Traders/Rank #2,780

1nvoker1

0x748…3c56

PnL 10k+WR 60+Politics

Polymarket

PnL all-time+$12.5kvol $5.93M

PnL 30d−$1,624gains $16.8k · losses $8,869

PnL 7d−$3,060win rate 7d 63.2%

Win rate63.4%adj 62.8% · 30d 67.5%

Open value$51.3kcash n/a

Positions107 / 843open / all-time

Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak

Account age11molast trade 4h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$11.4kbelow peak −$8,098Oct 9

SharpScore inputs

52/ 100 SharpScore · v1

Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale59

Adjusted win rateraw 63.4% · shrunk toward 50%57

Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable98

Recencylast trade; fades over 30d99

Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31? · Noclosed+$4,668 Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · Noclosed+$3,236 US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? · Yesclosed+$2,799 US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · Yesclosed+$2,715 Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? · Noclosed+$2,402

Worst markets

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? · Noclosed−$3,194 US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 · Noclosed−$2,155 US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31? · Yesclosed−$2,046 Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31? · Noclosed−$1,955 Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? · Noclosed−$1,760

Open positions · 100

Market	Outcome		Avg entry	Now			Realized	Ends
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	3,808	48.2¢	85¢	$3,237	+$1,403	+$228	3mo
Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?	Yes	20.3k	15.1¢	15.5¢	$3,150	+$73	+$8.36	15mo
Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?	Yes	26.1k	10.8¢	10.5¢	$2,743	−$68	+$209	15mo
Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?	No	3,042	76.4¢	78.5¢	$2,388	+$65	$0	27mo
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	2,200	84.7¢	90.5¢	$1,991	+$127	+$5.20	24d 22h
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	No	5,486	38.9¢	35.5¢	$1,947	−$187	+$42	3mo
Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?	No	2,515	74.2¢	73.5¢	$1,849	−$17	+$3.88	27mo
Will CoreWeave announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?	Yes	9,845	17.4¢	18.5¢	$1,821	+$111	+$45	27mo
Will North Carolina enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?	Yes	9,836	18¢	18.5¢	$1,820	+$51	+$3.23	15mo
Will Trump and Putin not meet?	Yes	8,789	35.3¢	19.5¢	$1,714	−$1,392	−$20	3mo
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?	Yes	10.2k	16.1¢	15.5¢	$1,581	−$63	+$1.85	27mo
Will Missouri enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?	No	1,831	71.6¢	74.5¢	$1,364	+$53	$0	27mo
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	No	1,517	38.6¢	81.5¢	$1,236	+$650	$0	20d 22h
Will North Carolina enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?	Yes	20.8k	5.9¢	5.5¢	$1,146	−$81	−$1.03	3mo
Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?	Yes	24.7k	6¢	4.5¢	$1,112	−$372	−$11	3mo
Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?	Yes	23.6k	6.1¢	4.5¢	$1,061	−$379	−$7.15	3mo
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	10.0k	13¢	10.5¢	$1,051	−$250	−$680	ended
Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?	Yes	22.7k	5.3¢	4.4¢	$998	−$210	−$264	3mo
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?	No	1,000	67.9¢	94¢	$940	+$261	+$136	3mo
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	1,000	67.7¢	91.5¢	$915	+$238	+$669	3mo
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	5,000	20.4¢	17.5¢	$875	−$146	+$52	3mo
Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?	No	1,000	80¢	80.5¢	$805	+$5.00	$0	15mo
Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027?	Yes	9,420	9.9¢	8.5¢	$801	−$128	−$205	9mo
Will Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2026 World Chess Championship?	Yes	3,000	30.8¢	26.5¢	$795	−$130	$0	9mo
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?	No	1,019	64.8¢	77.5¢	$790	+$129	+$78	3mo
Will Missouri enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?	Yes	16.9k	7¢	4.5¢	$758	−$419	−$6.97	3mo
Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027?	Yes	6,047	15.7¢	12.5¢	$756	−$193	−$0.49	9mo
Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?	Yes	13.3k	7.5¢	5.5¢	$729	−$267	−$24	3mo
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	800	80.3¢	90.5¢	$724	+$82	+$0.50	24d 22h
Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?	Yes	3,244	19.7¢	20.5¢	$665	+$25	$0	27mo
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?	Yes	3,403	19¢	18.5¢	$630	−$17	+$3.47	39mo
Will CoreWeave announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?	Yes	2,796	23¢	22.5¢	$629	−$14	−$16	39mo
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?	Yes	2,868	20.3¢	21.5¢	$617	+$33	−$11	39mo
Will Missouri enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?	Yes	4,235	15.3¢	14.5¢	$614	−$33	−$7.43	15mo
Will NuScale announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?	Yes	2,831	19¢	19.5¢	$552	+$14	+$1.45	27mo
Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?	Yes	11.7k	5¢	4.5¢	$525	−$58	−$290	3mo
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	500	83¢	84.5¢	$423	+$7.50	+$527	3mo
Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027?	Yes	3,665	13.5¢	11.5¢	$422	−$72	−$58	9mo
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)	No	510	32.9¢	82.5¢	$421	+$253	+$380	20d 22h
Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?	No	553	73¢	74.5¢	$412	+$8.29	+$14	27mo
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	960	53¢	42.5¢	$408	−$101	+$45	3mo
Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?	Yes	410	79.5¢	81.5¢	$334	+$8.25	$0	24d 22h
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	1,792	18.5¢	14.5¢	$260	−$71	+$163	3mo
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	295	82.1¢	87.5¢	$258	+$16	+$49	3mo
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?	No	265	70.4¢	95¢	$252	+$65	+$6.09	3mo
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	400	65¢	62.5¢	$250	−$10	$0	24d 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	Yes	19.0k	5¢	1.3¢	$247	−$711	+$206	21d 22h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	800	26.6¢	26.5¢	$212	−$1.00	$0	20d 22h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	1,000	7.8¢	18¢	$180	+$101	+$79	25mo
Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?	Yes	1,000	18¢	17.5¢	$175	−$5.00	+$55	15mo
Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026?	No	200	78¢	83.5¢	$167	+$11	$0	3mo
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	3,600	4¢	4.6¢	$164	+$19	$0	25mo
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?	No	200	69.6¢	81.5¢	$163	+$24	+$307	3mo
Will Missouri enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027?	Yes	1,403	15.8¢	11.5¢	$161	−$61	−$184	9mo
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?	Yes	327	42.1¢	39.5¢	$129	−$8.49	$0	9mo
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	5,005	3.6¢	2.5¢	$123	−$60	+$1.00	6mo
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	Yes	1,616	7¢	7.5¢	$121	+$8.08	−$45	15mo
Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	271	44.9¢	39.5¢	$107	−$15	$0	9mo
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	105	70.4¢	77.5¢	$81	+$7.47	+$1,044	3mo
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?	No	89	71¢	77¢	$68	+$5.33	$0	4mo
Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 31?	Yes	1,244	9.6¢	4.5¢	$56	−$64	+$2.00	21d 22h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	50	70.7¢	95¢	$48	+$12	+$361	21d 22h
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?	Yes	200	20¢	22.5¢	$45	+$5.00	$0	24d 22h
Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?	No	200	20¢	22.5¢	$45	+$5.00	$0	24d 22h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	330	4.6¢	13.2¢	$43	+$28	+$17	25mo
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31?	No	55	76¢	76.5¢	$42	+$0.28	+$37	3mo
Will NuScale announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?	Yes	129	24¢	24.5¢	$32	+$0.64	$0	39mo
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	Yes	993	6.1¢	2.9¢	$29	−$31	+$20	3mo
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	No	37	41.7¢	52.1¢	$19	+$3.83	+$622	3mo
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?	No	17	84¢	97.4¢	$16	+$2.23	$0	21d 22h
Kash Patel out by December 31?	Yes	64	18.8¢	20¢	$13	+$0.76	−$27	3mo
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	8,500	0.1¢	0.2¢	$13	+$4.25	+$12	6mo
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?	No	13	81¢	96.3¢	$13	+$2.01	$0	3mo
Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026?	No	10	87¢	95.3¢	$9.53	+$0.82	$0	3mo
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	10	78.2¢	91.5¢	$9.15	+$1.32	+$283	21d 22h
Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by October 31?	No	10	51¢	86.5¢	$8.65	+$3.55	$0	21d 22h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?	No	12	61¢	67¢	$7.74	+$0.69	$0	6mo
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?	No	5	80¢	93.5¢	$4.68	+$0.68	+$46	3mo
Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31?	No	12	42¢	33.5¢	$4.10	−$1.04	$0	3mo
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	5	70¢	73.5¢	$3.67	+$0.17	$0	24d 22h
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Yes	3	0¢	46¢	$1.39	+$1.39	$0	21d 22h
Will NuScale announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	Yes	7	9¢	10.5¢	$0.75	+$0.11	+$89	15mo
Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027?	Yes	3	16.1¢	14.5¢	$0.44	−$0.05	−$85	9mo
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	2	37.3¢	11.1¢	$0.26	−$0.63	$0	ended
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	30.0k	0.2¢	0¢	$0	−$75	+$14	ended
EU country blames Russia for new sabotage attack by December 31?	No	6,061	2.4¢	0¢	$0	−$145	$0	3mo
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	4,000	3.8¢	0¢	$0	−$153	+$218	ended
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?	Yes	3,590	9.2¢	0¢	$0	−$330	+$234	ended
EU country blames Russia for new sabotage attack by October 31?	No	3,060	6.8¢	0¢	$0	−$209	$0	21d 22h
Will France win the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament?	Yes	2,282	0.7¢	0¢	$0	−$16	+$0.54	ended
Will Bitget resume withdrawals by September 27, 2026?	Yes	1,457	4.4¢	0¢	$0	−$64	−$43	ended
Trump renames AI by December 31?	No	1,281	3.5¢	0¢	$0	−$45	+$79	3mo
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	1,208	76.4¢	0¢	$0	−$924	$0	ended
Will Uzbekistan win the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament?	No	1,120	49.2¢	0¢	$0	−$551	$0	2d 22h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	1,021	70.4¢	0¢	$0	−$719	$0	ended
Will Ukraine win the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament?	Yes	1,000	0.1¢	0¢	$0	−$1.00	$0	2d 22h
Will United States of America win the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament?	Yes	825	7.1¢	0¢	$0	−$59	$0	2d 22h
Will China win the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament?	Yes	500	10¢	0¢	$0	−$50	$0	2d 22h
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by November 15?	No	500	0.1¢	0¢	$0	−$0.50	$0	36d 22h
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by November 30?	No	500	0.1¢	0¢	$0	−$0.50	$0	51d 22h

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s

Time	Side	Market	Price	Shares	Value	Trader WR	Sharp
4h ago	BUY No	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	6.2¢	737	$46	63%	52
6h ago	BUY No	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	6.5¢	585	$38	63%	52
7h ago	BUY No	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	6¢	640	$38	63%	52
12h ago	BUY No	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	7.1¢	1,000	$71	63%	52
15h ago	BUY Yes	Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?	18¢	1,000	$180	63%	52
15h ago	BUY Yes	Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?	15¢	4,082	$612	63%	52
15h ago	BUY Yes	Will North Carolina enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?	18¢	10.4k	$1,869	63%	52
21h ago	BUY Yes	Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?	20¢	2,340	$468	63%	52
22h ago	BUY No	Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?	73¢	489	$357	63%	52
1d ago	BUY No	Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?	73¢	700	$511	63%	52
1d ago	SELL No	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?	81¢	500	$405	63%	52
1d ago	SELL No	Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?	78¢	310	$242	63%	52
1d ago	SELL No	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	82¢	210	$172	63%	52
1d ago	BUY Yes	Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?	4.4¢	12.3k	$538	63%	52
1d ago	SELL No	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	51.8¢	500	$259	63%	52
1d ago	SELL No	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	90¢	500	$450	63%	52
1d ago	BUY Yes	Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?	14¢	2,707	$379	63%	52
1d ago	BUY No	Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?	86¢	200	$172	63%	52
1d ago	BUY Yes	Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?	13¢	8,253	$1,073	63%	52
1d ago	BUY Yes	Will CoreWeave announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?	18¢	7,881	$1,419	63%	52