sharpside
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Traders/Rank #3,273

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Politics
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$566vol $92.6k
PnL 30d−$382gains $1,043 · losses $1,456
PnL 7d+$116win rate 7d 69.0%
Win rate55.2%adj 54.8% · 30d 54.2%
Open value$2,828cash n/a
Positions53 / 317open / all-time
Max drawdown−59.0%of equity peak
Account age4molast trade 2h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$768below peak −$774Oct 9

SharpScore inputs

55/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale39
Adjusted win rateraw 55.2% · shrunk toward 50%37
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable83
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d100
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity41

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? · Yesclosed+$264U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31? · Noclosed+$204US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · Yesclosed+$170Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? · Noclosed+$158Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? · Yesclosed+$121

Worst markets

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? · Noclosed−$232Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? · Yesclosed−$185Israel closes its airspace by September 30? · Noclosed−$183Will Netanyahu use a visual aid during his UNGA speech? · Noclosed−$120Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? · Noclosed−$106

Open positions · 53

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Qatar by December 31, 2026?No33370.2¢81.6¢$272+$38$0
Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027?No29282¢85.5¢$250+$10$0
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No28285¢83.5¢$235−$4.23−$41
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No35467.5¢63.5¢$225−$14$0
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?No26175.1¢71.9¢$187−$8.51$0
Will North Carolina enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?No14681¢82.5¢$121+$2.20$0
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?No20360.9¢58.5¢$119−$4.86−$1.24
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Yes15378¢76.5¢$117−$2.29+$12
Cuban regime falls in 2026?No11186¢90.5¢$101+$5.01$0
Will Missouri enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?No13473¢74.5¢$100+$1.99−$0.57
Will Ishaq Dar attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?No11083.3¢87.5¢$96+$4.58+$0.09
Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by October 31, 2026?No9686¢92¢$89+$5.78$0
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?Yes10972.3¢73.5¢$80+$1.27$0
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?Yes44917¢15.5¢$70−$6.73−$0.33
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?Yes8636¢79.5¢$69+$38$0
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?Yes8077.8¢81¢$65+$2.53−$0.03
Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by December 31?No7668¢82¢$62+$11$0
Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026?No12149.8¢44¢$53−$6.99$0
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?No6176.1¢76.5¢$47+$0.23−$3.22
Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary?No5080¢87.4¢$43+$3.63$0
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?Yes5366.7¢67¢$35+$0.13$0
Will Oborevwori Sheriff Francis Orohwedor win the 2027 Delta State gubernatorial election?Yes3484.2¢81.5¢$28−$0.92−$1.01
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?No4061¢64¢$26+$1.21−$1.97
Will John Brennan be arrested before 2027?No2777.6¢80¢$22+$0.64−$0.09
Will Emmanuel Bwacha win the 2027 Taraba State gubernatorial election?No2675¢81¢$21+$1.58$0
Will Jenny Steen be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Örebro County?Yes3079.9¢68.2¢$20−$3.47$0
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?No4341¢43.5¢$19+$1.06+$47
Will Alex Nuttall win the 2026 Barrie mayoral election?Yes2084¢92.5¢$18+$1.67−$2.02
Will Mikaela Waltersson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Halland?Yes2657¢69¢$18+$3.10+$5.63
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?No2868.3¢59.5¢$16−$2.44−$0.83
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?Yes2998¢5.5¢$16−$7.46$0
Will Steve Martin win the next Devonport mayoral election?No2675¢62¢$16−$3.41$0
Will Karen Harper win the 2026 Saanich mayoral election?No2067¢78.5¢$16+$2.30$0
Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?No1690¢93.5¢$15+$0.56$0
Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?No6345¢22.5¢$14−$14+$0.28
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes8320¢16.5¢$14−$2.89+$28
Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026?No1866.9¢75.5¢$13+$1.52+$5.28
US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?No4134¢32.5¢$13−$0.61$0
Will Peter Olofsson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Västerbotten?Yes1386.2¢95.2¢$13+$1.18+$0.32
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?Yes10421¢10.5¢$11−$11−$0.35
Will Reid Hamer-Jackson win the 2026 Kamloops mayoral election?No1182¢89.5¢$9.60+$0.80$0
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes7155¢13.5¢$9.60−$30$0
Cuban regime falls in 2026?Yes9214¢9.5¢$8.79−$4.16−$1.60
Will Bill Harvey win the next Hobart mayoral election?No981¢89.1¢$8.30+$0.75$0
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes3047¢25.5¢$7.65−$6.45$0
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?No1066¢78.5¢$7.61+$1.21+$0.30
US x Cuba economic deal by December 31, 2026?Yes5644¢11.5¢$6.41−$18$0
Will Eugenio Segura Vázquez win the 2027 Quintana Roo Governor Election?No1253¢19.5¢$2.41−$4.13−$0.56
Will Salihu Danladi win the 2027 Kwara State gubernatorial election?Yes265¢54¢$1.26−$0.26+$0.63
Will Gregory Nthatisi be the next mayor of Mangaung?Yes2049¢6¢$1.17−$8.38$0
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Yes2236¢4.2¢$0.90−$6.92+$0.14
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?Yes1017¢5.5¢$0.53−$1.11$0
Will Eduardo Paes win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?Yes8278.7¢0.2¢$0.16−$65$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
SELL YesWill AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?81¢3$2.0755%55
BUY NoWill Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?75.6¢156$11855%55
BUY NoWill Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?74.4¢105$7855%55
BUY NoUS announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?34¢41$1455%55
BUY YesWill AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?79¢34$2755%55
SELL NoWill Ishaq Dar attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?86¢0$0.1655%55
BUY NoWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?85¢104$8955%55
SELL NoUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?79¢101$7955%55
SELL YesUS-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?17¢244$4155%55
SELL YesUS-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?18¢10$1.8055%55
SELL NoUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?79¢101$7955%55
BUY YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?78¢153$11955%55
SELL NoIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?42.1¢128$5455%55
SELL NoWill Ishaq Dar attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?87¢2$1.6755%55
BUY NoWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?85¢27$2355%55
BUY NoWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?85¢10$8.3555%55
SELL NoWill Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?58¢35$2155%55
SELL NoWill Ishaq Dar attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?87¢1$0.6655%55
BUY NoWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?85¢140$11955%55
SELL NoWill Ohio enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027?86¢141$12255%55