sharpside
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Traders/Rank #8,031

0x91c…b576

0x91c…b576
WR 70+WR 60+1y+Politics
Polymarket
PnL all-time−$3,863vol $555k
PnL 30d+$132gains $78 · losses $18
PnL 7d+$2.10win rate 7d 75.0%
Win rate73.7%adj 72.8% · 30d 82.6%
Open value$17.6kcash n/a
Positions90 / 628open / all-time
Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak
Account age1.5ylast trade 21h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL−$5,098below peak −$10.1kOct 13

SharpScore inputs

43/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 73.7% · shrunk toward 50%82
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable93
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d97
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 87

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No3,02182.5¢94.5¢$2,855+$361+$104
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?No1,57995.6¢96.7¢$1,527+$17+$63
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseNo1,04586.8¢90.5¢$946+$38+$16
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?Yes89684.3¢96¢$860+$105+$51
Plague pandemic in 2026?No85096.4¢97.8¢$831+$12+$4.12
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No91887.1¢90.5¢$830+$31+$13
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes78887.1¢90.5¢$713+$27+$22
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?No73188.8¢97.4¢$712+$62+$64
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?No66085.6¢90¢$594+$29$0
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026Yes64669.2¢80.5¢$520+$73−$88
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Yes2,96685.2¢14.5¢$430−$2,097−$332
US strike on Cuba by December 31?No41767.3¢89.5¢$374+$93+$102
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?No45080.9¢71.5¢$322−$42$0
Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?No32094.5¢94.5¢$302−$0.10$0
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?No30589.1¢93¢$284+$12+$14
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?No29296.6¢96.7¢$282+$0.21+$4.70
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?No30962.7¢87.5¢$270+$77$0
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No28086.4¢83.5¢$234−$8.16−$2.41
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?No24091.2¢96.2¢$231+$12+$38
Ukraine lowers conscription age by March 31, 2027?No26683.4¢81.5¢$217−$5.09$0
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?No23080.1¢92.5¢$213+$29$0
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?No22086.2¢95.5¢$210+$21$0
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026?No21383.7¢95¢$202+$24+$19
Russia coup attempt in 2026?No20790.6¢96.6¢$200+$12+$2.73
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?No19886.1¢93.5¢$185+$15+$28
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes21084.6¢87.3¢$183+$5.53$0
Saudi troops enter Sanaa by October 31, 2026?No18493.7¢98.1¢$180+$8.08$0
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yes20585.9¢87.6¢$179+$3.30+$2.89
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026?No30081.7¢57.5¢$172−$72$0
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?No20074¢74¢$148$0$0
US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?Yes20271.5¢67¢$135−$9.06$0
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?No15088.3¢89.5¢$134+$1.75$0
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?No15087.7¢87.5¢$131−$0.25$0
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?No14093.3¢93.5¢$131+$0.30$0
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?No15085.1¢85.5¢$128+$0.58+$7.60
Will Houthis target Pakistan by October 31, 2026?No12095¢95.5¢$115+$0.60$0
Will Houthis target Pakistan by December 31, 2026?No12785.7¢88.5¢$112+$3.53$0
Iran leadership change by December 31?No12568.7¢89.5¢$112+$26+$69
Saudi troops enter Sanaa by December 31, 2026?No10084¢93.5¢$94+$9.50$0
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?No10081.8¢91.5¢$92+$9.75+$3.75
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?No10095¢91.5¢$92−$3.50+$1.70
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 40–60%?Yes12563.7¢61.5¢$77−$2.72$0
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Yes12866.1¢59.5¢$76−$8.36+$1.94
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?No20073.5¢36¢$72−$75$0
Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?Yes8092.3¢87.5¢$70−$3.80$0
Ukraine lowers conscription age by December 31, 2026?No6092¢94.5¢$57+$1.50$0
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Yes10060.5¢53.8¢$54−$6.70$0
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes8061.7¢64.5¢$52+$2.20$0
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?No5096.3¢97¢$49+$0.35+$12
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Yes6083¢77.5¢$47−$3.30$0
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026?No4082¢99¢$40+$6.78$0
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?No5078¢72.5¢$36−$2.75$0
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?Yes8045.1¢44.5¢$36−$0.50$0
Will Russia invade another country by December 31, 2027?No4084¢84¢$34$0$0
Will the Democratic Party win the OH-07 House seat?Yes4080¢80.5¢$32+$0.20$0
Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?Yes3096.2¢96¢$29−$0.07$0
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?No3077.7¢95.7¢$29+$5.41+$16
Putin visits US by December 31, 2026?No3090¢91¢$27+$0.30$0
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?No5056¢53.5¢$27−$1.25$0
Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026?No2869.6¢78¢$22+$2.36+$0.32
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 50 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Yes17112.3¢12.5¢$21+$0.36$0
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No3065¢68.5¢$21+$1.05$0
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?No2079¢81¢$16+$0.40$0
Will the Republican Party win the OH-07 House seat?No2080¢80.5¢$16+$0.10$0
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Yes20012.7¢8¢$16−$9.40$0
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?Yes2350.3¢69.5¢$16+$4.40$0
Trump out as President before 2027?No1793¢96.2¢$16+$0.52+$3.57
Will the Republican Party hold between 205 and 209 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Yes706.1¢22¢$15+$11$0
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes5152.1¢2.5¢$13+$1.65+$18
Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?Yes1507.2¢7.2¢$11−$0.02$0
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Yes4027¢24.5¢$9.80−$1.00$0
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes10012.2¢9.2¢$9.15−$3.05$0
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 16, 2026?Yes975¢85¢$8.05+$0.95$0
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes1008.4¢7.9¢$7.85−$0.50$0
Will the Republican Party hold between 195 and 199 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Yes4412¢17.5¢$7.70+$2.42$0
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?Yes7560.5¢10¢$7.50−$38$0
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026?No795¢95.4¢$6.98+$0.03$0
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Yes5012¢13.5¢$6.75+$0.75$0
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?No3035¢20.5¢$6.15−$4.35$0
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?Yes2348.6¢23.7¢$5.45−$5.73+$2.52
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?No589.4¢95.8¢$5.22+$0.35+$138
Will the Republican Party hold between 200 and 204 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Yes408.1¢10.4¢$4.19+$0.91$0
Will the Republican Party hold between 210 and 214 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Yes356.9¢10.2¢$3.55+$1.12$0
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026?Yes475¢78.5¢$3.14+$0.14$0
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes2014.8¢14.8¢$2.95−$0.01$0
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes1025.5¢20.5¢$2.05−$0.50$0
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes323.2¢3.5¢$1.10+$0.08$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY NoPlague case in US by December 31?93¢100$9374%43
BUY NoWill Houthis target Pakistan by December 31, 2026?89¢113$10174%43
BUY NoWill Houthis target Pakistan by December 31, 2026?86¢91$7874%43
BUY NoWill Houthis target Pakistan by December 31, 2026?85¢36$3074%43
BUY NoWill Houthis target Pakistan by October 31, 2026?95¢120$11474%43
BUY NoPlague pandemic in 2026?97.7¢3$2.4474%43
BUY NoPlague pandemic in 2026?97.7¢110$10774%43
BUY YesUS announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?68¢30$2074%43
SELL NoUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?85¢270$22974%43
BUY NoWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?96.8¢100$9774%43
BUY YesWill there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?7.3¢50$3.6574%43
BUY NoWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?96.8¢25$2474%43
BUY NoUkraine lowers conscription age by March 31, 2027?84¢40$3374%43
BUY NoWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?96.7¢5$4.8474%43
BUY NoRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?96.8¢200$19474%43
BUY NoUS announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?74¢200$14874%43
BUY NoWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?96.7¢8$8.1874%43
SELL NoUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?86¢130$11174%43
BUY YesUS announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?67¢29$1974%43
SELL NoUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?96.6¢307$29674%43