sharpside
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Traders/Rank #6,295

CDReves

0x3bf…70a4
Politics
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$2,011vol $147k
PnL 30d+$837gains $1,150 · losses $381
PnL 7d+$701win rate 7d 100.0%
Win rate55.1%adj 54.6% · 30d 67.6%
Open value$9,006cash n/a
Positions85 / 270open / all-time
Max drawdown−22.6%of equity peak
Account age6molast trade 18h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$2,736below peak $0Oct 14

SharpScore inputs

62/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale47
Adjusted win rateraw 55.1% · shrunk toward 50%37
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable81
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d98
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity77

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 85

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?No4,65087.7¢98.4¢$4,573+$494+$33
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseNo60091.1¢90.5¢$543−$3.50$0
Will there be no Hormuz agreement?Yes60088.3¢89.5¢$537+$7.10$0
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?No52985.2¢94.5¢$500+$49$0
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?Yes1,06434.8¢42¢$447+$77−$6.45
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?No33488.7¢99¢$330+$34+$49
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No40083¢82.5¢$330−$2.00$0
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No25013¢86.5¢$216+$184$0
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?Yes48233.1¢43¢$207+$48$0
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?Yes64426.4¢32¢$206+$36+$27
Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 5-October 11?No25076.6¢74.5¢$186−$5.26$0
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?No20086¢86.5¢$173+$1.00−$1.50
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes21074.9¢73.5¢$154−$2.85$0
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026?No12885.7¢94.2¢$121+$11−$0.69
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?No10071¢90.5¢$91+$20$0
Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?Yes19015.8¢29.5¢$56+$26$0
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 40–60%?Yes7754.4¢60.5¢$46+$4.65$0
Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?Yes19131.7¢23.5¢$45−$16−$58
Will 210-229 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 5-October 11?Yes12035.3¢36.6¢$44+$1.46$0
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes5061¢64.5¢$32+$1.75$0
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?No10041¢28.6¢$29−$12$0
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027?Yes2509.4¢10.2¢$26+$1.92$0
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes10040¢23.5¢$24−$17$0
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?Yes15018.7¢15¢$22−$5.50$0
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?Yes16317.6¢10.5¢$17−$12−$4.16
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes10058¢14.5¢$15−$44$0
Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027?Yes9024.3¢1.1¢$9.48−$29$0
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 15?Yes8056.1¢1.2¢$9.26−$40−$5.20
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?Yes5095.5¢1.2¢$5.85−$22$0
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?Yes10613¢4¢$4.23−$9.58−$11
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027?Yes2501¢1.5¢$3.63+$1.15$0
Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31?No3017.3¢10.8¢$3.23−$1.97$0
Will Șerban Matei be the next Prime Minister of Romania?Yes1001¢0.4¢$0.40−$0.60$0
Will Delia Velculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?Yes1851.1¢0.2¢$0.28−$1.83$0
Will Kostadin Kostadinov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Yes260.9¢0.2¢$0.04−$0.20$0
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027?Yes1,0001¢0¢$0−$9.89$0
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the next leader out before 2027?Yes1,0000.4¢0¢$0−$3.96$0
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes7752.1¢0¢$0−$16−$0.14
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?Yes7352.6¢0¢$0−$19$0
Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?Yes66015.3¢0¢$0−$101$0
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes6001.3¢0¢$0−$8.10$0
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?Yes50445¢0¢$0−$227−$238
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election?Yes46126.3¢0¢$0−$121+$5.19
Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?Yes4299.3¢0¢$0−$40$0
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?No36818.6¢0¢$0−$69+$42
Will 175-199 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?Yes35813.2¢0¢$0−$47$0
Will 150-174 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?Yes35016.6¢0¢$0−$58$0
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19?Yes3507.4¢0¢$0−$26$0
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?No30144.5¢0¢$0−$134−$47
Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4?Yes29332.6¢0¢$0−$95$0
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?Yes25415.2¢0¢$0−$39−$2.46
Will 125-149 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19?Yes2509.4¢0¢$0−$23$0
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No21514¢0¢$0−$30−$33
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?Yes20020¢0¢$0−$40$0
Will 200-224 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?Yes20022¢0¢$0−$44$0
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?Yes20061.2¢0¢$0−$122$0
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?Yes2006.5¢0¢$0−$13$0
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?Yes20023.7¢0¢$0−$47$0
Will 175 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19?Yes2005¢0¢$0−$10.00$0
Will 150-174 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19?Yes20010¢0¢$0−$20$0
Will 40 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?Yes1801.6¢0¢$0−$2.86$0
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 10-15%?Yes17515.3¢0¢$0−$27−$0.41
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?Yes15744.1¢0¢$0−$69$0
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?Yes15018¢0¢$0−$27−$23
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Yes1450.7¢0¢$0−$1.01−$0.05
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?Yes1453.8¢0¢$0−$5.49−$1.15
Next OpenAI GPT Sol (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026?No14219.9¢0¢$0−$28−$7.79
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 21-September 27?Yes14020.3¢0¢$0−$28$0
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?No12750.9¢0¢$0−$65−$58
Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 21-September 27?Yes11110.1¢0¢$0−$11$0
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?Yes1002¢0¢$0−$2.00$0
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 10–15%?Yes10010¢0¢$0−$10$0
Will 225 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?Yes10015¢0¢$0−$15$0
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?Yes9012¢0¢$0−$11$0
Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 21-September 27?Yes896.5¢0¢$0−$5.75$0
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?Yes7520.7¢0¢$0−$16+$44
Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?Yes6596.9¢0¢$0−$63−$97
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?Yes6069.8¢0¢$0−$42−$166
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 20%+?Yes603.2¢0¢$0−$1.94−$0.08
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?Yes5015¢0¢$0−$7.50$0
Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13?Yes5033.4¢0¢$0−$17$0
Will Fatima Shaban win the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election?No4012¢0¢$0−$4.80$0
Next OpenAI GPT Sol (5.7+) released by November 30, 2026?No219¢0¢$0−$1.89−$0.34
Will there be between 30 and 34 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30?Yes204.9¢0¢$0−$0.98$0
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?No1532¢0¢$0−$4.71$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
SELL NoStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?98.7¢200$19755%62
SELL NoStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?98.9¢0$0.3855%62
BUY YesIsrael military action against Lebanon on October 13?97.9¢250$24555%62
SELL NoStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?99.1¢100$9955%62
SELL YesWill 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?11¢100$1155%62
SELL YesWill 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?21¢23$4.9055%62
BUY NoUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?95.8¢100$9655%62
BUY YesWill 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?37¢100$3755%62
BUY YesWill "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?19¢50$9.5055%62
SELL NoStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?99.1¢100$9955%62
BUY YesWill 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?38¢20$7.6455%62
BUY YesWill 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?37.8¢89$3455%62
BUY YesWill 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?37¢100$3755%62
BUY NoWill 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 5-October 11?76.4¢81$6255%62
BUY YesWill 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?39¢100$3955%62
BUY YesWill 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?32¢50$1655%62
BUY YesWill "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 40–60%?53¢40$2155%62
BUY YesWill "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?19¢50$9.5055%62
SELL YesWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?25¢100$2555%62
SELL YesWill no listed leader be out before 2027?46¢50$2355%62