sharpside
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0x8b5…b95d

0x8b5…b95d
PoliticsSportCrypto
Polymarket
PnL all-time−$8,383vol $453k
PnL 30d−$10.7kgains $3,734 · losses $683
PnL 7d−$10.3kwin rate 7d 82.4%
Win rate55.4%adj 55.1% · 30d 80.8%
Open value$17.4kcash n/a
Positions285 / 576open / all-time
Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak
Account age11molast trade 2d ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL−$9,874below peak −$11.4kOct 12

SharpScore inputs

33/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 55.4% · shrunk toward 50%38
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable92
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d91
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 100

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes39.1k36.3¢31.5¢$12.3k−$1,887+$11
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No2,04054.4¢53.7¢$1,095−$14$0
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes6,83512.7¢13.5¢$923+$58$0
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes103k1¢0.5¢$516−$474$0
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes65264¢63.5¢$414−$3.26$0
Will Solana reach $180 by December 31, 2026?Yes3,43211.8¢10.9¢$372−$33$0
Will Solana dip to $80 by December 31, 2026?Yes89627.9¢23.5¢$211−$39$0
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?No30068¢65.5¢$197−$7.50$0
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?No1,01019.8¢16.5¢$167−$33$0
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026No83728.2¢17.5¢$146−$90$0
Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?Yes52421¢27¢$141+$31$0
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?Yes33141.7¢35.5¢$117−$21$0
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes11933.3¢86.1¢$102+$63$0
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Yes16470¢58.5¢$96−$19$0
Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime?Yes33330¢28.5¢$95−$5.00$0
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Yes22245.1¢29¢$64−$36$0
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?Yes22635¢27.5¢$62−$17$0
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Yes35716.8¢16.5¢$59−$1.16$0
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Yes1,16132.4¢5.1¢$59−$318$0
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?No58312¢6.5¢$38−$32$0
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?Yes1,2244.3¢3.1¢$37−$16$0
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?Yes5006¢6.5¢$33+$2.50$0
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?Yes21033.4¢14.5¢$30−$40$0
Will Israel annex any territory by December 31?Yes40114¢7.5¢$30−$26$0
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?Yes11040.9¢17.3¢$19−$26$0
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Yes3453.1¢44.6¢$15−$2.88$0
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Yes2,0000.5¢0.7¢$13+$3.00$0
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes8,6750.6¢0.1¢$8.68−$41$0
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Yes3333¢2.2¢$7.17−$2.83$0
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes4,7071.1¢0.2¢$7.06−$47$0
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?Yes2,0000.5¢0.4¢$7.00−$3.00$0
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?Yes10020¢5.5¢$5.50−$15$0
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes5,0000.1¢0.1¢$5.00$0−$11
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?Yes8324¢3.2¢$2.67−$17$0
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes2,5000.2¢0.1¢$2.50−$2.50$0
Will Israel strike 7 countries in 2026?Yes1333.8¢1.3¢$1.67−$3.33$0
Will Israel strike 8 countries in 2026?Yes1623.1¢1¢$1.54−$3.46$0
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?Yes10017¢1¢$0.95−$16$0
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes5000.4¢0.2¢$0.75−$1.25$0
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes5710.7¢0.1¢$0.57−$3.43$0
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Yes12520¢0.4¢$0.44−$25$0
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Yes14913.4¢0.3¢$0.37−$20$0
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?Yes541¢6.5¢$0.32−$1.68$0
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes2500.4¢0.1¢$0.25−$0.75$0
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 1PM ETDown7,92152.9¢0¢$0−$4,187−$138
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?Yes4,6961¢0¢$0−$48−$2.37
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?Yes4,2560.8¢0¢$0−$32−$1.59
Will Emil Michael be Trump's AI czar?Yes3,1910.3¢0¢$0−$10.00−$0.40
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 12:30PM-12:35PM ETUp2,53450.8¢0¢$0−$1,287−$44
Ethereum Up or Down - October 6, 12PM ETUp2,49137.9¢0¢$0−$944−$40
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?No2,2721.9¢0¢$0−$43−$2.11
Will Solana dip to $90 in August?Yes2,00030¢0¢$0−$600−$29
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Yes1,9841.6¢0¢$0−$32−$1.57
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?No1,89810.9¢0¢$0−$207−$9.01
Solana Up or Down - October 6, 12PM ETUp1,61151.7¢0¢$0−$833−$28
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 1:55PM-2:00PM ETUp1,52939.2¢0¢$0−$600−$26
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 2:05PM-2:10PM ETUp1,24049.3¢0¢$0−$611−$22
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 12:20PM-12:25PM ETUp1,17729.6¢0¢$0−$348−$16
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 12:25PM-12:30PM ETDown92116.2¢0¢$0−$149−$8.73
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes91027.5¢0¢$0−$250+$333
Will Croatia vs. Spain end in a draw?Yes71414¢0¢$0−$100−$4.30
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes71019.4¢0¢$0−$138$0
XRP Up or Down - October 6, 1PM ETDown67753.4¢0¢$0−$361−$12
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8?Yes6593¢0¢$0−$20−$1.36
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?Yes6362.2¢0¢$0−$14−$0.41
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8?No6250.8¢0¢$0−$5.00−$0.35
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw?Yes6194.2¢0¢$0−$26−$0.73
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on October 5?Yes61249¢0¢$0−$300−$7.60
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?Yes6000.5¢0¢$0−$3.00−$0.12
Will Solana dip to $70 in August?Yes5836¢0¢$0−$35−$2.30
Will Trump not announce his AI czar pick by December 31, 2026?Yes5686.6¢0¢$0−$38−$1.40
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:20PM-4:25PM ETDown5586¢0¢$0−$33−$2.07
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?Yes5560.9¢0¢$0−$5.00−$0.25
France vs. Spain: Team to AdvanceFrance51748.7¢0¢$0−$252−$5.70
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers46169¢0¢$0−$318−$4.93
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?No4552.2¢0¢$0−$10.00$0
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 4:30PM-4:35PM ETDown42236.3¢0¢$0−$153−$6.81
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers41748¢0¢$0−$200−$5.20
Counter-Strike: OG vs Sangal (BO3) - Roman Imperium Cup Play-InOG41252.6¢0¢$0−$217−$5.14
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?Yes4000.5¢0¢$0−$2.00−$0.10
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?Yes4000.5¢0¢$0−$2.00−$0.10
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:05PM-4:10PM ETDown3786.3¢0¢$0−$24−$1.28
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9?Yes3697.9¢0¢$0−$29−$1.89
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-11?Yes3485.7¢0¢$0−$20−$0.94
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 25?No3336¢0¢$0−$20$0
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 3:45AM-3:50AM ETUp32051¢0¢$0−$163−$5.59
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on IPO day?Yes3166.3¢0¢$0−$20−$0.75
LoL: Team Liquid vs LYON (BO5) - LCS PlayoffsLYON31435¢0¢$0−$110−$3.57
Will Egypt win on 2026-07-07?Yes3138¢0¢$0−$25−$0.69
Falcons vs. SaintsSaints30253¢0¢$0−$160$0
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?Yes2864.2¢0¢$0−$12−$0.34
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Yes2867¢0¢$0−$20$0
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Yes27311¢0¢$0−$30$0
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 4:25PM-4:30PM ETUp26460.1¢0¢$0−$159−$4.23
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8?Yes25916.2¢0¢$0−$42+$21
Broncos vs. 49ersBroncos25639¢0¢$0−$100$0
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ETUp2502¢0¢$0−$5.00−$0.34
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?Yes2502¢0¢$0−$5.00$0
Will Save the Children win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes2418.3¢0¢$0−$20−$0.92
Will Greece win on 2026-10-04?Yes23821¢0¢$0−$50−$1.98

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY NoWill Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?56.5¢12$7.0055%33
BUY YesWill Solana reach $180 by December 31, 2026?11.8¢3,432$40655%33
BUY YesWill Solana dip to $80 by December 31, 2026?27.9¢896$25055%33
BUY YesUS announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?35¢226$7955%33
BUY YesIsraeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?21¢524$11055%33
BUY YesKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?6¢500$3055%33
BUY YesWill the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?64¢652$41755%33
BUY OGCounter-Strike: OG vs Sangal (BO3) - Roman Imperium Cup Play-In52.6¢412$21755%33
BUY G2 EsportsValorant: 100 Thieves vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Champions Playoffs50.3¢218$11055%33
BUY YesWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?36¢278$10055%33
BUY YesWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?84¢10$8.6655%33
SELL YesWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?15¢56$8.4755%33
BUY YesWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?16¢63$1055%33
SELL Aurora GamingCounter-Strike: FURIA vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage99¢1,040$1,02955%33
BUY YesWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?37¢5,403$1,99955%33
BUY YesUS-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?41.7¢331$13855%33
BUY Aurora GamingCounter-Strike: FURIA vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage29.2¢1,040$30455%33
BUY YesWill Croatia vs. Spain end in a draw?14¢714$10055%33
BUY UpBitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET49¢2$1.0055%33
BUY UpBitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET49¢2$1.0055%33