sharpside
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Polymarket
PnL all-time−$595vol $1.00M
PnL 30d−$2,163gains $8.80 · losses $8.96
PnL 7d+$33win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate56.0%adj 55.8% · 30d 33.3%
Open value$23.1kcash n/a
Positions316 / 1,129open / all-time
Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak
Account age10molast trade 4mo ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL−$302below peak −$1,139Oct 11

SharpScore inputs

27/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 56.0% · shrunk toward 50%39
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d0
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 100

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?No7,36997.1¢98.7¢$7,270+$113+$21
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No5,16590¢97¢$5,007+$359−$424
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?No2,22286.5¢100¢$2,222+$300$0
EU dissolves before 2027?No1,52496.5¢98.9¢$1,506+$36+$27
Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027?No1,03592.2¢94¢$973+$19+$2.31
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?No77797.3¢99¢$769+$13+$1.58
Trump out as President before 2027?No66692.5¢96.3¢$641+$25$0
Xi Jinping out before 2027?No55595.1¢97.2¢$539+$11+$13
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No32295.8¢97.9¢$315+$6.74+$109
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?No22291.5¢98.5¢$219+$15$0
Ebola pandemic in 2026?No22291¢98¢$218+$16$0
Will the Republicans win the Colorado governor race in 2026?No22293.4¢97.4¢$216+$8.88$0
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?No44496.6¢46.8¢$208−$221$0
Will Crystal Palace win the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League Championship?No22289¢93.5¢$208+$9.99$0
Will Trump pardon Ryan Salame before 2027?No23892.4¢87¢$207−$13−$0.06
Will Trump pardon Do Kwon before 2027?No20893¢97.3¢$202+$8.83$0
Zohran Mamdani citizenship revoked before 2027?No19893.5¢99.5¢$197+$12+$2.99
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?No19192¢97.5¢$187+$10+$5.71
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?No19090.4¢95.9¢$182+$10−$13
Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026?No18291¢97.7¢$178+$12+$1.40
Will Spain win the UEFA EURO 2028?No22276.5¢77.5¢$172+$2.22$0
Will the Republicans win the Pennsylvania governor race in 2026?No11490.8¢97.6¢$112+$7.78+$0.51
SBF released from custody in 2026?No11194¢98.7¢$110+$5.22$0
Will the Democrats win the Virginia Senate race in 2026?Yes11190¢98.2¢$109+$9.10+$2.22
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31?No11194¢97.8¢$109+$4.16$0
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to less than 20 years in prison?No11194.4¢91.9¢$102−$2.77+$2.22
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?No10067.3¢97.9¢$98+$31+$1.56
Will France win the UEFA EURO 2028?No11181¢80.5¢$89−$0.56$0
Will the Democrats win the Idaho governor race in 2026?No9096.2¢97.8¢$88+$1.40−$0.08
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 24 or 25 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?No10443.9¢74.5¢$77+$32+$0.12
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027?Yes2,28710¢3¢$69−$160+$265
Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?Yes7491¢79.7¢$59−$8.33$0
Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?No5371¢81.5¢$43+$5.56−$1.72
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Yes8989¢47.5¢$42−$37+$2.67
Over $200B wagered on US sports betting in 2026?No5256¢76.5¢$40+$11+$0.05
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Yes5558¢5.5¢$31−$14$0
Will the Democrats win the New Mexico governor race in 2026?No26419.1¢9.5¢$25−$25−$6.35
US x Denmark Military clash before 2027?No2394¢96.8¢$22+$0.64+$5.32
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?No6022¢31¢$18+$5.37$0
Will the Democrats win the Rhode Island Senate race in 2026?Yes1591¢97.7¢$15+$1.00$0
Will the Democrats win the Hawaii governor race in 2026?Yes1493¢98.4¢$14+$0.77$0
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No3246¢36.5¢$12−$3.04+$1.90
Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?No1197.3¢97.2¢$11−$0.02$0
Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?No1084¢98.9¢$9.50+$1.43+$0.55
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027?No892¢97.2¢$7.76+$0.42−$2.53
Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?No1091¢79¢$7.67−$1.16+$1.01
Will the Republicans win the Alabama governor race in 2026?Yes893.4¢92.4¢$7.56−$0.09$0
Will Borussia Dortmund be the 2026-27 Bundesliga champion?Yes1005¢7.5¢$7.50+$2.50$0
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk before 2027?Yes2223.6¢3.2¢$6.99−$1.00+$93
Will Edmonton Oilers be the 2027 NHL Western Conference Champion?Yes4014¢15¢$5.96+$0.40$0
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027?Yes445¢13.4¢$5.87+$3.67$0
Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?Yes923¢59.5¢$5.38+$3.30$0
Will the Democrats win the Tennessee governor race in 2026?No591¢94.4¢$5.09+$0.18$0
Will Venezuela become 51st state?No596.7¢98¢$5.07+$0.06+$2.82
Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?No1046.8¢46.5¢$4.59−$0.03+$0.83
Metamask FDV above $2B one day after launch?No577¢96.8¢$4.40+$0.90−$14
Anduril IPO before 2027?No448¢97.6¢$3.75+$1.91−$36
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026?Yes1117¢3.3¢$3.66−$4.11$0
Will the Democrats win the Colorado governor race in 2026?No1116.9¢3¢$3.33−$4.33$0
Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?Yes477¢6.5¢$3.07−$0.24$0
Will Vegas Golden Knights be the 2027 NHL Western Conference Champion?Yes2013¢15¢$3.00+$0.40$0
Will the Democrats win the Rhode Island governor race in 2026?Yes394¢97.2¢$2.68+$0.09−$54
Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?No357¢6.5¢$2.30−$0.18$0
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 22 or 23 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?Yes614¢32.5¢$2.01+$1.15+$5.33
Will the Republicans win the Illinois Senate race in 2026?Yes1116¢1.8¢$1.94−$4.72$0
Will the Republicans win the Wyoming Senate race in 2026?No1117¢1.7¢$1.83−$5.94$0
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.5m barrels per day in 2026?Yes147¢12.6¢$1.77+$0.78+$1.02
Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026?Yes260¢88.5¢$1.68+$0.54−$7.77
Will the Republicans win the Colorado Senate race in 2026?Yes1116¢1.5¢$1.61−$5.05$0
Will the Democrats win the New Jersey Senate race in 2026?No1069¢1.5¢$1.58−$7.92+$0.11
5kt meteor strike in 2026?No245.7¢82.5¢$1.51+$0.67+$0.56
Metamask FDV above $3B one day after launch?Yes3713¢3.4¢$1.24−$3.58+$0.40
Will the Republicans win the Oklahoma Senate race in 2026?No425.4¢2.9¢$1.24−$1.04+$1.71
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 40 and 60 years in prison?Yes5514¢1.8¢$0.96−$6.74+$6.14
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League Championship?Yes916¢10.5¢$0.95−$0.50+$1.04
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Yes318¢29.5¢$0.88+$0.34$0
Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?No426¢19.5¢$0.84−$0.28+$0.82
Will Colorado Avalanche be the 2027 NHL Western Conference Champion?Yes420¢20.5¢$0.76+$0.02$0
FDA approves Retatrutide this year?Yes1712¢2.7¢$0.46−$1.61$0
Over $200B wagered on US sports betting in 2026?Yes241¢23.5¢$0.40−$0.30+$0.60
Will the Republicans win the New Mexico governor race in 2026?Yes516¢8¢$0.38−$0.38$0
Celonis IPO before 2027?Yes713.4¢2.9¢$0.19−$0.70+$21
Will the Democrats win the Massachusetts Senate race in 2026?No65¢1.5¢$0.10−$0.23$0
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?Yes393¢2.7¢$0.09−$3.05−$6.80
Will the Republicans win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026?No16¢5.6¢$0.06$0$0
Will the Republicans win the Maryland governor race in 2026?Yes25¢1.6¢$0.03−$0.07$0
Will Albania win the UEFA EURO 2028?Yes441¢0.1¢$0.02−$0.42$0
Will Lithuania win the UEFA EURO 2028?Yes270.1¢0.1¢$0.01−$0.01$0
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Deportivo Alavés end in a draw?Yes1,1118¢0¢$0−$89$0
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026?Yes1,1110.1¢0¢$0−$1.11$0
Maple Leafs vs. SenatorsMaple Leafs1,11136¢0¢$0−$400$0
Timberwolves vs. SpursTimberwolves1,11123¢0¢$0−$256$0
Thunder vs. LakersLakers1,11118¢0¢$0−$200$0
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-11?Yes1,11120¢0¢$0−$222$0
Spread: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (-1.5)Rayo Vallecano de Madrid1,01518¢0¢$0−$183$0
Will the Los Angeles Chargers make the playoffs?No7770.1¢0¢$0−$0.78$0
Games Total: O/U 2.5Over69594¢0¢$0−$653$0
Will the Detroit Lions make the playoffs?Yes63420¢0¢$0−$127−$81
Will Chelsea reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?Yes5557¢0¢$0−$39$0
Will Sporting CP reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?No55585¢0¢$0−$472$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
SELL YesEbola case in the US by June 30?11¢50$5.5156%27
SELL YesWill Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-21?13¢52$6.7256%27
SELL YesAthletic Club vs. CA Osasuna: Both Teams to Score21¢57$1256%27
SELL NoWill Everton FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw?71¢1,111$78956%27
BUY Anna BondarOpen Capfinances Rouen Metropole: Anna Bondar vs Oleksandra Oliynykova84.8¢1,101$93356%27
BUY OverMuchova vs. Mertens: Match O/U 21.599.9¢39$3956%27
BUY MertensSet Handicap: Muchova (-1.5) vs Mertens (+1.5)99.9¢100$10056%27
SELL G2Counter-Strike: G2 vs CarritoSpain (BO1) - Roman Imperium Cup Group D88¢55$4856%27
SELL YesWill Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?80¢145$11656%27
BUY Dinamo MinskKHL: Dinamo Minsk vs. Lokomotiv Yaroslavl58¢0$0.2556%27
BUY TimraaSHL: Timraa vs. Vaexjoe58¢300$17456%27
BUY Amur KhabarovskKHL: Spartak Moscow vs. Amur Khabarovsk34¢61$2156%27
BUY Amur KhabarovskKHL: Spartak Moscow vs. Amur Khabarovsk34¢61$2156%27
BUY HV 71SHL: Djurgaarden vs. HV 7143¢49$2156%27
BUY HV 71SHL: Djurgaarden vs. HV 7143¢57$2456%27
BUY HV 71SHL: Djurgaarden vs. HV 7143¢61$2656%27
BUY YesWill Damac Saudi Club win on 2026-02-26?22¢46$1056%27
BUY Neftekhimik NizhnekamskKHL: CSKA Moscow vs. Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk33¢100$3356%27
BUY Neftekhimik NizhnekamskKHL: CSKA Moscow vs. Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk32¢40$1356%27
BUY YesWill CF Montréal win on 2026-02-21?14¢60$8.4456%27