| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 15.0k | 91¢ | 90.5¢ | $13.6k | −$75 | +$391 | |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 13.2k | 83.3¢ | 85.7¢ | $11.3k | +$321 | +$2,092 | |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | Yes | 12.3k | 62.6¢ | 63.5¢ | $7,815 | +$105 | $0 | |
| Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 50.0k | 11¢ | 10.5¢ | $5,250 | −$250 | −$2,806 | |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 6,666 | 65.8¢ | 64.5¢ | $4,300 | −$88 | $0 | |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? | No | 4,000 | 94¢ | 94.5¢ | $3,780 | +$20 | $0 | |
| Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | No | 4,000 | 85.9¢ | 86.5¢ | $3,460 | +$22 | $0 | |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 4,014 | 63.9¢ | 83.5¢ | $3,351 | +$786 | −$65 | |
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | No | 3,826 | 60.2¢ | 83.5¢ | $3,195 | +$892 | +$240 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | No | 4,000 | 57.4¢ | 63.5¢ | $2,540 | +$245 | +$263 | |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 3,517 | 65.8¢ | 69.5¢ | $2,444 | +$129 | $0 | |
| Will the Democrats win the Maine governor race in 2026? | Yes | 2,105 | 95¢ | 95.3¢ | $2,006 | +$6.48 | +$1.92 | |
| Will Missouri enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028? | No | 2,579 | 75¢ | 74.5¢ | $1,922 | −$13 | +$4.86 | |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 2,000 | 90.2¢ | 90.5¢ | $1,810 | +$6.67 | +$8.33 | |
| Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? | No | 2,664 | 61.7¢ | 65.5¢ | $1,745 | +$102 | −$45 | |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | No | 2,006 | 72.1¢ | 81.5¢ | $1,635 | +$188 | $0 | |
| Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027? | No | 1,984 | 81¢ | 80.5¢ | $1,597 | −$9.92 | $0 | |
| Will the Democratic Party win the PA-01 House seat? | Yes | 4,138 | 34.9¢ | 38.5¢ | $1,593 | +$149 | +$60 | |
| Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain? | Yes | 1,966 | 75.8¢ | 77.5¢ | $1,524 | +$34 | +$6.08 | |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | No | 3,500 | 42.9¢ | 42.1¢ | $1,472 | −$29 | $0 | |
| Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026? | No | 1,941 | 71.2¢ | 75.5¢ | $1,465 | +$84 | $0 | |
| Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 2,316 | 56.9¢ | 61.5¢ | $1,425 | +$107 | $0 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | No | 2,000 | 60.2¢ | 71¢ | $1,420 | +$217 | +$4.09 | |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? | No | 1,904 | 72.2¢ | 73.5¢ | $1,399 | +$25 | −$1.54 | |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 10.0k | 13¢ | 13.5¢ | $1,350 | +$50 | −$16 | |
| Will Inde Navarrette win Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards? | No | 1,567 | 78¢ | 84.5¢ | $1,324 | +$102 | $0 | |
| Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Yes | 1,374 | 74¢ | 96¢ | $1,319 | +$303 | +$1,361 | |
| Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? | Yes | 2,100 | 60.1¢ | 62.5¢ | $1,313 | +$50 | +$16 | |
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | Yes | 3,000 | 44.7¢ | 42.6¢ | $1,277 | −$64 | +$49 | |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31? | No | 1,296 | 82¢ | 94¢ | $1,218 | +$155 | +$15 | |
| Will Mykola Kuleba win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | No | 1,317 | 90.5¢ | 90.5¢ | $1,192 | +$0.59 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | Yes | 2,149 | 47.9¢ | 55.3¢ | $1,189 | +$160 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026? | No | 1,240 | 82¢ | 95.5¢ | $1,184 | +$167 | $0 | |
| Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028? | No | 1,626 | 84¢ | 72.5¢ | $1,179 | −$187 | −$209 | |
| Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? | No | 1,300 | 89.1¢ | 90.5¢ | $1,177 | +$18 | +$266 | |
| Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad? | No | 1,240 | 86.2¢ | 93¢ | $1,153 | +$84 | $0 | |
| Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 2,500 | 39.3¢ | 44.5¢ | $1,113 | +$131 | +$16 | |
| Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? | Yes | 1,473 | 86¢ | 73.5¢ | $1,083 | −$184 | −$34 | |
| Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? | Yes | 1,600 | 63.3¢ | 66.4¢ | $1,062 | +$50 | $0 | |
| Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026? | No | 1,350 | 69.2¢ | 73¢ | $985 | +$51 | +$8.32 | |
| Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting? | No | 1,000 | 97.5¢ | 97.5¢ | $975 | −$0.50 | $0 | |
| Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | Yes | 2,007 | 53.5¢ | 48.5¢ | $974 | −$100 | $0 | |
| Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 1,333 | 60.7¢ | 71.5¢ | $953 | +$143 | −$7.23 | |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | Yes | 1,500 | 65.4¢ | 58.5¢ | $877 | −$103 | +$5.42 | |
| Plague case in US by December 31? | No | 1,000 | 86¢ | 87.5¢ | $875 | +$15 | $0 | |
| Will the Democratic Party win the NM-03 House seat? | Yes | 895 | 89.6¢ | 96.9¢ | $867 | +$66 | +$0.37 | |
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | No | 3,100 | 25¢ | 26.5¢ | $822 | +$48 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? | No | 1,000 | 82¢ | 80.5¢ | $805 | −$15 | $0 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026? | No | 900 | 72¢ | 87.5¢ | $788 | +$140 | $0 | |
| Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election? | No | 1,860 | 29.4¢ | 40.5¢ | $753 | +$207 | $0 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 1,000 | 68.9¢ | 73.5¢ | $735 | +$46 | $0 | |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? | No | 838 | 83.1¢ | 85.5¢ | $716 | +$20 | $0 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 1,000 | 68.9¢ | 71.5¢ | $715 | +$26 | +$11 | |
| Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME Person of the Year 2026? | No | 1,000 | 65¢ | 71.5¢ | $715 | +$65 | $0 | |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? | No | 1,000 | 70¢ | 70.5¢ | $705 | +$5.00 | −$200 | |
| Will STRC hit $100 by December 31? | No | 3,300 | 26.3¢ | 20.5¢ | $676 | −$190 | −$14 | |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | Yes | 1,800 | 46.5¢ | 37.5¢ | $675 | −$162 | +$89 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? | No | 1,500 | 38.9¢ | 44.5¢ | $667 | +$83 | +$17 | |
| Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026? | Yes | 1,382 | 47.7¢ | 47.5¢ | $657 | −$3.09 | −$39 | |
| Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME Person of the Year 2026? | No | 700 | 84¢ | 90¢ | $630 | +$42 | $0 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Yes | 3,200 | 38.3¢ | 19.5¢ | $624 | −$601 | −$262 | |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026? | No | 700 | 60¢ | 88.3¢ | $618 | +$198 | +$12 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? | No | 1,000 | 54¢ | 61.5¢ | $615 | +$75 | $0 | |
| Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by December 31? | No | 748 | 62.8¢ | 82¢ | $613 | +$144 | $0 | |
| Will no listed leader be out before 2027? | No | 1,000 | 60.9¢ | 59.5¢ | $595 | −$14 | $0 | |
| Will Bad Bunny be the #1 searched person on Google this year? | No | 660 | 87¢ | 90¢ | $594 | +$20 | +$17 | |
| Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? | No | 1,200 | 49¢ | 49.5¢ | $594 | +$5.85 | +$10 | |
| Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 1,515 | 36¢ | 38.5¢ | $583 | +$38 | +$33 | |
| Will Hussam Abu Safiya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | No | 600 | 97¢ | 97¢ | $582 | +$0.30 | $0 | |
| Will John Brennan be arrested before 2027? | No | 714 | 72.3¢ | 80.5¢ | $575 | +$59 | +$20 | |
| Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026? | No | 600 | 63.3¢ | 94¢ | $564 | +$184 | $0 | |
| No one announced as next James Bond? | No | 700 | 77.6¢ | 80.6¢ | $564 | +$20 | +$5.20 | |
| Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election? | Yes | 1,427 | 33¢ | 39.5¢ | $564 | +$92 | $0 | |
| Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? | No | 617 | 52.7¢ | 90¢ | $555 | +$230 | $0 | |
| Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? | No | 600 | 92¢ | 92.5¢ | $555 | +$3.00 | +$107 | |
| Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31? | No | 600 | 93.5¢ | 92.5¢ | $555 | −$6.00 | $0 | |
| Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? | No | 598 | 86.5¢ | 90.5¢ | $541 | +$24 | $0 | |
| Will another result occur for the next governing coalition of New Zealand? | No | 593 | 91¢ | 91.1¢ | $541 | +$0.59 | +$0.24 | |
| Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 2,000 | 22¢ | 26.5¢ | $530 | +$90 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? | No | 707 | 63.3¢ | 73.5¢ | $520 | +$72 | $0 | |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%? | No | 586 | 88.7¢ | 86.9¢ | $509 | −$11 | +$33 | |
| Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election? | Yes | 652 | 65.1¢ | 76.8¢ | $501 | +$76 | $0 | |
| Will His & Hers be the #1 searched TV show on Google this year? | No | 532 | 90¢ | 94.2¢ | $501 | +$22 | +$28 | |
| Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026? | No | 650 | 69.2¢ | 76.5¢ | $497 | +$47 | −$15 | |
| Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | No | 800 | 59.5¢ | 61.5¢ | $492 | +$16 | $0 | |
| Will the Democratic Party win the MO-05 House seat? | Yes | 500 | 90.6¢ | 96.5¢ | $482 | +$29 | $0 | |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 3,300 | 21.3¢ | 14.5¢ | $479 | −$225 | −$50 | |
| Will the Republican Party win the MO-04 House seat? | Yes | 500 | 91¢ | 95.5¢ | $478 | +$23 | $0 | |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 60% or higher? | No | 493 | 89.7¢ | 95¢ | $469 | +$26 | +$10 | |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 3,109 | 6.6¢ | 15.1¢ | $468 | +$263 | +$282 | |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher? | Yes | 500 | 90.3¢ | 92.6¢ | $463 | +$12 | $0 | |
| Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%? | Yes | 600 | 81¢ | 76.5¢ | $459 | −$27 | $0 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026? | No | 1,700 | 19.4¢ | 26.3¢ | $447 | +$116 | +$20 | |
| Will PUBG Mobile Win the 2026 Esports Mobile Game of the Year Award? | No | 793 | 64¢ | 55.9¢ | $443 | −$65 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | No | 600 | 66.7¢ | 73.5¢ | $441 | +$41 | $0 | |
| Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31? | No | 600 | 48¢ | 73¢ | $438 | +$150 | $0 | |
| Will Garba Yakubu Lado win the 2027 Katsina State gubernatorial election? | No | 500 | 89¢ | 87.5¢ | $438 | −$7.50 | $0 | |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? | No | 500 | 89¢ | 86.5¢ | $432 | −$12 | $0 | |
| US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31? | No | 473 | 63¢ | 91.2¢ | $431 | +$133 | $0 | |
| Will the Democrats win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026? | Yes | 445 | 96¢ | 95.7¢ | $425 | −$1.49 | +$16 | |