sharpside
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Traders/Rank #2,245

zthunderfury

0xc68…17bb@zthunderfury
WhalePnL 10k+WR 60+PoliticsCulture
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$24.9kvol $6.07M
PnL 30d+$3,708gains $15.3k · losses $1,186
PnL 7d−$1,659win rate 7d 100.0%
Win rate68.0%adj 67.3% · 30d 75.0%
Open value$267kcash n/a
Positions37 / 531open / all-time
Max drawdown−62.3%of equity peak
Account age11molast trade 20h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$33.3kbelow peak −$2,893Oct 9

SharpScore inputs

63/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale63
Adjusted win rateraw 68.0% · shrunk toward 50%68
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable91
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d97
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity38

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 37

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes34.4k89.1¢90.5¢$31.1k+$479+$353
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No30.8k83.3¢83.5¢$25.7k+$70+$5,289
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No31.3k50¢80.2¢$25.1k+$9,437−$157
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?No26.0k88.9¢90¢$23.4k+$284+$362
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?No21.9k92.7¢94.5¢$20.7k+$402$0
Iran leadership change by December 31?No23.0k86.9¢88.5¢$20.3k+$359+$84
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?No21.8k79.8¢85.5¢$18.6k+$1,241+$8.01
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?No19.7k79.7¢79.5¢$15.7k−$37+$107
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No16.6k92.5¢90.5¢$15.0k−$335$0
GTA 6 launch postponed again?No10.1k81.2¢96.2¢$9,713+$1,514+$1,528
Iran Nuke before 2027?No8,16392.9¢96.3¢$7,861+$281+$132
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?No7,77173.1¢93.5¢$7,266+$1,584+$1,004
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No7,17394.4¢97.7¢$7,005+$234+$614
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes31.3k50¢19.9¢$6,213−$9,437+$200
US strike on Cuba by December 31?No6,43586¢87.5¢$5,631+$98+$338
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Yes9,90649.3¢48.7¢$4,824−$55+$5.64
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?No3,88393.5¢97.8¢$3,796+$166−$6,121
Iran leadership change by October 31?No3,11194¢97.9¢$3,044+$120+$25
Will GameStop acquire eBay?No3,00088¢94.5¢$2,835+$195−$1,011
Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026?Yes2,93088.4¢89.5¢$2,623+$33$0
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?No3,04779.9¢84.5¢$2,574+$139+$617
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Yes2,99172.6¢71.5¢$2,139−$33−$85
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Yes4,47254.5¢40.1¢$1,791−$647+$143
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Yes2,04442.9¢52.3¢$1,068+$192+$3.73
Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by September 30?No1,00087.4¢99.4¢$994+$119$0
Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?Yes80077.5¢91.5¢$732+$112+$13
Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?No30075¢96.7¢$290+$65$0
Stripe IPO before 2027?No26792¢97.6¢$261+$15$0
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?Yes34455¢39.5¢$136−$53−$25
Will the Democrats win the Rhode Island governor race in 2026?Yes9290.1¢97.2¢$90+$6.53$0
Fannie Mae IPO before 2027?No588¢97¢$4.85+$0.45$0
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?No584¢87¢$4.35+$0.15$0
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.4m barrels per day in 2026?No596¢85.5¢$4.28−$0.53$0
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.3m barrels per day in 2026?No585¢84¢$4.20−$0.05$0
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?No570¢71.5¢$3.58+$0.07$0
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?Yes544¢36¢$1.80−$0.40$0
Will a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?Yes20010¢0¢$0−$20$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY YesWill Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?2.4¢4,349$10468%63
SELL NoUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?80¢10$8.0068%63
BUY NoUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?91¢9$8.1968%63
BUY YesWill the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?70¢62$4368%63
BUY NoWill the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?93¢10.0k$9,30068%63
BUY YesWill the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?93¢10.0k$9,30068%63
BUY NoWill the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?93¢10$9.3068%63
BUY NoUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?77¢300$23168%63
BUY NoUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?78¢300$23468%63
BUY NoUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?78¢300$23468%63
BUY NoUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?78¢258$20168%63
BUY NoUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?78¢300$23468%63
BUY NoUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?86¢100$8668%63
BUY NoUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?78¢300$23468%63
BUY NoUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?78¢300$23468%63
BUY YesWill the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?73¢75$5568%63
SELL NoWill Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?99.9¢62.7k$62.6k68%63Whale
BUY YesWill Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?2.5¢2,000$5068%63
BUY NoUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?91¢5$4.5568%63
BUY NoUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?90¢5$4.5068%63