sharpside
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Traders/Rank #3,684

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0xd21…b5c9@friendlyping
WhaleWR 60+1y+PoliticsSport
Polymarket
PnL all-time−$4,982vol $594M
PnL 30d−$8,196gains $136k · losses $130k
PnL 7d+$338kwin rate 7d 63.2%
Win rate63.2%adj 62.7% · 30d 63.2%
Open value$422kcash n/a
Positions2,000 / 136,366open / all-time
Max drawdown−55.0%of equity peak
Account age2.0ylast trade 19s ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$1.29Mbelow peak −$1.01MOct 9

SharpScore inputs

46/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 63.2% · shrunk toward 50%57
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d100
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity45

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 100

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?No32.3k43.9¢57.5¢$18.6k+$4,394+$12.7k
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Yes28.6k11.3¢52.3¢$15.0k+$11.7k+$23.1k
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?No45.3k33.2¢29.5¢$13.4k−$1,661+$2,333
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?No15.6k68.7¢73.9¢$11.5k+$806+$1,494
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?No10.2k95.1¢96.5¢$9,891+$142+$156
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Yes24.1k12.2¢40.1¢$9,660+$6,733+$16.4k
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Yes25.4k31.5¢29.5¢$7,490−$519+$7,293
Will Fortaleza FC vs. Millonarios FC end in a draw?Yes5,10097.8¢100¢$5,097+$110$0
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship?No5,38093.8¢94.6¢$5,090+$43−$553
Israeli election results in a hung parliament?No5,89967.2¢62.5¢$3,687−$278−$3.74
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?No3,91379.5¢90¢$3,522+$412$0
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series?No4,39280¢76.7¢$3,368−$144+$479
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes33.3k8.3¢7.4¢$2,447−$320+$9,978
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?Yes10.9k25.8¢19.5¢$2,135−$690+$706
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?Yes8,9687.5¢23.5¢$2,112+$1,439+$1,653
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?No2,22294.6¢94.2¢$2,093−$8.86+$244
Will Georgia Bulldogs win the 2027 CFP National Championship?No2,47382.8¢84.2¢$2,081+$32+$627
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series?Yes4,80114.1¢42.5¢$2,041+$1,363+$1,457
Metamask FDV above $3B one day after launch?No2,09295.2¢96.7¢$2,023+$32$0
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?No5,25849.4¢37.5¢$1,972−$628−$829
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-10-08?Yes1,79679¢100¢$1,795+$376$0
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?No40.0k5.4¢4.5¢$1,778−$382+$11.5k
Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?Yes7,71320.5¢22.5¢$1,735+$155$0
Will Golden State Valkyries win the 2026 WNBA Finals?Yes4,38213.9¢39.1¢$1,713+$1,103+$211
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?No2,30076.9¢72.5¢$1,667−$103+$2,922
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes4,56026.8¢36.5¢$1,665+$442+$485
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?No2,13777¢76.5¢$1,635−$9.94+$20
Will Fluminense FC vs. Coritiba FBC end in a draw?No1,39185¢100¢$1,391+$208$0
Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?No1,57883.7¢87.5¢$1,381+$60+$124
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?No8,10519.4¢15.5¢$1,256−$313+$24.4k
SE Palmeiras vs. EC Bahia: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over1,22798¢100¢$1,226+$24$0
Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes8,5581.4¢14.1¢$1,207+$1,086+$78
Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?No1,38887.5¢85.9¢$1,192−$23−$73
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes7,42423.3¢15.1¢$1,121−$608+$401
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Yes36.0k2.1¢3.1¢$1,099+$346+$21.9k
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Yes48.6k4.4¢2.3¢$1,094−$1,061+$25.0k
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes34.8k0.8¢3¢$1,045+$780$0
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia TigersLG Twins1,41774.5¢71.5¢$1,013−$42$0
Will Chicago White Sox win the 2026 American League Championship Series?Yes6,24617.7¢15.8¢$987−$116+$23
Will Atlanta Dream win the 2026 WNBA Finals?Yes2,16211.7¢44.5¢$962+$709+$310
Will the Republican Party win the OH-10 House seat?Yes1,12381.6¢85¢$955+$38$0
Will the Republican Party win the TN-04 House seat?Yes96991.9¢95.9¢$929+$38$0
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?No3,36423.5¢26.5¢$891+$100+$324
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?No2,06628.7¢42.5¢$878+$285+$371
Hanshin Tigers vs. Hiroshima CarpHanshin Tigers89859.4¢97.6¢$876+$342+$0.25
Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?No98388.8¢87.5¢$859−$13$0
Will Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 American League Championship Series?Yes1,37654¢62.1¢$854+$111+$51
Will Fortaleza FC win on 2026-10-08?No83897.4¢100¢$837+$21$0
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseYes9,66912.5¢8.5¢$822−$382+$8,660
Will the Republican Party win the TX-23 House seat?Yes1,33061.2¢61.5¢$818+$3.59−$1.10
Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?No95181.7¢83.5¢$794+$17+$1,477
Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?No91788.7¢86.5¢$793−$20−$106
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Yes3,86320.5¢20.5¢$792−$1.14+$15
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes91885.7¢85.7¢$786−$0.46+$37.8k
Will the Republican Party win the IA-02 House seat?Yes1,67546.9¢45¢$754−$32$0
Will Santiago Abascal be the next Prime Minister of Spain?No73198.8¢98.7¢$721−$0.89−$58
T20 World Cup Asia Sub-Regional Qualifier A: Bahrain vs KuwaitKuwait1,29770.4¢55.5¢$720−$193$0
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?No94764.7¢74.5¢$706+$92+$6,165
Will the Republican Party win the VA-05 House seat?Yes88477.7¢77.5¢$685−$1.44−$54
Counter-Strike: regain vs Iowa Stormboar (BO3) - ESL Challenger League North America Cup #3 PlayoffsIowa Stormboar68160.6¢100¢$681+$268$0
Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?No68699¢99¢$679−$0.24−$15.0k
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Singapore Grand Prix?Yes2,28629¢29.5¢$674+$10$0
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship?Yes80072.5¢80.5¢$644+$64−$85
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?No63799.5¢99.4¢$634−$0.48−$1,289
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?No63798.9¢98.8¢$629−$0.71−$1,807
Will the Republicans win Tarrant County in the Texas Senate race in 2026?No66091.4¢94.8¢$626+$22$0
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?No65096.2¢95.4¢$621−$5.22−$0.85
Will the Democrats win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026?No64093¢93.9¢$601+$6.02$0
Fluminense FC vs. Coritiba FBC: O/U 1.5Over60083¢100¢$600+$102$0
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?No1,24538.7¢48¢$598+$115+$322
Will the Democratic Party win the CO-05 House seat?No79670¢75¢$597+$40$0
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Yes1,39935.2¢42.5¢$595+$103+$336
Will Mykola Kuleba win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes4,0111.4¢14.4¢$578+$521+$2,287
Will the Republican Party win the MO-04 House seat?Yes60293¢95.6¢$576+$16$0
Will Todd Achilles win the Idaho Senate race in 2026?No60493.2¢93.5¢$564+$1.81$0
Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?No61366.9¢92.1¢$564+$154−$266
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?No64985.8¢84.6¢$549−$7.74$0
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.00% before 2027?No58189.2¢93.5¢$544+$25−$7.93
Will Indiana Hoosiers win the 2027 CFP National Championship?Yes6,6333.6¢8.1¢$534+$292+$259
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseNo74573¢71.5¢$533−$11+$536
Will the Democrats win the Tennessee Senate race in 2026?No56495.8¢94.4¢$532−$8.17$0
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?No55993.2¢93.9¢$524+$3.53$0
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12%?No52299.2¢99.3¢$518+$0.27$0
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes8,7181.4¢5.9¢$514+$392$0
Will Rodri finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?No59990.1¢85.5¢$512−$27$0
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?No53880.5¢94¢$506+$72+$228
Will the Republican Party win the GA-12 House seat?Yes57787.1¢86.5¢$499−$3.38$0
Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?No67085.7¢73¢$489−$85+$70
Will the Republican Party win the ND-AL House seat?Yes50596¢96.2¢$486+$0.76$0
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?Yes2,33414¢20.5¢$478+$152+$47
Will MrBeast's next video get between 140 and 150 million views on week 1?No47885.2¢100¢$478+$70$0
Will the Democratic Party win the KS-01 House seat?No50096¢95.5¢$478−$2.50$0
Will MrBeast's next video get between 130 and 140 million views on week 1?No47398.8¢100¢$473+$5.42$0
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No48098.3¢98.5¢$473+$0.84$0
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?No54289.7¢87¢$471−$15$0
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. LG TwinsLG Twins1,81379.1¢25.7¢$465−$970−$64
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-01 House seat?No1,00060¢46¢$460−$140$0
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026?No79647.8¢57.5¢$458+$77+$953
Will Save the Children win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes8,7181.4¢5.3¢$458+$335$0
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?No1,38636.7¢33¢$457−$51−$0.41

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY KingsKings vs. Lakers8¢50$4.0063%46
BUY KingsKings vs. Lakers8.2¢50$4.1063%46
BUY KingsKings vs. Lakers4¢50$2.0063%46
BUY KingsKings vs. Lakers2.6¢50$1.3063%46
BUY YesWill the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?31¢14$4.4963%46
BUY Ugo HumbertShanghai Rolex Masters: Arthur Gea vs Ugo Humbert27¢50$1463%46
BUY OverKings vs. Lakers: O/U 229.55¢50$2.5063%46
BUY YesWill the Democratic Party win the SC-05 House seat?8¢21$1.7163%46
BUY KingsKings vs. Lakers16.8¢50$8.4063%46
BUY MaldivesT20 World Cup Asia Sub-Regional Qualifier B: Maldives vs Singapore24¢113$2763%46
BUY KingsKings vs. Lakers9¢50$4.5063%46
BUY Arthur GeaShanghai Rolex Masters: Arthur Gea vs Ugo Humbert41¢50$2163%46
BUY KingsKings vs. Lakers19¢50$9.5063%46
BUY KingsKings vs. Lakers19¢50$9.5063%46
BUY KingsKings vs. Lakers16¢24$3.8063%46
BUY KingsKings vs. Lakers16¢26$4.2063%46
BUY KingsKings vs. Lakers15¢50$7.5063%46
BUY KingsKings vs. Lakers13¢50$6.5063%46
BUY KingsKings vs. Lakers13¢50$6.5063%46
BUY KingsKings vs. Lakers13¢50$6.5063%46