ | $152 | $0 | $0 | |
| Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 15? | Yes | 883 | 15¢ | 14.5¢ | $128 | −$4.42 | $0 | |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | Yes | 1,145 | 33.8¢ | 10.5¢ | $120 | −$267 | +$113 | |
| Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | 42.3k | 10.3¢ | 0.3¢ | $106 | −$4,254 | −$15 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 692 | 48.8¢ | 14.5¢ | $100 | −$237 | −$1,636 | |
| Will Donald Trump publicly praise Zohran Mamdani by October 31, 2026? | No | 219 | 32¢ | 44.5¢ | $98 | +$27 | $0 | |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | Yes | 1,933 | 27.8¢ | 5¢ | $96 | −$441 | −$5.71 | |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? | Yes | 529 | 35.7¢ | 18¢ | $95 | −$94 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI's frontier output token price be at or above $70 in 2026? | No | 94 | 89.2¢ | 94.6¢ | $89 | +$5.04 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)? | No | 267 | 40.2¢ | 32.9¢ | $88 | −$20 | +$23 | |
| NATO dissolves before 2027? | No | 87 | 92¢ | 98.6¢ | $86 | +$5.73 | $0 | |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | Yes | 630 | 25.8¢ | 11¢ | $69 | −$94 | +$79 | |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31? | Yes | 356 | 41¢ | 18.5¢ | $66 | −$80 | $0 | |
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy) | No | 75 | 44¢ | 82.5¢ | $62 | +$29 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 72 | 73¢ | 76.5¢ | $55 | +$2.54 | $0 | |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | No | 1,190 | 59.9¢ | 4.5¢ | $53 | −$659 | −$45 | |
| Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? | Yes | 1,326 | 18¢ | 3.6¢ | $48 | −$191 | $0 | |
| Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? | Yes | 901 | 3.4¢ | 4.3¢ | $39 | +$8.11 | $0 | |
| Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31? | Yes | 444 | 27.7¢ | 8.5¢ | $38 | −$85 | +$61 | |
| Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | Yes | 709 | 17.3¢ | 4.5¢ | $32 | −$91 | −$275 | |
| Will GPT Sol's output price be at or below $8 in 2026? | Yes | 85 | 27.2¢ | 37.5¢ | $32 | +$8.72 | $0 | |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison? | Yes | 118 | 23.3¢ | 27¢ | $32 | +$4.33 | $0 | |
| Nothing Ever Happens: October | Something | 413 | 6¢ | 7¢ | $29 | +$4.13 | $0 | |
| Will Donald Trump visit Ukraine in 2026? | Yes | 545 | 10.7¢ | 4.9¢ | $26 | −$32 | $0 | |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 15? | Yes | 568 | 14¢ | 4.5¢ | $26 | −$54 | $0 | |
| Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | 10.1k | 5.3¢ | 0.3¢ | $25 | −$509 | +$4.42 | |
| Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 31? | Yes | 487 | 12¢ | 4.5¢ | $22 | −$37 | $0 | |
| Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? | Yes | 340 | 31.8¢ | 6¢ | $20 | −$88 | −$19 | |
| US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by December 31? | Yes | 49 | 41¢ | 40.5¢ | $20 | −$0.24 | $0 | |
| Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Yes | 511 | 6.6¢ | 3.8¢ | $19 | −$15 | +$353 | |
| Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon before 2027? | Yes | 171 | 64.8¢ | 9.6¢ | $16 | −$94 | −$49 | |
| Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 36 | 64.3¢ | 45¢ | $16 | −$6.92 | $0 | |
| Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by October 15, 2026? | Yes | 49 | 43.5¢ | 32¢ | $16 | −$5.66 | $0 | |
| Will GPT Astra's output price be at or above $60 in 2026? | No | 20 | 59¢ | 64¢ | $13 | +$1.00 | $0 | |
| Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by September 30? | No | 13 | 91.2¢ | 99.4¢ | $13 | +$1.05 | $0 | |
