sharpside
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Traders/Rank #22,422

OneLastHurrah

0x780…9e91
PoliticsSportOther
Polymarket
PnL all-time−$14.1kvol $973k
PnL 30d−$4,434gains $631 · losses $6,945
PnL 7d−$182win rate 7d 28.1%
Win rate30.4%adj 31.2% · 30d 28.2%
Open value$4,174cash n/a
Positions71 / 665open / all-time
Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak
Account age5molast trade 7h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL−$13.6kbelow peak −$13.6kOct 13

SharpScore inputs

27/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 30.4% · shrunk toward 50%0
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable94
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d99
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? · Noclosed+$148Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · Yesclosed+$113Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30? · Yesclosed+$103Will Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid? · Yesclosed+$75Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Noclosed+$67

Worst markets

Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? · Noclosed−$944Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? · Yesclosed−$599Will Tim O'Hare win the 2026 Tarrant County Judge election? · Yesclosed−$553Will Russell Fry be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? · Yesclosed−$545Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? · Yesclosed−$474

Open positions · 71

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?No98179¢77.5¢$761−$15+$15
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes2,09536¢35.5¢$744−$11+$3.52
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31?No82665¢63.5¢$525−$13−$5.05
Will Jeremiah Smith win the 2026 Heisman Trophy?Yes60460.1¢57.5¢$347−$16−$0.35
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?No21682¢82.5¢$178+$1.05+$6.51
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?No24272¢71.5¢$173−$1.27−$102
Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?Yes18387.1¢87.5¢$160+$0.71$0
Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026?Yes14487¢88.5¢$127+$2.13+$0.69
Will Xiaomi be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?No8983.2¢79.5¢$71−$3.28−$0.05
Will the Republican Party win the MI-04 House seat?No13348.4¢47.5¢$63−$1.17$0
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?No10351.1¢53.5¢$55+$2.50−$111
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?No7571.1¢65.5¢$49−$4.19$0
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?Yes5086¢86.5¢$43+$0.25−$7.83
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship?Yes5086¢86.5¢$43+$0.25−$8.75
Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by December 31, 2027?No5087¢82.5¢$41−$2.25$0
Will the Republican Party win the TX-15 House seat?No5083¢81.5¢$41−$0.75+$0.31
Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?Yes5080¢79.5¢$40−$0.25−$2.34
Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals?No5082¢77.5¢$39−$2.25+$0.50
Will the Democratic Party win the CO-03 House seat?No5073¢72.5¢$36−$0.25+$0.50
Will Choosin' Texas (Ella Langley) win Record of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?No5075¢72.5¢$36−$1.25$0
Will the Democratic Party win the AL-02 House seat?No5073¢71.5¢$36−$0.75$0
Will the Republican Party win the AL-02 House seat?Yes5071¢71¢$36$0$0
Will Gen.G win Worlds 2026?No5069¢69.5¢$35+$0.25−$0.04
Will the Republican Party win the FL-09 House seat?Yes5071¢69.5¢$35−$0.75$0
Will the Republican Party win the MT-01 House seat?Yes5075¢69.5¢$35−$2.75$0
Will the Democratic Party win the WI-01 House seat?No5065¢63.5¢$32−$0.75$0
Will the Democratic Party win the ME-02 House seat?No5062¢62.5¢$31+$0.25−$0.06
Will the Republican Party win the FL-22 House seat?Yes5046¢46.5¢$23+$0.25−$5.83
Will T1 win Worlds 2026?No2782¢80.5¢$22−$0.40$0
Will the Democratic Party win the IA-02 House seat?No5047¢42.5¢$21−$2.25$0
Will the Republican Party win the PA-01 House seat?No5039¢37.5¢$19−$0.75$0
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?Yes5035¢36¢$18+$0.50+$14
Will Bad Bunny be the top artist for 2026?Yes2088¢87.5¢$18−$0.10−$2.24
Will ByteDance be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?No2086¢83.5¢$17−$0.50$0
Will the Republican Party win the TX-23 House seat?No4538¢36.5¢$16−$0.68−$0.05
Will France win 2026-27 Nations League Group A1?Yes2086¢81¢$16−$1.00$0
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?No2075¢75.5¢$15+$0.10−$2.07
Will the Republican Party win the PA-08 House seat?Yes5034¢28.5¢$14−$2.75$0
Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 World Chess Championship?No5034¢26.5¢$13−$3.75$0
Will the Democratic Party win the PA-08 House seat?No3730¢27.5¢$10−$0.92$0
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?No2143¢43.5¢$9.16+$0.11−$36
Will Putin and Zelenskyy not meet by December 31, 2027?Yes883¢82.5¢$6.60−$0.04+$1.00
Will the Republican Party win the SC-01 House seat?No2031¢30.5¢$6.01−$0.10$0
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?No1241¢40.5¢$4.88−$0.06+$5.25
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?Yes1338¢37.5¢$4.88−$0.07$0
Will NuScale announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?No681¢80.5¢$4.83−$0.03$0
Will CoreWeave announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?No683¢80.5¢$4.83−$0.15$0
Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?No682¢80.5¢$4.83−$0.09−$2.94
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes1337¢36.5¢$4.75−$0.07−$3.49
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?No1630¢29.5¢$4.72−$0.08−$5.86
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?No1142¢42.5¢$4.67+$0.06−$0.50
Will CoreWeave announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?No677¢77.5¢$4.65+$0.03−$1.05
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?Yes676¢77.5¢$4.65+$0.09−$0.06
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Yes1143¢41.5¢$4.57−$0.17+$0.46
Will the Republicans win the Oregon governor race in 2026?No677¢75.5¢$4.53−$0.09−$2.43
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?No765¢64.5¢$4.52−$0.04+$47
Will NuScale announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?No676¢74.5¢$4.47−$0.09$0
Will the Republicans win the Kansas governor race in 2026?Yes676¢74.5¢$4.47−$0.09$0
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?No589¢89¢$4.45$0−$0.43
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes673¢73¢$4.39$0−$2.80
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?No588¢87.5¢$4.38−$0.03−$0.01
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseYes765¢61.5¢$4.30−$0.24−$0.80
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?No586¢85.5¢$4.28−$0.03+$26
Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime?Yes1532¢28.5¢$4.28−$0.53−$0.66
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?Yes951¢46.5¢$4.18−$0.41−$19
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-22 House seat?No945¢45.5¢$3.97+$0.04−$4.40
Will the Democratic Party win the MI-07 House seat?No1043¢37.5¢$3.75−$0.55−$0.05
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?No567¢68.5¢$3.42+$0.07−$0.90
Will the Democratic Party win the MT-01 House seat?No570¢68.5¢$3.38−$0.07−$9.39
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No537¢35.5¢$1.78−$0.08−$61
Will the Democratic Party win the MI-10 House seat?No535¢35.5¢$1.77+$0.03$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
SELL NoIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31?63¢826$52030%27
SELL NoPedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?77¢981$75530%27
SELL NoWill Bilibili Gaming win Worlds 2026?82¢1$0.4330%27
SELL NoWill the Democratic Party win the MT-01 House seat?68¢5$3.3630%27
SELL YesWill the Republican Party win the FL-14 House seat?28¢1$0.1630%27
SELL NoWill the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?79¢0$0.3230%27
SELL NoNetanyahu out by end of 2026?59¢0$0.0930%27
SELL YesWill Trump and Putin meet next in China?74¢1$0.4130%27
SELL NoWill the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?69¢1$1.0230%27
SELL NoIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?42¢0$0.1830%27
SELL NoWill no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027?65¢1$0.4530%27
BUY NoWill the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?63¢7$4.4130%27
SELL NoWill Real Madrid win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?83¢1$0.7530%27
SELL YesWill Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?83¢1$0.4630%27
SELL YesWill Barcelona win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?80¢1$0.4530%27
SELL NoWill the Democrats win the Kansas governor race in 2026?75¢1$0.7530%27
SELL NoUS x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?67¢1$0.5730%27
SELL YesWill Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship?87¢0$0.2730%27
SELL NoWill Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?75¢0$0.3230%27
SELL NoWill Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?86¢1$0.7130%27