| Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? | No | 11.9k | 46.4¢ | 92¢ | $11.0k | +$5,439 | $0 | |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | Yes | 22.3k | 31.6¢ | 42.5¢ | $9,465 | +$2,432 | $0 | |
| Will Kylian Mbappé finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | No | 27.0k | 36.1¢ | 32¢ | $8,638 | −$1,097 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | No | 9,585 | 12¢ | 74.5¢ | $7,141 | +$5,991 | $0 | |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? | Yes | 11.3k | 51.1¢ | 50¢ | $5,638 | −$127 | $0 | |
| Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 14.1k | 42.3¢ | 39.1¢ | $5,494 | −$451 | +$2,038 | |
| No one announced as next James Bond? | Yes | 25.2k | 20.8¢ | 19.5¢ | $4,895 | −$329 | $0 | |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%? | Yes | 19.3k | 34.3¢ | 24.5¢ | $4,737 | −$1,896 | $0 | |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 31? | No | 5,475 | 64¢ | 80¢ | $4,380 | +$876 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? | No | 4,051 | 34.5¢ | 98.9¢ | $4,005 | +$2,606 | $0 | |
| Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election? | No | 9,859 | 34.9¢ | 40.5¢ | $3,993 | +$554 | $0 | |
| Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | Yes | 22.0k | 3.5¢ | 17.5¢ | $3,847 | +$3,076 | $0 | |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 5,255 | 48.1¢ | 69.7¢ | $3,660 | +$1,131 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? | No | 19.5k | 17.5¢ | 18.5¢ | $3,601 | +$192 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | No | 6,000 | 52¢ | 58.5¢ | $3,510 | +$390 | $0 | |
| Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary? | No | 3,280 | 62.2¢ | 87.6¢ | $2,873 | +$834 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? | No | 7,623 | 36.5¢ | 31.5¢ | $2,401 | −$380 | $0 | |
| Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 3,571 | 58¢ | 45.5¢ | $1,625 | −$446 | −$74 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? | No | 2,280 | 57.3¢ | 60¢ | $1,368 | +$62 | $0 | |
| Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? | No | 8,978 | 17¢ | 14.5¢ | $1,302 | −$224 | $0 | |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 4,676 | 45.6¢ | 27.5¢ | $1,286 | −$845 | −$641 | |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%? | No | 2,399 | 51.6¢ | 53.5¢ | $1,283 | +$44 | $0 | |
| Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 7,799 | 17¢ | 15.5¢ | $1,209 | −$115 | $0 | |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? | No | 5,200 | 49.4¢ | 22.5¢ | $1,170 | −$1,400 | $0 | |
| Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? | Yes | 18.7k | 1.9¢ | 5.9¢ | $1,112 | +$766 | $0 | |
| Iran leadership change by November 30? | Yes | 17.7k | 6¢ | 6¢ | $1,061 | $0 | $0 | |
| Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 84.7k | 3.3¢ | 1.1¢ | $890 | −$1,937 | $0 | |
| Will Harry Kane finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | No | 20.0k | 3.4¢ | 4.2¢ | $831 | +$145 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 4,367 | 25.6¢ | 18.5¢ | $808 | −$311 | −$1,134 | |
| Will Lionel Messi finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 2,213 | 30.7¢ | 34.5¢ | $764 | +$83 | $0 | |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? | No | 4,196 | 6.7¢ | 15.2¢ | $638 | +$357 | $0 | |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | Yes | 1,029 | 55¢ | 56.5¢ | $581 | +$15 | $0 | |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | Yes | 5,041 | 11¢ | 11.5¢ | $580 | +$25 | $0 | |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | Yes | 11.7k | 5.1¢ | 4.9¢ | $572 | −$23 | $0 | |
| Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 21.7k | 1.8¢ | 2.6¢ | $554 | +$171 | $0 | |
| Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.25% before 2027? | Yes | 1,314 | 47.8¢ | 37.5¢ | $493 | −$136 | $0 | |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 15? | No | 403 | 82.7¢ | 93¢ | $374 | +$41 | $0 | |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | Yes | 3,200 | 27.9¢ | 11¢ | $352 | −$541 | $0 | |
| Will SpaceXAI officially rename itself to SpaceXSI by October 15? | No | 480 | 65.5¢ | 73¢ | $350 | +$36 | $0 | |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 97.5k | 0.7¢ | 0.4¢ | $341 | −$341 | $0 | |
| Will Rodri finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 1,955 | 15.5¢ | 14¢ | $274 | −$29 | $0 | |
| Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 11.6k | 0.5¢ | 2.3¢ | $262 | +$198 | $0 | |
| Will Majid Takht-Ravanchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 707 | 23.7¢ | 30¢ | $212 | +$45 | $0 | |
| Will Committee to Protect Journalists win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 6,620 | 2.5¢ | 3.2¢ | $212 | +$47 | $0 | |
| Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 7,927 | 1.9¢ | 2.2¢ | $170 | +$16 | $0 | |
| Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 37.2k | 1.3¢ | 0.5¢ | $167 | −$313 | $0 | |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? | Yes | 2,904 | 13.9¢ | 5.5¢ | $160 | −$245 | $0 | |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 97.5k | 0.4¢ | 0.2¢ | $146 | −$244 | $0 | |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 30.0k | 0.7¢ | 0.5¢ | $135 | −$75 | $0 | |
| Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? | Yes | 3,324 | 3¢ | 3.2¢ | $106 | +$6.90 | $0 | |
| Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 15? | Yes | 320 | 14.2¢ | 22¢ | $70 | +$25 | $0 | |
| Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 11.6k | 0.5¢ | 0.6¢ | $70 | +$5.77 | $0 | |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States? | Yes | 2,654 | 2.5¢ | 2.2¢ | $58 | −$7.54 | $0 | |
| Will over 62 Senators vote for the Clarity Act? | Yes | 777 | 24.4¢ | 7¢ | $54 | −$136 | $0 | |
| Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | Yes | 21.4k | 0.1¢ | 0.3¢ | $54 | +$32 | $0 | |
| Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? | Yes | 1,465 | 5.5¢ | 3.3¢ | $48 | −$33 | $0 | |
| Will over 64 Senators vote for the Clarity Act? | Yes | 868 | 9.8¢ | 5.1¢ | $44 | −$41 | $0 | |
| Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | Yes | 1,954 | 2.3¢ | 2.1¢ | $41 | −$4.48 | $0 | |
| Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 11.6k | 0.5¢ | 0.4¢ | $41 | −$23 | $0 | |
| Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | Yes | 26.1k | 0.1¢ | 0.2¢ | $39 | +$13 | $0 | |
| Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | Yes | 19.2k | 0.1¢ | 0.2¢ | $29 | +$9.62 | $0 | |
| Will Lamine Yamal finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | No | 764 | 3.2¢ | 3.6¢ | $28 | +$2.72 | $0 | |
| Will Discord’s market cap be between $11B and $14B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 292 | 16.6¢ | 9¢ | $26 | −$22 | $0 | |
| Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 2,121 | 0.1¢ | 1.2¢ | $24 | +$22 | $0 | |
| Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 6,050 | 0.2¢ | 0.3¢ | $18 | +$6.06 | $0 | |
| Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 1,091 | 1.6¢ | 1.6¢ | $17 | −$0.28 | $0 | |
| Will Fabian Ruiz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 11.6k | 0.5¢ | 0.2¢ | $17 | −$47 | $0 | |
| Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 11.6k | 0.5¢ | 0.2¢ | $17 | −$47 | $0 | |
| Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 34.8k | 0.1¢ | 0.1¢ | $17 | −$17 | $0 | |
| Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 100 | 1.4¢ | 16.3¢ | $16 | +$15 | $0 | |
| Will Discord’s market cap be $20B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 315 | 7.7¢ | 5¢ | $16 | −$8.56 | $0 | |
| Will Mykola Kuleba win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 100 | 1.4¢ | 9.5¢ | $9.50 | +$8.13 | $0 | |
| Will Save the Children win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 100 | 1.4¢ | 7.9¢ | $7.85 | +$6.48 | $0 | |
| Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 11.6k | 0.5¢ | 0.1¢ | $5.82 | −$58 | $0 | |
| Will Luis Diaz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 11.6k | 0.5¢ | 0.1¢ | $5.82 | −$58 | $0 | |
| Will Jude Bellingham win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 11.6k | 0.5¢ | 0.1¢ | $5.82 | −$58 | $0 | |
| Will Pau Cubarsi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 11.6k | 0.5¢ | 0.1¢ | $5.82 | −$58 | $0 | |
| Will Vitinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 11.6k | 0.5¢ | 0.1¢ | $5.82 | −$58 | $0 | |
| Will Vinícius Júnior win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 11.6k | 0.5¢ | 0.1¢ | $5.82 | −$58 | $0 | |
| Will Lautaro Martinez win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 11.6k | 0.5¢ | 0.1¢ | $5.82 | −$58 | $0 | |
| Will Declan Rice win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 11.6k | 0.5¢ | 0.1¢ | $5.82 | −$58 | $0 | |
| Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 11.6k | 0.5¢ | 0.1¢ | $5.82 | −$58 | $0 | |
| Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30? | No | 16 | 32¢ | 32.5¢ | $5.15 | +$0.08 | $0 | |
| Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 100 | 1.4¢ | 4.7¢ | $4.65 | +$3.28 | $0 | |
| Will Hussam Abu Safiya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 100 | 1.4¢ | 2.9¢ | $2.95 | +$1.58 | $0 | |
| Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 100 | 1.4¢ | 2.2¢ | $2.15 | +$0.78 | $0 | |
| Will the International Criminal Court win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 100 | 1.4¢ | 2.1¢ | $2.10 | +$0.73 | $0 | |
| Will the International Space Station win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 100 | 1.4¢ | 2.1¢ | $2.05 | +$0.68 | $0 | |
| Will Doctors Without Borders win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 100 | 1.4¢ | 2.1¢ | $2.05 | +$0.68 | $0 | |
| Will Sara Al-Saqqa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 100 | 1.4¢ | 2¢ | $1.95 | +$0.58 | $0 | |
| Will Ilham Tohti win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 100 | 1.4¢ | 1.9¢ | $1.90 | +$0.53 | $0 | |
| Will UNHCR win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 100 | 1.4¢ | 1.7¢ | $1.70 | +$0.33 | $0 | |
| Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | Yes | 3,360 | 10.7¢ | 0.1¢ | $1.68 | −$357 | $0 | |
| Will Mark Carney win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 100 | 1.4¢ | 1.6¢ | $1.55 | +$0.18 | $0 | |
| Will Jimmy Lai win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 100 | 1.4¢ | 1.4¢ | $1.35 | −$0.02 | $0 | |
| Will ICRC win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 100 | 1.4¢ | 1.3¢ | $1.30 | −$0.07 | $0 | |
| Will Chow Hang-tung win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 100 | 1.4¢ | 1.1¢ | $1.10 | −$0.27 | $0 | |
| Will Reporters Without Borders win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 100 | 1.4¢ | 1.1¢ | $1.05 | −$0.32 | $0 | |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | Yes | 1,931 | 15.7¢ | 0.1¢ | $0.97 | −$303 | $0 | |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | Yes | 1,801 | 12.5¢ | 0.1¢ | $0.90 | −$224 | $0 | |
