sharpside
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RdogTest

0x990…062c
Politics
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$503vol $48.3k
PnL 30d+$1,971gains $60 · losses $0
PnL 7d+$1,439win rate 7d 100.0%
Win rate83.3%adj 57.7% · 30d 100.0%
Open value$20.9kcash n/a
Positions40 / 46open / all-time
Max drawdown−15.7%of equity peak
Account age3molast trade 1h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$1,784below peak $0Oct 14

SharpScore inputs

32/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale39
Adjusted win rateraw 83.3% · shrunk toward 50%44
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable55
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d100
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity84

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? · Yesopen+$693US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? · Noopen+$361US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? · Noopen+$202Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? · Noopen+$167Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31? · Noopen+$127

Worst markets

Trump renames AI by September 30? · Noopen−$26Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yesopen−$22Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? · Yesopen−$11Iran full airspace closure by December 31? · Noopen−$7.52Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Noopen−$3.89

Open positions · 37

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Yes3,83662.7¢80.5¢$3,088+$684+$8.82
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?Yes2,78276.8¢77¢$2,142+$4.77$0
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?No2,14582.4¢88.5¢$1,898+$131−$3.20
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?No3,15154.2¢59.5¢$1,875+$167$0
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?No2,15680.7¢84.5¢$1,822+$82$0
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?No1,05884.6¢98.8¢$1,046+$150+$211
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?No1,31273¢72.5¢$951−$6.88−$0.65
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?No98287.6¢91¢$894+$33$0
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?Yes1,22867.4¢66.5¢$817−$11$0
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes1,23665.3¢63.5¢$785−$22$0
Will there be no Hormuz agreement?Yes79688.7¢90.8¢$722+$17$0
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?No74987.9¢87.6¢$656−$1.98$0
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?No83757.6¢64.5¢$540+$57$0
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?Yes59379.3¢87.5¢$519+$49$0
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?Yes53685.6¢88.5¢$474+$15$0
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Yes67957.7¢58.5¢$397+$5.40$0
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No53263.7¢69.5¢$369+$31−$0.11
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in October?Yes56743.8¢51¢$289+$41$0
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Yes63540.7¢43¢$273+$15+$5.19
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?No27081.8¢81.5¢$220−$0.78$0
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Yes24981.8¢86.5¢$216+$12+$17
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?No22965.3¢65.5¢$150+$0.31$0
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?Yes13588¢98.4¢$132+$14+$19
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?No14274.2¢87.5¢$124+$19+$183
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes15174¢73.5¢$111−$0.75$0
Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?No11689¢90.5¢$105+$1.74$0
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?No13572¢72.5¢$98+$0.68$0
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?No7174¢73.5¢$52−$0.35$0
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes8647.4¢48.1¢$41+$0.58+$0.17
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Yes4473¢72.5¢$32−$0.22$0
Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime?No4272¢71.5¢$30−$0.21$0
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?No3566¢65.5¢$23−$0.18$0
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?No2561¢86.5¢$22+$6.48+$20
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?Yes1766.2¢69.9¢$12+$0.63$0
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?Yes673¢74.5¢$4.48+$0.09$0
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?No393.4¢99.4¢$3.33+$0.20+$17
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes358.5¢86¢$2.48+$0.79+$0.65

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY NoMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?82¢57$4783%32
BUY NoMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?82¢57$4783%32
BUY NoMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?82¢57$4783%32
BUY NoMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?82¢14$1183%32
BUY NoMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?82¢14$1183%32
BUY NoMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?82¢14$1183%32
BUY YesIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?73¢6$4.3983%32
BUY NoMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?81¢19$1583%32
BUY NoMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?81¢19$1583%32
BUY NoMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?81¢19$1583%32
BUY YesWill there be no Hormuz agreement?88.9¢28$2583%32
BUY YesWill there be no Hormuz agreement?88.9¢28$2583%32
BUY YesWill there be no Hormuz agreement?88.9¢28$2583%32
BUY YesWill the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?64¢26$1783%32
BUY YesWill the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?64¢26$1783%32
BUY YesWill the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?64¢26$1783%32
BUY NoPerim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?59¢153$9183%32
BUY NoPerim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?59¢153$9183%32
BUY NoPerim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?59¢153$9183%32
BUY YesUS x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?86¢74$6383%32