sharpside
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Traders/Rank #6,536

AdrianFuller6610

0x2b7…f1d9
PoliticsSportCultureCryptoOtherWeather
Polymarket
PnL all-time−$394vol $101k
PnL 30d−$41gains $0 · losses $0
PnL 7d−$13win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate58.1%adj 57.5% · 30d 0.0%
Open value$101cash n/a
Positions35 / 296open / all-time
Max drawdown−92.7%of equity peak
Account age10molast trade 8mo ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL−$528below peak −$857Oct 12

SharpScore inputs

28/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 58.1% · shrunk toward 50%44
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable82
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d0
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity7

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 35

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Over $600M raised on Coinbase in 2026?Yes36672¢22.5¢$82−$181$0
Over $400M raised on Coinbase in 2026?No1618.3¢66.3¢$11+$7.68$0
Will Kathy Hochul win the 2026 New York Democratic Gubernatorial Primary?Yes489¢100¢$4.30+$0.47+$3.41
Will Umaro Sissoco Embaló win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?No498.7¢88.6¢$3.55−$0.40+$0.10
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2025–2026 NBA Southwest Division?No37847¢0¢$0−$178$0
Will Lauri Markkanen be traded this season?Yes20222¢0¢$0−$44$0
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 11?Yes19726¢0¢$0−$51$0
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations in 2025?Yes1941.6¢0¢$0−$3.07−$0.54
Will Lighter dip to $1 before 2027?No15070¢0¢$0−$105+$1.79
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 5?No11545.2¢0¢$0−$52$0
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy in 2025?Yes1081.1¢0¢$0−$1.19$0
Will Delroy Lindo be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No9294¢0¢$0−$86−$0.65
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT in 2025?Yes682.1¢0¢$0−$1.43$0
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2025?Yes672.1¢0¢$0−$1.41$0
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during the announcement on December 22?No6164¢0¢$0−$39$0
Foreign intervention in Gaza in 2025?Yes602.1¢0¢$0−$1.26$0
Will turnout in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election be between 44% and 46%?Yes5915¢0¢$0−$8.85$0
Will Trump say "Women's Sports" or "Transgender" at the FIFA World Cup Draw on December 5?Yes5822¢0¢$0−$13$0
Dan Clancy out as Twitch CEO in 2025?Yes463.2¢0¢$0−$1.46+$0.03
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?No3835¢0¢$0−$13−$11
Over 35,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?Yes373¢0¢$0−$1.11$0
Will SpaceX have between 180-199 launches in 2025?Yes363.1¢0¢$0−$1.12$0
Will NYC have between 5 and 6 inches of precipitation in December?Yes344¢0¢$0−$1.36−$0.32
Will November 2025 be the 3rd hottest on record?No343.7¢0¢$0−$1.26+$2.18
Will Solstice launch a token by June 30 2026?No346¢0¢$0−$2.04$0
Israel x Turkey military clash in 2025?Yes321.8¢0¢$0−$0.58−$0.21
HCL Million Dollar Marathon: Alan Keating VPIP above 70%?Yes3013¢0¢$0−$3.90$0
Will Solstice launch a token by September 30 2026?No245¢0¢$0−$1.20$0
Uniswap protocol fee switch enabled by December 31?No621.1¢0¢$0−$1.27$0
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes58¢0¢$0−$0.40$0
Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027?No477¢0¢$0−$3.08−$16
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 75%?No461.5¢0¢$0−$2.24−$15
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?No387¢0¢$0−$2.61−$4.62
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” by March 31?No239.6¢0¢$0−$0.79−$4.10
Will Fomo launch a token by June 30 2026?Yes126¢0¢$0−$0.26+$0.64

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
SELL NoWill Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?27¢6$1.6258%28
SELL NoWill Scott Wiener receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?39¢8$3.1258%28
SELL NoFreddie Mac IPO before 2027?70¢91$6458%28
SELL NoFreddie Mac IPO before 2027?70¢157$11058%28
SELL NoFreddie Mac IPO before 2027?70¢194$13658%28
BUY NoFreddie Mac IPO before 2027?68¢442$30158%28
SELL NoIsrael and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?73¢488$35658%28
SELL NoWill the Orlando Magic win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?48¢12$5.7658%28
BUY NoCerebras IPO before 2027?27¢142$3858%28
SELL NoWill xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?66¢5$3.3058%28
SELL NoWill Michelle Williams (Dying for Sex) win Best Actress – Limited Series at the 83rd Golden Globes?69¢252$17458%28
BUY NoWill Michelle Williams (Dying for Sex) win Best Actress – Limited Series at the 83rd Golden Globes?69¢252$17458%28
SELL NoWill Israel strike Greater Beirut by March 31, 2026?23¢231$5358%28
BUY NoWill the San Antonio Spurs win the 2025–2026 NBA Southwest Division?47¢378$17858%28
BUY NoWill xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?67¢5$3.3558%28
BUY NoWill Israel strike Greater Beirut by March 31, 2026?22¢231$5158%28
SELL NoWill the New England Patriots be eliminated in the Wild Card Round?61¢13$7.9358%28
SELL YesWill Lauri Markkanen be traded this season?22¢6$1.3258%28
SELL NoWill the Buffalo Bills be eliminated in the Wild Card Round?49¢83$4158%28
SELL NoWill the Buffalo Bills be eliminated in the Wild Card Round?49¢20$9.8058%28