Traders/Rank #2,406

forgotmydinner

0x4a0…a4b1

PnL 10k+<7d old<14d old<30d oldSportOtherCulturePolitics

Polymarket

PnL all-time+$16.9kvol $553k

PnL 30d+$52.7kgains $25.3k · losses $5,499

PnL 7d+$52.7kwin rate 7d 39.1%

Win rate39.1%adj 39.9% · 30d 39.1%

Open value$2,312cash n/a

Positions317 / 550open / all-time

Max drawdown−9.0%of equity peak

Account age3dlast trade 25m ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$62.6kbelow peak $0Oct 8

SharpScore inputs

60/ 100 SharpScore · v1

Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale60

Adjusted win rateraw 39.1% · shrunk toward 50%0

Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable91

Recencylast trade; fades over 30d100

Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity91

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yesclosed+$7,881 Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yesclosed+$3,099 Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yesopen+$2,693 Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? · Yesclosed+$2,058 Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? · Yesclosed+$1,923

Worst markets

Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? · Yesclosed−$827 Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? · Yesopen−$700 Will Rwanda win on 2026-10-05? · Yesopen−$543 Will the New York Yankees win the 2026 World Series? · Yesopen−$540 Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? · Yesopen−$509

Open positions · 100

Market	Outcome		Avg entry	Now			Realized	Ends
Will Bayern Munich be the 2026-27 Bundesliga champion?	Yes	500	4.5¢	83.5¢	$418	+$395	+$785	8mo
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	538	3.8¢	41.5¢	$223	+$203	+$969	3mo
Will Toronto Raptors win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	5,854	2.8¢	3.3¢	$190	+$28	+$2.88	9mo
Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	1,500	2.8¢	11.1¢	$166	+$124	+$400	9mo
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	400	1.3¢	39.9¢	$159	+$154	+$2,538	3mo
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	2,500	2.8¢	5.3¢	$131	+$62	+$104	9mo
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	2,500	2.8¢	3.8¢	$94	+$24	+$13	9mo
Will Indiana Pacers win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	4,153	2.8¢	2.2¢	$89	−$26	−$11	9mo
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	2,500	2.8¢	3.2¢	$79	+$9.31	+$9.83	9mo
Will Roma win the 2026-27 Serie A Championship?	Yes	400	4.2¢	16.9¢	$68	+$51	$0	8mo
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	86	3.3¢	73.5¢	$63	+$61	+$1,508	51d 1h
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	1,800	1.3¢	2.9¢	$52	+$29	+$61	3mo
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	600	3.8¢	6.5¢	$39	+$16	+$27	3mo
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	1,600	1.3¢	2.3¢	$36	+$15	+$52	3mo
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	85	3.8¢	42.5¢	$36	+$33	+$1,031	3mo
Will Houston Rockets win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	1,500	2.8¢	1.9¢	$28	−$14	−$35	9mo
Will Utah Jazz win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	2,500	2.8¢	1.1¢	$26	−$43	−$69	9mo
Will Juventus win the 2026-27 Serie A Championship?	Yes	314	4.2¢	6.5¢	$20	+$7.33	+$2.27	8mo
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	200	3¢	9.8¢	$20	+$13	+$129	6mo
Will Como win the 2026-27 Serie A Championship?	Yes	400	4.2¢	4.8¢	$19	+$2.33	$0	8mo
Will AC Milan win the 2026-27 Serie A Championship?	Yes	400	4.2¢	4.2¢	$17	−$0.07	$0	8mo
Will The Odyssey be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?	Yes	40	2.2¢	39.5¢	$16	+$15	$0	3mo
Will Obsession be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?	Yes	40	2.2¢	39¢	$16	+$15	$0	3mo
Will Phoenix Suns win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	2,520	2.8¢	0.5¢	$14	−$56	−$85	9mo
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	600	3.8¢	2.2¢	$13	−$9.88	−$54	3mo
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	986	3¢	1.2¢	$11	−$19	−$26	6mo
Will RB Leipzig be the 2026-27 Bundesliga champion?	Yes	1,491	4.5¢	0.8¢	$11	−$57	−$0.34	8mo
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	200	3¢	5¢	$9.90	+$3.84	+$21	6mo
Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	1,000	2.8¢	1¢	$9.50	−$18	−$97	9mo
Will Lazio win the 2026-27 Serie A Championship?	Yes	400	4.2¢	2.4¢	$9.40	−$7.27	$0	8mo
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	600	3.8¢	1.6¢	$9.30	−$14	−$58	3mo
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	112	3¢	7.9¢	$8.79	+$5.40	+$97	6mo
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	1,774	1.3¢	0.5¢	$7.98	−$15	−$46	3mo
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	2,200	1.3¢	0.4¢	$7.70	−$21	−$38	3mo
Will Atlanta Hawks win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	742	2.8¢	1¢	$7.05	−$14	−$106	9mo
Will Bayer Leverkusen be the 2026-27 Bundesliga champion?	Yes	1,000	4.5¢	0.7¢	$6.50	−$39	−$19	8mo
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	1,400	1.3¢	0.5¢	$6.30	−$12	−$41	3mo
Will SV Elversberg be the 2026-27 Bundesliga champion?	Yes	1,000	4.5¢	0.6¢	$6.00	−$39	−$21	ended
Will Werder Bremen be the 2026-27 Bundesliga champion?	Yes	1,000	4.5¢	0.5¢	$5.50	−$40	−$21	8mo
Will Eintracht Frankfurt be the 2026-27 Bundesliga champion?	Yes	1,000	4.5¢	0.5¢	$5.00	−$40	−$21	ended
Will FC Augsburg be the 2026-27 Bundesliga champion?	Yes	1,000	4.5¢	0.5¢	$5.00	−$40	−$21	8mo
Will Schalke 04 be the 2026-27 Bundesliga champion?	Yes	1,392	4.5¢	0.4¢	$4.87	−$58	−$3.52	8mo
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	1,867	3.8¢	0.3¢	$4.67	−$67	−$34	3mo
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	1,000	3¢	0.5¢	$4.50	−$26	−$38	6mo
Will SC Freiburg be the 2026-27 Bundesliga champion?	Yes	1,000	4.5¢	0.5¢	$4.50	−$41	−$21	8mo
Will VfB Stuttgart be the 2026-27 Bundesliga champion?	Yes	1,000	4.5¢	0.5¢	$4.50	−$41	−$21	8mo
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	2,800	3.8¢	0.2¢	$4.20	−$103	$0	3mo
Will Oura not IPO before January 2027?	Yes	5	12.5¢	83.2¢	$4.16	+$3.54	$0	3mo
Will Brentford win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	536	4.2¢	0.8¢	$4.02	−$18	−$8.89	8mo
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	600	3.8¢	0.7¢	$3.90	−$19	−$77	3mo
Will Hanwha Life Esports win Worlds 2026?	Yes	20	5¢	16.5¢	$3.30	+$2.30	+$14	51d 1h
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	600	3.8¢	0.5¢	$3.30	−$20	−$79	3mo
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	6,393	1.3¢	0.1¢	$3.20	−$80	$0	3mo
Will Luis Diaz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	6,393	1.3¢	0.1¢	$3.20	−$80	$0	22d 1h
Will Jude Bellingham win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	6,393	1.3¢	0.1¢	$3.20	−$80	$0	3mo
Will Pau Cubarsi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	6,393	1.3¢	0.1¢	$3.20	−$80	$0	3mo
Will Vitinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	6,393	1.3¢	0.1¢	$3.20	−$80	$0	3mo
Will Vinícius Júnior win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	6,393	1.3¢	0.1¢	$3.20	−$80	$0	22d 1h
Will Lautaro Martinez win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	6,393	1.3¢	0.1¢	$3.20	−$80	$0	22d 1h
Will Declan Rice win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	6,393	1.3¢	0.1¢	$3.20	−$80	$0	22d 1h
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	6,393	1.3¢	0.1¢	$3.20	−$80	$0	22d 1h
Will Portland Trail Blazers win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	331	2.8¢	1¢	$3.14	−$6.05	−$114	9mo
Will T1 win Worlds 2026?	Yes	20	5¢	15¢	$3.00	+$2.00	+$13	51d 1h
Will Dallas Mavericks win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	500	2.8¢	0.5¢	$2.75	−$11	−$127	9mo
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	600	3.8¢	0.5¢	$2.70	−$20	−$77	3mo
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	600	3.8¢	0.5¢	$2.70	−$20	−$80	3mo
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	200	3¢	1.3¢	$2.60	−$3.46	−$40	6mo
Paul Mescal announced as next James Bond?	Yes	217	2¢	1.2¢	$2.50	−$1.93	+$0.19	3mo
Will 35% to 44% of Cotton acreage be in D1-D4 drought this week?	Yes	4	16.7¢	49.6¢	$1.99	+$1.32	−$0.16	ended
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	3,009	3.1¢	0.1¢	$1.50	−$93	$0	22d 1h
Will Thinky have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	3,009	3.1¢	0.1¢	$1.50	−$93	$0	22d 1h
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	3,009	3.1¢	0.1¢	$1.50	−$93	$0	22d 1h
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	3,009	3.1¢	0.1¢	$1.50	−$93	$0	22d 1h
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	3,009	3.1¢	0.1¢	$1.50	−$93	$0	22d 1h
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	3,009	3.1¢	0.1¢	$1.50	−$93	$0	22d 1h
Will MiniMax have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	3,009	3.1¢	0.1¢	$1.50	−$93	$0	22d 1h
Will StepFun have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	3,009	3.1¢	0.1¢	$1.50	−$93	$0	22d 1h
Will Tencent have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	3,009	3.1¢	0.1¢	$1.50	−$93	$0	22d 1h
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	3,009	3.1¢	0.1¢	$1.50	−$93	$0	22d 1h
Will Nvidia have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	3,009	3.1¢	0.1¢	$1.50	−$93	$0	22d 1h
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	3,009	3.1¢	0.1¢	$1.50	−$93	$0	22d 1h
Will Xiaomi have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	3,009	3.1¢	0.1¢	$1.50	−$93	$0	22d 1h
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	3,009	3.1¢	0.1¢	$1.50	−$93	$0	22d 1h
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	3,009	3.1¢	0.1¢	$1.50	−$93	$0	22d 1h
Will Team Liquid win Worlds 2026?	Yes	140	5¢	1.1¢	$1.47	−$5.53	$0	51d 1h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	200	3.1¢	0.7¢	$1.30	−$4.95	−$76	23d 1h
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	200	3¢	0.7¢	$1.30	−$4.76	−$48	6mo
Will Kuo Hsi win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	2,230	3.3¢	0.1¢	$1.11	−$73	$0	51d 1h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	200	3¢	0.5¢	$1.10	−$4.96	−$58	6mo
Will Greece win the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League?	Yes	40	5.3¢	2.6¢	$1.02	−$1.09	−$1.02	8mo
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	1,000	3.8¢	0.1¢	$1.00	−$37	−$68	3mo
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	4	3.3¢	26.5¢	$0.94	+$0.82	+$505	51d 1h
Richard Madden announced as next James Bond?	Yes	260	2¢	0.3¢	$0.78	−$4.53	$0	3mo
Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be at least $1,165,000 on December 31?	Yes	5	14.3¢	15.5¢	$0.78	+$0.06	$0	3mo
Tom Hardy announced as next James Bond?	Yes	256	2¢	0.3¢	$0.64	−$4.58	−$0.07	3mo
Will Cagliari win the 2026-27 Serie A Championship?	Yes	400	4.2¢	0.2¢	$0.60	−$16	$0	8mo
Timothee Chalamet announced as next James Bond?	Yes	220	2¢	0.3¢	$0.55	−$3.94	−$0.78	3mo
Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,083,000 and $1,104,000 on December 31?	Yes	3	14.3¢	20.5¢	$0.54	+$0.16	−$0.30	3mo
Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	20	10¢	2.6¢	$0.51	−$1.49	$0	15mo
Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond?	Yes	40	2¢	1.2¢	$0.48	−$0.34	−$3.90	3mo

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s

Time	Side	Market	Price	Shares	Value	Trader WR	Sharp
25m ago	SELL Yes	Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals?	18¢	500	$90	39%	60
25m ago	SELL Yes	Will Memphis Grizzlies win the 2027 NBA Finals?	0.2¢	500	$1.00	39%	60
25m ago	SELL Yes	Will Charlotte Hornets win the 2027 NBA Finals?	0.4¢	500	$2.00	39%	60
25m ago	SELL Yes	Will Washington Wizards win the 2027 NBA Finals?	0.8¢	500	$4.00	39%	60
25m ago	SELL Yes	Will Los Angeles Clippers win the 2027 NBA Finals?	0.2¢	500	$1.00	39%	60
25m ago	SELL Yes	Will Sacramento Kings win the 2027 NBA Finals?	0.1¢	500	$0.50	39%	60
25m ago	SELL Yes	Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals?	4¢	500	$20	39%	60
25m ago	SELL Yes	Will Chicago Bulls win the 2027 NBA Finals?	0.2¢	500	$1.00	39%	60
25m ago	SELL Yes	Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals?	22¢	500	$110	39%	60
25m ago	SELL Yes	Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals?	12¢	500	$60	39%	60
25m ago	SELL Yes	Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals?	2.1¢	500	$11	39%	60
25m ago	SELL Yes	Will Milwaukee Bucks win the 2027 NBA Finals?	0.1¢	500	$0.50	39%	60
25m ago	SELL Yes	Will New Orleans Pelicans win the 2027 NBA Finals?	0.1¢	500	$0.50	39%	60
25m ago	SELL Yes	Will Brooklyn Nets win the 2027 NBA Finals?	0.1¢	500	$0.50	39%	60
1h ago	SELL Yes	Will Karmine Corp win Worlds 2026?	0.6¢	20	$0.12	39%	60
2h ago	SELL Yes	Will Fabian Ruiz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	0.1¢	200	$0.20	39%	60
2h ago	SELL Yes	Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	1¢	200	$2.00	39%	60
2h ago	SELL Yes	Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	0.1¢	200	$0.20	39%	60
2h ago	SELL Yes	Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	0.1¢	200	$0.20	39%	60
2h ago	SELL Yes	Will Fabian Ruiz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	0.1¢	200	$0.20	39%	60