sharpside
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Traders/Rank #121

TheReturnOfDarthMaul

0x3a8…7699
WhalePnL 1M+PnL 100k+PnL 50k+PnL 10k+PoliticsSportOther
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$1.46Mvol $26.6M
PnL 30d+$1.76Mgains $2.34M · losses $64.3k
PnL 7d−$239kwin rate 7d 42.9%
Win rate52.7%adj 52.6% · 30d 75.0%
Open value$1.70Mcash n/a
Positions70 / 1,206open / all-time
Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak
Account age8molast trade 1h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$1.34Mbelow peak −$325kOct 8

SharpScore inputs

53/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale88
Adjusted win rateraw 52.7% · shrunk toward 50%32
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d100
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? · Yesclosed+$1.97MWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · Noclosed+$153kWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · Yesopen+$96.3kFed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? · Yesclosed+$70.4kFed rate hike in 2026? · Yesclosed+$59.3k

Worst markets

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? · Noclosed−$420kWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? · Yesclosed−$324kWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yesopen−$257kWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? · Yesopen−$65.3kWill Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? · Noopen−$57.8k

Open positions · 70

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes594k79.3¢95.6¢$567k+$96.3k$0
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?No177k90.4¢92.5¢$163k+$3,680$0
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?No148k82.4¢73.5¢$109k−$13.1k$0
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes575k60.2¢15.5¢$89.1k−$257k$0
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?Yes80.4k68¢81.5¢$65.6k+$10.9k$0
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?No140k87¢45.6¢$63.6k−$57.8k$0
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?Yes74.6k81.6¢77.5¢$57.8k−$3,080$0
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?No50.7k93.9¢99.6¢$50.5k+$2,864$0
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?Yes49.9k78.8¢93.5¢$46.7k+$7,327$0
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Yes106k85.1¢43.5¢$46.1k−$44.0k$0
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?No44.5k78¢97.1¢$43.2k+$8,512−$2,100
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?No50.0k85¢77.5¢$38.7k−$3,750$0
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?No33.0k88.7¢97.9¢$32.3k+$3,020$0
Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026?No28.7k87.9¢98¢$28.1k+$2,879$0
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?No26.9k84.9¢98.2¢$26.4k+$3,568−$31
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Yes159k52.5¢15.5¢$24.7k−$59.1k−$6,241
Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026?No24.0k82.9¢99.4¢$23.9k+$3,947$0
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes25.0k91.6¢90.5¢$22.6k−$275$0
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?No20.7k86.3¢95.9¢$19.9k+$1,977$0
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No20.0k92¢90.5¢$18.1k−$300$0
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?No17.0k87.4¢97.6¢$16.6k+$1,734$0
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Yes20.0k88.5¢81.5¢$16.3k−$1,400$0
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?No15.5k94¢95.7¢$14.8k+$252$0
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?Yes15.4k74.1¢75.5¢$11.6k+$209$0
Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?Yes11.9k83.2¢78¢$9,298−$616$0
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?No9,43992.5¢96.8¢$9,133+$398$0
Xi Jinping out before 2027?No8,00093.6¢97.4¢$7,788+$303$0
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?Yes13.0k49¢55.5¢$7,215+$845$0
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseYes25.0k28¢27.5¢$6,875−$125$0
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?No5,88484.2¢99.4¢$5,845+$889$0
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?No32.0k18.1¢16.5¢$5,280−$500$0
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?No5,00091.6¢96.7¢$4,835+$255$0
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?No5,00075.8¢95.4¢$4,768+$978$0
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?Yes5,00075.3¢93¢$4,650+$883+$187
US recession by end of 2026?No4,70079¢93.5¢$4,395+$684$0
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No5,00073¢84.5¢$4,225+$575$0
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027?No3,60090.7¢97.8¢$3,521+$254$0
Stripe IPO before 2027?No2,90288¢97.7¢$2,834+$279$0
Will Hyperliquid dip to $8 by December 31, 2026?No2,68184.8¢98.6¢$2,642+$370$0
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026?No2,50077.2¢97.5¢$2,436+$506$0
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?Anthropic2,50493.3¢96.2¢$2,408+$73$0
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?Anthropic2,50091¢91.5¢$2,287+$13$0
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?No2,30091¢95.3¢$2,190+$98$0
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?Yes20.6k13.4¢9.5¢$1,955−$808$0
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?No1,87693¢98.9¢$1,856+$111$0
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?No1,20066¢94.6¢$1,135+$342$0
Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?Yes9,00076¢12.5¢$1,125−$5,715−$620
Anthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?Anthropic + OpenAI 3,00069¢32.5¢$975−$1,095$0
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31?No96692¢98¢$947+$58$0
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?Yes1,80255¢45.5¢$820−$171$0
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?Yes9,92013¢6.5¢$640−$650+$3.98
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?Yes73076.3¢83.5¢$610+$52$0
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?Yes8,00045.8¢7.5¢$600−$3,064−$944
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?Yes10.0k28.5¢5.5¢$550−$2,297$0
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?Yes2,00013.5¢21.5¢$430+$160$0
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?No1,06581.9¢40¢$426−$446$0
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31?No41683¢97.4¢$405+$60$0
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?No37775¢97.6¢$368+$85$0
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?Yes15.0k7¢2.4¢$360−$690$0
Will US unemployment reach at least 7.0% in 2026?No33083.8¢98.3¢$324+$48$0
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?Yes1,01731.6¢20.7¢$210−$111$0
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?No19189.4¢98.7¢$188+$18$0
Will Trump endorse Augusto Cury for President of Brazil?No18399.1¢99.3¢$182+$0.34$0
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes40043.6¢43.8¢$175+$0.60$0
Will Trump endorse Lula da Silva for President of Brazil?No14598.8¢99.6¢$144+$1.13$0
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes40036¢35.5¢$142−$2.00$0
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Yes1,00044.8¢13¢$130−$318$0
Will Sergio Massa win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 Argentina presidential election?No11094.8¢94¢$103−$0.90$0
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?Yes1,91591.1¢2.5¢$47−$1,698$0
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Yes1079.7¢19.5¢$1.95−$6.04+$679

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY NoWill Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?98.8¢283$28053%53
BUY YesWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?36¢400$14453%53
BUY YesWill Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?43.6¢365$15953%53
BUY NoWill Sergio Massa win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 Argentina presidential election?94¢20$1953%53
BUY NoWill Sergio Massa win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 Argentina presidential election?95¢90$8653%53
BUY YesWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?17¢11.0k$1,86753%53
BUY YesWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?17¢1,010$17253%53
BUY YesWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?17¢1,010$17253%53
BUY YesWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?17¢1,010$17253%53
BUY YesWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?17¢1,010$17253%53
BUY NoWill Trump endorse Lula da Silva for President of Brazil?99.3¢6$5.6653%53
BUY NoWill Trump endorse Lula da Silva for President of Brazil?99.2¢60$6053%53
BUY NoWill Trump endorse Lula da Silva for President of Brazil?98.5¢79$7853%53
BUY NoWill Trump endorse Augusto Cury for President of Brazil?99.2¢27$2653%53
BUY NoWill Trump endorse Augusto Cury for President of Brazil?99.1¢157$15553%53
SELL YesWill Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?24¢1,000$24053%53
BUY YesAnother Fed rate hike in 2026?76¢1,588$1,20753%53
SELL YesWill Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?11¢501$5553%53
SELL YesWill Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?12¢1,280$15453%53
SELL NoWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?10.5¢2,000$21053%53