sharpside
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Traders/Rank #1,082

TradeDeficitArchitect

0x477…19aa
SharpWhalePnL 100k+PnL 50k+PnL 10k+WR 60+1y+PoliticsSport
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$189kvol $8.84M
PnL 30d+$2,118gains $659 · losses $1,372
PnL 7d+$1,738win rate 7d 66.7%
Win rate67.2%adj 66.5% · 30d 72.7%
Open value$162kcash n/a
Positions105 / 2,269open / all-time
Max drawdown−9.7%of equity peak
Account age5.9ylast trade 3d ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$202kbelow peak −$830Oct 10

SharpScore inputs

77/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale75
Adjusted win rateraw 67.2% · shrunk toward 50%66
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d88
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity90

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 100

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No36.0k50¢91.4¢$32.9k+$14.9k$0
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseNo20.0k83.7¢91.5¢$18.3k+$1,550$0
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No13.0k82.8¢97¢$12.6k+$1,844$0
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No10,00078¢84.5¢$8,450+$650$0
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?No7,10670.2¢95.6¢$6,790+$1,802$0
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No7,02368.4¢95.5¢$6,707+$1,905$0
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?No6,22091.2¢96.1¢$5,978+$302$0
Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026?No6,38491.7¢90.5¢$5,778−$77$0
Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?No6,39480.5¢81.5¢$5,212+$63$0
Trump out as President before 2027?No5,00085¢95.9¢$4,792+$542$0
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes7,46850¢63.5¢$4,742+$1,008−$6.25
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?No4,53848.3¢90.5¢$4,107+$1,914$0
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?No5,23873.2¢70.5¢$3,693−$140$0
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Yes3,73492.2¢96.1¢$3,587+$146$0
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes36.0k50¢8.6¢$3,114−$14.9k−$293
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?No4,00050¢62.5¢$2,500+$500+$17
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?No2,50093¢100¢$2,500+$175$0
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No2,50091.8¢97.8¢$2,445+$150$0
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No2,50077¢81¢$2,024+$99+$153
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?No2,00083¢88.5¢$1,770+$110+$720
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?No1,76780¢97.8¢$1,728+$314$0
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Yes2,33771¢65.5¢$1,531−$129$0
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?No2,00061.4¢75.5¢$1,510+$282$0
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?No1,64578.8¢82.2¢$1,351+$54+$495
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes7,36128.1¢15.5¢$1,137−$934−$27
Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?No5,00023¢22.5¢$1,125−$25$0
Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026?No1,14089¢98¢$1,117+$102$0
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?Yes1,17388.1¢84.5¢$991−$43$0
Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?Yes2,00047¢47.5¢$950+$10.00$0
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?No93077¢97.2¢$903+$187$0
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No1,00087¢86.8¢$868−$2.50+$3.41
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?No1,00088¢84.5¢$845−$35$0
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes2,00043.2¢40.7¢$813−$51$0
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yes86633.6¢87.8¢$761+$469$0
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?No76461¢96.4¢$736+$270$0
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No1,10062.5¢64.5¢$709+$23$0
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No1,00050¢62.5¢$625+$125+$75
Anne Hathaway baby: Boy or Girl?Boy1,16551.4¢49.5¢$576−$22$0
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?No2,44529.9¢23.5¢$575−$157$0
Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027?No58280.4¢93.1¢$542+$74$0
Will Jared Polis announce a Presidential run before 2027?No52191.3¢97.1¢$506+$30$0
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?No41481¢97.5¢$403+$68$0
Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?Yes45072.2¢80.5¢$363+$37$0
Will the Republicans win the Georgia governor race in 2026?No67547¢48¢$324+$6.75$0
Will the Republican Party win the TX-15 House seat?No34251.4¢80.5¢$276+$100$0
Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?Yes4,7124.7¢5.7¢$266+$45$0
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes19.2k3.1¢1.3¢$240−$364$0
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes14.5k1.8¢1.6¢$232−$29$0
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?Yes30381¢61.5¢$187−$59$0
Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME Person of the Year 2026?No24371¢71.5¢$174+$1.22$0
Will AI solve 1 more Millennium Prize Problem in 2026?Yes96217.5¢17.5¢$168$0$0
Will Tom Brady announce a presidential run before 2027?No16290¢96.5¢$156+$11$0
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-25 House seat?Yes20073¢75.5¢$151+$5.00$0
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-15 House seat?Yes18649.9¢79.5¢$148+$55$0
Will Jackson Olson be eliminated in week 4 of Dancing With The Stars: Season 35?No14050¢100¢$140+$70−$1.75
Will Raphael Warnock announce a Presidential run before 2028?Yes22039¢46.5¢$102+$16$0
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?No10052¢99.7¢$100+$48$0
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship?No10087¢92.5¢$92+$5.50$0
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes22.2k0.3¢0.4¢$89+$12$0
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes10075¢83.5¢$84+$8.50$0
Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?Yes8890¢90.5¢$80+$0.44$0
Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026?Yes8167¢93.8¢$76+$22$0
Will Bernie endorse Dan Osborn for NE-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?No8258¢90.9¢$75+$27$0
Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026?Yes8069¢88.5¢$71+$16$0
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?Yes21249¢30.5¢$65−$39$0
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes66414¢9.5¢$63−$30$0
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election by 9%-12%?Yes34415.1¢18¢$62+$9.96$0
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election by 3%-6%?No6491.5¢93.4¢$60+$1.22$0
Will Hunter Biden announce a Presidential run before 2027?No6290¢95.4¢$59+$3.35$0
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes20.4k0.9¢0.3¢$51−$140+$13
Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?No21227.1¢23.1¢$49−$8.50$0
Will Josh Shapiro announce a Presidential run before 2028?No12731¢35¢$44+$5.08$0
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes1,8684¢2¢$37−$37$0
Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?No1,0003¢3.4¢$34+$4.00$0
Will Andrew Yang announce a Presidential run before 2027?No3090.5¢95.5¢$29+$1.50$0
Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2028?No4547¢49¢$22+$0.91$0
Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026?No1463.4¢74.5¢$10+$1.53$0
Will December be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026?No1077.9¢91.5¢$8.88+$1.32$0
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be TIME Person of the Year 2026?Yes1008¢7.5¢$7.50−$0.50$0
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election by 6%-9%?Yes4215¢17¢$7.14+$0.84$0
Will AI solve 3 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?Yes5002.2¢0.6¢$3.00−$8.00$0
Will the Republicans win the Michigan governor race in 2026?Yes3024¢6.6¢$1.97−$5.24$0
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year?No194¢95.5¢$1.03+$0.02$0
Will the U.S. national debt hit $42 trillion before 2027?Yes1428¢4.2¢$0.58−$3.32$0
Will the Democrats win the Montana Senate race in 2026?Yes10012.7¢0.5¢$0.55−$12$0
2026 Balance of Power: OtherYes2500.4¢0.2¢$0.38−$0.63$0
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?No5,05237.6¢0¢$0−$1,899−$22
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?No2,00012¢0¢$0−$240$0
Will Mandela Barnes win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Yes1,40011¢0¢$0−$154$0
Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?Yes1,36558.5¢0¢$0−$798+$8.00
Will Jasmine Crockett and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?Yes1,0000.2¢0¢$0−$2.00$0
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?Yes81042¢0¢$0−$340$0
Will Sara Rodriguez win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Yes23811¢0¢$0−$26$0
Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?Yes20940.8¢0¢$0−$85$0
Will Jasmine Crockett and Wesley Hunt be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?Yes2000¢0¢$0$0$0
Will James Talarico and Wesley Hunt be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?Yes2000¢0¢$0$0$0
Will two candidates other than the listed pairs be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?Yes2000¢0¢$0$0$0
First round outright winner in the LA Mayoral Election?Yes1123.8¢0¢$0−$4.31−$0.17
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?No10042¢0¢$0−$42$0
Will Ben Butler be the Republican nominee for FL-09?Yes10015.3¢0¢$0−$15$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY YesWill AI solve 1 more Millennium Prize Problem in 2026?18¢481$8767%77Sharp
BUY YesWill an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?71¢637$45267%77Sharp
BUY YesWill AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?4.8¢4,412$21267%77Sharp
BUY NoWill AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?32.5¢289$9467%77Sharp
BUY YesWill the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election by 9%-12%?18¢100$1867%77Sharp
BUY YesWill Raphael Warnock win the 2028 US Presidential Election?0.4¢10.1k$4067%77Sharp
BUY NoWill Jackson Olson be eliminated in week 4 of Dancing With The Stars: Season 35?50¢140$7067%77Sharp
BUY NoWill Zohran Mamdani be TIME Person of the Year 2026?71¢44$3167%77Sharp
BUY NoWill Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2028?47¢45$2167%77Sharp
BUY NoWill Josh Shapiro announce a Presidential run before 2028?31¢127$3967%77Sharp
BUY YesWill Raphael Warnock announce a Presidential run before 2028?39¢220$8667%77Sharp
BUY NoWill the Republicans win the Georgia governor race in 2026?47¢675$31767%77Sharp
BUY YesWill Raphael Warnock win the 2028 US Presidential Election?0.3¢7,117$2167%77Sharp
BUY NoWill the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?27.3¢12$3.2567%77Sharp
BUY NoWill the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?73¢8$5.8467%77Sharp
BUY NoWill AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?44¢56$2567%77Sharp
BUY BoyAnne Hathaway baby: Boy or Girl?52¢500$26067%77Sharp
BUY BoyAnne Hathaway baby: Boy or Girl?51¢480$24567%77Sharp
BUY BoyAnne Hathaway baby: Boy or Girl?50¢40$2067%77Sharp
BUY YesWill the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election by 9%-12%?14¢224$3167%77Sharp