sharpside
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0xcb1…5358
1y+SportPoliticsCulture
Polymarket
PnL all-time−$5,765vol $2.44M
PnL 30d+$183gains $78 · losses $36
PnL 7d−$402win rate 7d 75.0%
Win rate43.2%adj 43.5% · 30d 75.0%
Open value$40.8kcash n/a
Positions261 / 5,836open / all-time
Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak
Account age3.4ylast trade 2mo ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL−$2,033below peak −$13.0kOct 12

SharpScore inputs

21/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 43.2% · shrunk toward 50%9
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d0
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 100

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Andrew Tate released from custody by December 31, 2026?No2,85375.4¢90.5¢$2,582+$430$0
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No2,40075.9¢82.5¢$1,980+$160$0
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?No1,70071.8¢90.5¢$1,539+$318$0
Will Elon register any party before 2027?No1,36775.3¢95.3¢$1,302+$274−$9.23
Will OpenAI announce a ring in 2026?No1,32187.6¢92.5¢$1,222+$64$0
Will GameStop acquire eBay?No1,27883.5¢93.5¢$1,195+$128$0
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?No1,20066¢97¢$1,163+$371+$64
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?No1,20067.7¢96.6¢$1,159+$346$0
GTA 6 launch postponed again?No1,11474.2¢96.3¢$1,072+$246$0
Will Bad Bunny be the top artist for 2026?Yes1,12756.3¢87.5¢$986+$351$0
Reckless Ben in jail by December 31?No1,04084.5¢92.5¢$962+$83$0
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?No95056¢93.5¢$888+$356−$22
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes1,77039.6¢48.4¢$858+$156$0
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes1,19013.1¢71.6¢$852+$696+$78
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?No70088.1¢97.2¢$680+$64$0
Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?No69173.8¢94¢$649+$140$0
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yes71972.8¢87.3¢$628+$104$0
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseNo66481.2¢91.5¢$608+$68$0
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No60055¢94.5¢$567+$237$0
Will Diego Lopes become UFC champion in 2026?No60063.8¢93.5¢$561+$178+$84
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?No60078¢88.5¢$531+$63$0
New pandemic in 2026?No50085.2¢95¢$475+$49$0
Weed rescheduled by December 31?No49054.6¢95.8¢$469+$202−$58
Will Paddy Pimblett become UFC champion in 2026?No49174¢95¢$466+$103$0
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026?No45079¢95.5¢$430+$74$0
US recession by end of 2026?No45075.8¢93.5¢$421+$80$0
Will Gold have the best performance in 2026?No45067¢91.5¢$412+$110$0
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?No40082.8¢99.3¢$397+$66$0
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?No40097.5¢98.7¢$395+$4.56−$21
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?No40082.5¢97.8¢$391+$61$0
Will Donald Trump be the first listed Republican to announce a run for President in 2028?No40093.8¢94.7¢$379+$3.80$0
Will Alexandre Pantoja become UFC champion in 2026?No36751.4¢98.9¢$363+$174$0
Will Sean O'Malley become UFC champion in 2026?No42180.5¢85.4¢$359+$21−$73
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?Yes65123.6¢54.5¢$355+$201$0
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Yes80084.8¢43.5¢$348−$330$0
Will Magomed Ankalaev become UFC champion in 2026?No35868¢93¢$333+$89−$18
Will the US federal government take a stake in OpenAI?No37270¢86.5¢$322+$61$0
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?No32981¢97.2¢$320+$53$0
Taylor Swift pregnant before 2027?No33977.3¢91¢$308+$46−$149
Will Kendrick Lamar release an album in 2026?No45050¢67.5¢$304+$79$0
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?Yes70051.4¢42¢$294−$65$0
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No30086¢97.8¢$293+$35$0
Will Kanye West and Bianca Censori separate in 2026?No30092¢92¢$276$0−$31
Will Ian Machado Garry become UFC champion in 2026?No27870¢96.7¢$269+$74$0
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?No26073.5¢99.5¢$259+$67$0
Anthropic IPO before 2027?Yes35053.6¢73¢$255+$68$0
Will Islam Makhachev be the UFC Welterweight Champion on December 31, 2026?Yes27161.2¢92.1¢$250+$84$0
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?No26595.7¢93.8¢$248−$5.14$0
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?No30033¢82.6¢$248+$149$0
Will OpenAI announce a tablet in 2026?No23580.9¢91.9¢$216+$26$0
Will Islam Makhachev be ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings at the end of 2026?Yes22551.5¢94.5¢$213+$97$0
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes90056.8¢23.5¢$211−$300+$26
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison?No30058¢68¢$204+$30$0
Will Kazakhstan participate in Eurovision 2027?No24982¢80.4¢$200−$4.18$0
Will Bruno Mars be the top artist for 2026?No20393.6¢98.7¢$200+$10$0
Epstein confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?No20094.5¢99.2¢$198+$9.30$0
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?No20094.3¢99¢$198+$9.40−$89
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?No20095¢97.4¢$195+$4.80$0
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No20080.5¢96.8¢$194+$33$0
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?No20086¢96.7¢$193+$21$0
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?No20084.5¢96.5¢$193+$24$0
Will Petr Yan be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026?Yes30636.3¢62.5¢$191+$80$0
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026?No20091.5¢95.3¢$191+$7.50$0
Will Marco Rubio be the first listed Republican to announce a run for President in 2028?No20094¢94.2¢$188+$0.30$0
Will Kamaru Usman become UFC champion in 2026?No18889.3¢97.3¢$183+$15$0
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?No17585.1¢99.9¢$175+$26$0
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No19090¢87¢$165−$5.83−$24
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?Yes80030.9¢20.5¢$164−$83$0
Will Mark Cuban announce a Presidential run before 2027?No15091¢99.2¢$149+$12$0
Will J.D. Vance be the first listed Republican to announce a run for President in 2028?No20094.5¢71.5¢$143−$46$0
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?Anthropic15064.3¢92¢$138+$42$0
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?No15065¢91.5¢$137+$40$0
Will OpenAI announce a watch in 2026?No14576.7¢94.5¢$137+$26$0
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No15080¢91¢$136+$16$0
Will Belgium participate in Eurovision 2027?No44462.8¢30¢$133−$145$0
Will Merab Dvalishvili become UFC champion in 2026?No19458.8¢66.5¢$129+$15$0
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?No13093.8¢94.9¢$123+$1.37$0
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?No15062¢80¢$120+$27$0
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No30067¢37.5¢$113−$89$0
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?Yes1,00027.2¢10.5¢$105−$167$0
Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026?Yes90016¢11.5¢$103−$40$0
OpenAI IPO before 2027?No10755¢96.7¢$103+$44−$21
Sports Prediction Markets taxed as gambling?No10863¢90¢$97+$29$0
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?Yes45047¢21.5¢$97−$115$0
Will Israel participate in Eurovision 2027?Yes10095¢95.3¢$95+$0.30$0
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?No10080¢95.5¢$95+$15$0
Will OpenAI announce a computer (Laptop/Desktop) in 2026?No10092¢94.4¢$94+$2.35$0
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?No10072¢93¢$93+$21$0
Will Movsar Evloev be the UFC Featherweight Champion on December 31, 2026?Yes18821.1¢48.5¢$91+$52$0
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?Yes45039¢20¢$90−$85$0
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?No9091¢99.9¢$90+$7.96$0
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Yes50037¢17.5¢$88−$98$0
Iran leadership change by December 31?No9360.7¢88.5¢$82+$26−$27
Will Albania win Junior Eurovision 2026?No8095¢96.4¢$77+$1.12$0
Will Spain participate in Eurovision 2027?No8065¢96.4¢$77+$25$0
Will Jean Silva be the UFC Featherweight Champion on December 31, 2026?No7589.3¢99.2¢$74+$7.40$0
Will Song Yadong be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026?No7595¢98.3¢$74+$2.44$0
Will Sean O'Malley be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026?No7589¢97.6¢$73+$6.41$0
Will Elon Musk announce a presidential run before 2027?No7594¢97.5¢$73+$2.63$0
Will Ted Cruz be the first listed Republican to announce a run for President in 2028?Yes50036¢14.5¢$72−$107$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY OverSport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Heart of Midlothian FC: O/U 3.553¢25$1343%21
BUY NoWill Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?21¢413$8743%21
BUY NoGianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?72¢13$9.5543%21
BUY NoWill Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by July 31, 2026?98.8¢7$6.5043%21
BUY NoWill Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026?97.1¢300$29243%21
BUY NoWill Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026?97¢93$9043%21
BUY NoWill Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026?96.9¢401$38843%21
BUY NoWill Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026?96.9¢401$38843%21
BUY YesUNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?29¢100$2943%21
BUY NoWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?76¢100$7643%21
BUY YesWill Bad Bunny be the top artist for 2026?75¢101$7643%21
BUY YesWill Bad Bunny be the top artist for 2026?75¢101$7643%21
BUY NoAndrew Tate released from custody by August 31, 2026?95¢601$57143%21
BUY NoAndrew Tate released from custody by July 31, 2026?99.8¢108$10843%21
BUY NoAndrew Tate released from custody by July 31, 2026?99.8¢500$49943%21
BUY YesWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?81.6¢16$1343%21
BUY NoWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?79.7¢200$15943%21
BUY YesWill Austria participate in Eurovision 2027?95¢20$1943%21
BUY NoWill Burgas host Eurovision 2027?90¢402$36243%21
BUY YesWill Sofia host Eurovision 2027?90¢503$45243%21