sharpside
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Traders/Rank #2,986

almosthere

0xbd2…1a1b
WR 60+<14d old<30d oldSportCultureCryptoPoliticsOther
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$2,598vol $185k
PnL 30d+$6,637gains $16.5k · losses $13.4k
PnL 7d+$4,923win rate 7d 60.8%
Win rate61.7%adj 58.8% · 30d 61.7%
Open value$41.0kcash n/a
Positions159 / 220open / all-time
Max drawdown−2.9%of equity peak
Account age11dlast trade 18m ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$6,748below peak $0Oct 9

SharpScore inputs

58/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale49
Adjusted win rateraw 61.7% · shrunk toward 50%47
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable78
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d100
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity97

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 100

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?No6,28094.2¢95¢$5,966+$51$0
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?No4,49636.2¢74.5¢$3,349+$1,720+$109
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes3,84960.2¢85.7¢$3,297+$981−$249
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?No3,64863.2¢86.5¢$3,156+$851−$373
Will Chow Hang-tung win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?No2,37397.5¢99.2¢$2,353+$40$0
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes3,13759.1¢69.7¢$2,186+$332+$21
Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?No1,64184.5¢88.4¢$1,450+$64$0
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the next Lima mayoral elections?Yes1,54886.4¢91.6¢$1,418+$81−$94
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?No1,38396.9¢99.1¢$1,371+$30$0
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?No1,28896.8¢98.3¢$1,266+$20$0
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in October?Yes4,31730.3¢28.5¢$1,230−$77$0
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Yes3,09046.2¢38.9¢$1,200−$227+$4.84
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October?Yes2,63942.8¢42.5¢$1,122−$9.10$0
Will Mark Carney win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?No1,04397.2¢98.7¢$1,029+$16$0
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in October?Yes1,19242.2¢77.5¢$924+$421$0
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?No83990.1¢88.1¢$739−$16$0
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?No81957.7¢69¢$565+$92−$20
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in October?Yes2,47223.9¢18.5¢$457−$134$0
Will Committee to Protect Journalists win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?No46394.9¢97.5¢$452+$12$0
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October?Yes1,37228.2¢31.5¢$432+$46$0
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in October?Yes3,73611.8¢11.5¢$430−$11$0
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Yes74546.4¢52.7¢$393+$47$0
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?No2,11521¢15.5¢$328−$116+$836
Will XRP reach $1.60 in October?Yes1,00339¢32¢$321−$71$0
Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October?Yes60837.1¢50.5¢$307+$82$0
Will Francis James Allison Oyague win the next Lima mayoral elections?No30694.1¢97.6¢$298+$11−$86
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Yes1,62636.2¢15.5¢$252−$337$0
Will "You Can See Everything" score at least 94 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?Yes28278.6¢88.5¢$249+$28$0
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes57033¢43.6¢$249+$60+$8.11
Will Dogecoin reach $0.10 in October?Yes43262.1¢56.5¢$244−$24$0
Will Sara Al-Saqqa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?No23796.4¢98.4¢$233+$4.77$0
Will "You Can See Everything" score at least 96 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?Yes25463.8¢82.5¢$209+$47$0
Will "You Can See Everything" score at least 92 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?Yes20085.4¢97¢$194+$23$0
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?No21483.6¢86.5¢$185+$6.18−$28
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.38% in October?No26943.9¢64.5¢$174+$55+$3.19
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.41% in October?No19760¢86¢$169+$51$0
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.90% in October?No17282.8¢92¢$158+$16$0
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.55% in October?No17974.9¢86¢$154+$20$0
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.50% in October?No21266¢69.5¢$147+$7.50−$9.61
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Yes5,5912.7¢2.6¢$145−$6.71$0
Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Singapore Grand Prix?Yes21964¢63.5¢$139−$1.15$0
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.35% in October?No25152.3¢55¢$138+$6.67+$8.46
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Singapore Grand Prix?No15485.8¢87.5¢$135+$2.60$0
Will Bitcoin reach $97,500 in October?Yes1,64413.4¢6.5¢$107−$113$0
Will XRP reach $2.20 in October?Yes2,0547.2¢5¢$103−$46$0
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in October?Yes89219¢11.5¢$103−$67$0
Will "The Social Reckoning" score at least 50 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?Yes9495.9¢96.8¢$91+$0.84$0
Will Solana dip to $90 in October?Yes4118.3¢19.5¢$80+$46+$82
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.70% in October?Yes11471¢66.5¢$76−$5.09$0
Will Solana reach $130 in October?Yes31238.9¢23¢$72−$50+$11
Will "Sense and Sensibility" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?Yes18725¢37¢$69+$23$0
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Singapore Grand Prix?Yes36919.5¢18.5¢$68−$3.67$0
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 in October?Yes17757.1¢35¢$62−$39$0
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in October?Yes2,6913.6¢2.3¢$61−$35$0
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.80% in October?No10658.1¢53¢$56−$5.43$0
Will XRP reach $1.80 in October?Yes47325.5¢11.5¢$54−$66$0
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?Yes7560.4¢71¢$53+$7.95$0
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.80% in October?Yes10842¢47¢$51+$5.39$0
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.73% in October?No7076¢68.5¢$48−$5.25$0
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.45% in October?No5257¢82¢$42+$13$0
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in October?Yes44220.5¢9.5¢$42−$48$0
Will "Whalefall" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?Yes5862¢66.5¢$39+$2.61$0
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in October?Yes1,1668.7¢3.2¢$37−$64$0
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Singapore Grand Prix?Yes2,1592.7¢1.7¢$37−$22$0
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.70% in October?No10010.5¢33.5¢$34+$23$0
Will Solana dip to $100 in October?Yes5022.3¢52.5¢$26+$15$0
Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Singapore Grand Prix?No2687¢88¢$23+$0.26$0
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.32% in October?No5138.7¢44.1¢$22+$2.71+$3.42
Will XRP reach $2.00 in October?Yes3149.3¢5.9¢$19−$10$0
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?No1889.3¢96.3¢$17+$1.23$0
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.76% in October?Yes3663¢45¢$16−$6.48$0
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.73% in October?Yes5089¢31.5¢$16−$29$0
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.32% in October?Yes2776¢56¢$15−$5.47−$1.19
Will "The Social Reckoning" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?Yes3946.4¢37¢$14−$3.66$0
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by October 31?Yes8023.1¢1.5¢$12−$13$0
Will "Below: Limited Series" be the top US Netflix show this week?Yes1664¢69.5¢$11+$0.87$0
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Singapore Grand Prix?No1291¢92¢$11+$0.12$0
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.76% in October?No2066¢55¢$11−$2.20$0
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes7841¢1.2¢$9.02+$0.94$0
Will Kimi Antonelli achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Singapore Grand Prix?Yes7323¢12¢$8.71−$7.98$0
Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Singapore Grand Prix?Yes7114¢12¢$8.52−$1.42$0
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Singapore Grand Prix?Yes1555¢55.5¢$8.32+$0.07$0
Will Max Verstappen achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Singapore Grand Prix?Yes5030.9¢16.5¢$8.25−$7.20$0
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 in October?Yes4436.6¢1.9¢$8.19−$21$0
Will "Below: Limited Series" be the top US Netflix show this week?No2640.6¢30.5¢$7.84−$2.59$0
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Singapore Grand Prix?No794.2¢95.1¢$6.69+$0.06$0
Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Singapore Grand Prix?No1059¢58¢$5.83−$0.10$0
Will Isack Hadjar finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Singapore Grand Prix?Yes2416¢22¢$5.24+$1.43$0
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.85% in October?Yes2119¢24.5¢$5.23+$1.17+$15
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Singapore Grand Prix?Yes1729¢29.5¢$4.97+$0.08$0
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in October?Yes864.9¢5.7¢$4.88+$0.68$0
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes1526¢31¢$4.65+$0.75+$30
Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Singapore Grand Prix?Yes1035¢41.5¢$4.34+$0.68$0
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in October?Yes1961.5¢2.2¢$4.30+$1.37$0
Will Isack Hadjar finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Singapore Grand Prix?No574¢77.5¢$3.88+$0.17$0
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.85% in October?No578.4¢75.5¢$3.59−$0.14−$9.54
Will Solana reach $150 in October?Yes6516.3¢5.4¢$3.48−$7.04$0
Will "Street Fighter" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?Yes149¢24.5¢$3.33+$2.11$0
Will "East of Eden" be the top US Netflix show this week?No480¢89¢$3.24+$0.33$0
Will Solana reach $140 in October?Yes3017¢10.5¢$3.15−$1.95$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY YesWill Kimi Antonelli achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Singapore Grand Prix?23¢7$1.6162%58
BUY NoWill Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?95.9¢250$24062%58
BUY YesWill Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?2.7¢88$2.3962%58
BUY YesWill Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?2.7¢150$4.0562%58
BUY YesWill Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?2.7¢77$2.0862%58
BUY YesWill Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?2.7¢113$3.0462%58
BUY YesWill Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?2.7¢160$4.3262%58
BUY NoWill Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?67.1¢7$4.7062%58
BUY NoWill Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?66.5¢6$3.9962%58
BUY NoWill Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?65.9¢6$3.9562%58
BUY YesWill Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October?44¢410$18062%58
BUY NoWill the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?95.4¢100$9562%58
BUY YesWill Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?2.6¢38$0.9862%58
BUY YesWill Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October?43¢563$24262%58
BUY YesWill Ethereum reach $3,000 in October?12¢10$1.2062%58
BUY NoWill the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.32% in October?76¢11$8.3662%58
BUY NoWill the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.35% in October?65¢50$3362%58
BUY YesWill Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?2.7¢150$4.0562%58
BUY NoWill the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.35% in October?65¢50$3362%58
BUY NoWill the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.73% in October?84¢50$4262%58