| Will Gemini Argon be released on October 13, 2026? | Yes | 190 | 38.5¢ | 38.6¢ | $73 | +$0.19 | $0 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on October 12? | Yes | 70 | 29¢ | 99.9¢ | $70 | +$50 | $0 | |
| Will "Verity" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m? | Yes | 100 | 17¢ | 63¢ | $63 | +$46 | $0 | |
| Will Lawrence Katz win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026? | Yes | 130 | 14¢ | 37.5¢ | $49 | +$30 | $0 | |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31? | Yes | 100 | 34¢ | 41¢ | $41 | +$7.00 | $0 | |
| Will Wells Fargo (WFC) Q3 provision for credit losses be above $0.65B? | No | 100 | 28¢ | 40¢ | $40 | +$12 | $0 | |
| Will "Other Mommy" score at least 18 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | No | 60 | 30¢ | 62¢ | $37 | +$19 | $0 | |
| Will NYC have between 3 and 4.25 inches of precipitation in October? | Yes | 100 | 23¢ | 36¢ | $36 | +$13 | $0 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on October 12? | Yes | 75 | 35¢ | 47.5¢ | $36 | +$9.38 | $0 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on October 12? | Yes | 76 | 33¢ | 46.5¢ | $35 | +$10 | $0 | |
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 SC-02 House election by 5%-10%? | Yes | 99 | 31.9¢ | 35.5¢ | $35 | +$3.55 | $0 | |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on October 13? | Yes | 95 | 26.8¢ | 35¢ | $33 | +$7.75 | $0 | |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026? | Yes | 100 | 27¢ | 33¢ | $33 | +$6.00 | $0 | |
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 OK-03 House election by 35%-40%? | Yes | 100 | 32¢ | 31.5¢ | $32 | −$0.50 | $0 | |
| Will Saudi airspace be closed by December 31? | Yes | 160 | 23¢ | 19.5¢ | $31 | −$5.60 | $0 | |
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 PA-13 House election by 30%-35%? | Yes | 100 | 33.8¢ | 30.7¢ | $31 | −$3.10 | $0 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on October 11? | Yes | 29 | 29¢ | 100¢ | $29 | +$21 | $0 | |
| Will Noah Wyle be named People's Sexiest Man Alive in 2026? | No | 100 | 32¢ | 29.5¢ | $29 | −$2.49 | $0 | |
| Kimberly Guilfoyle out as U.S. Ambassador to Greece by December 31? | No | 110 | 30¢ | 26.5¢ | $29 | −$3.85 | $0 | |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31? | Yes | 200 | 17¢ | 14.5¢ | $29 | −$5.00 | $0 | |
| Will RTX (RTX) Q3 Pratt & Whitney sales be above $9.5B? | Yes | 100 | 33¢ | 29¢ | $29 | −$4.00 | $0 | |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026? | Yes | 94 | 35¢ | 30.5¢ | $29 | −$4.25 | $0 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on October 12? | Yes | 77 | 45¢ | 37.5¢ | $29 | −$5.74 | $0 | |
| Will The Weeknd have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month? | No | 100 | 21¢ | 27.5¢ | $28 | +$6.50 | $0 | |
| Will Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Q3 Innovative Medicine revenue be above $17.2B? | Yes | 100 | 26¢ | 27¢ | $27 | +$1.00 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of November 2026? | Yes | 100 | 30¢ | 26.5¢ | $27 | −$3.50 | $0 | |
| Will Prologis (PLD) Q3 core FFO per diluted share be above $1.65? | Yes | 100 | 29¢ | 26¢ | $26 | −$3.00 | $0 | |
| Will Microsoft launch a Muse-like personal agent before 2027? | Yes | 80 | 27¢ | 32.5¢ | $26 | +$4.40 | $0 | |
| Will ISM Services PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in October? | Yes | 100 | 27¢ | 25¢ | $25 | −$2.00 | $0 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on October 12? | Yes | 100 | 31¢ | 25¢ | $25 | −$6.00 | $0 | |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MI-03 House election by 10%-15%? | Yes | 100 | 21¢ | 24.5¢ | $25 | +$3.50 | $0 | |
| Will Iran target an Arab country by October 31, 2026? | No | 50 | 20¢ | 47¢ | $24 | +$14 | +$5.60 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on October 11? | Yes | 24 | 29¢ | 100¢ | $24 | +$17 | $0 | |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? | No | 64 | 49¢ | 36¢ | $23 | −$8.34 | $0 | |
| Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31? | Yes | 100 | 27¢ | 22.5¢ | $23 | −$4.50 | $0 | |
| Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027? | Yes | 100 | 25¢ | 22.5¢ | $23 | −$2.50 | $0 | |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 14, 2026? | No | 45 | 46¢ | 49.5¢ | $22 | +$1.58 | $0 | |
| Will GE Aerospace (GE) Q3 adjusted revenue be above $14B? | Yes | 100 | 19¢ | 22¢ | $22 | +$3.00 | $0 | |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MI-03 House election by 10%-15%? | No | 29 | 76¢ | 75.5¢ | $22 | −$0.14 | $0 | |
| Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 55% or higher? | Yes | 100 | 25¢ | 21.5¢ | $22 | −$3.50 | $0 | |
| Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above? | No | 100 | 19¢ | 21.5¢ | $22 | +$2.50 | $0 | |
| Will Moonshot be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 100 | 25¢ | 21¢ | $21 | −$4.00 | $0 | |
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 KS-01 House election by 30%-35%? | Yes | 100 | 20¢ | 20.1¢ | $20 | +$0.10 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI not announce that it has resumed training by October 20, 2026? | No | 100 | 22¢ | 19.5¢ | $20 | −$2.50 | $0 | |
| US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31? | No | 100 | 25¢ | 19.5¢ | $20 | −$5.50 | $0 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on October 12? | Yes | 19 | 29¢ | 100¢ | $19 | +$14 | $0 | |
| Will there be 12 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide? | Yes | 20 | 46.6¢ | 97.1¢ | $19 | +$10 | $0 | |
| Will it rain in Los Angeles, CA on October 11? | No | 39 | 24¢ | 49.5¢ | $19 | +$9.95 | $0 | |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher? | Yes | 50 | 36¢ | 37.5¢ | $19 | +$0.75 | $0 | |
| Will Pablo Picasso be #1 in global fine art auction turnover for 2026? | No | 100 | 28¢ | 18.5¢ | $19 | −$9.50 | $0 | |
| Will JP Morgan (JPM) Q3 investment banking fees be above $3.35B? | Yes | 100 | 26¢ | 18¢ | $18 | −$8.00 | $0 | |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 16, 2026? | No | 54 | 46.3¢ | 33¢ | $18 | −$7.24 | $0 | |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 23, 2026? | No | 100 | 20¢ | 17.5¢ | $18 | −$2.50 | +$19 | |
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 FL-13 House election by 6%-9%? | Yes | 100 | 23.7¢ | 17.5¢ | $18 | −$6.20 | $0 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on October 13? | No | 20 | 70¢ | 87¢ | $17 | +$3.40 | $0 | |
| Will "Whalefall" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m? | No | 50 | 44¢ | 34.5¢ | $17 | −$4.75 | $0 | |
| Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30? | No | 50 | 38¢ | 34¢ | $17 | −$2.00 | $0 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 22°C on October 13? | Yes | 40 | 36¢ | 42¢ | $17 | +$2.40 | $0 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on October 12? | Yes | 17 | 32¢ | 99.8¢ | $17 | +$11 | $0 | |
| Kimberly Guilfoyle out as U.S. Ambassador to Greece by October 31? | Yes | 30 | 26¢ | 54.5¢ | $16 | +$8.52 | $0 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on October 12? | No | 20 | 45¢ | 80¢ | $16 | +$7.00 | $0 | |
| Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on October 11? | Yes | 16 | 24¢ | 100¢ | $16 | +$12 | $0 | |
| Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on October 13? | Yes | 60 | 29¢ | 25.5¢ | $15 | −$2.10 | $0 | |
| Will Elon Musk post 1000+ tweets in October 2026? | No | 100 | 17¢ | 15¢ | $15 | −$2.00 | $0 | |
| Will Seattle have between 2.5 and 3 inches of precipitation in October? | Yes | 100 | 21¢ | 15¢ | $15 | −$6.00 | $0 | |
| Will the median home value in the US be less than $403,000 on December 31? | Yes | 100 | 19¢ | 15¢ | $15 | −$4.00 | $0 | |
| Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 50% or higher? | No | 100 | 22¢ | 14.5¢ | $15 | −$7.50 | $0 | |
| Will the median home value in the DC Metro be between $503,000 and $507,000 on December 31? | Yes | 100 | 26¢ | 14.5¢ | $14 | −$11 | $0 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on October 12? | Yes | 42 | 33¢ | 33.5¢ | $14 | +$0.21 | $0 | |
| Will GE Aerospace (GE) Q3 adjusted revenue be above $12.8B? | No | 100 | 27¢ | 14¢ | $14 | −$13 | $0 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on October 12? | Yes | 14 | 28¢ | 99.2¢ | $14 | +$9.97 | $0 | |
| Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026? | No | 100 | 26¢ | 13.5¢ | $14 | −$13 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of November 2026? | Yes | 100 | 16¢ | 13.5¢ | $14 | −$2.50 | $0 | |
| Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.50% and 5.99%? | Yes | 100 | 17.9¢ | 13.5¢ | $13 | −$4.45 | $0 | |
| Will Hong Kong have between 120-210mm of precipitation in October? | Yes | 100 | 17.8¢ | 13.1¢ | $13 | −$4.75 | +$24 | |
| Will Houthis target Syria by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 100 | 24¢ | 13¢ | $13 | −$11 | +$4.80 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on October 12? | Yes | 55 | 30¢ | 23¢ | $13 | −$3.85 | $0 | |
| Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1420 by June 30, 2027? | No | 100 | 26¢ | 12.5¢ | $13 | −$14 | +$26 | |
| Will White House post 180-199 posts from October 9 to October 16, 2026? | Yes | 100 | 24.8¢ | 12.2¢ | $12 | −$13 | $0 | |
| Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision? | No | 100 | 19¢ | 12¢ | $12 | −$7.00 | +$15 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on October 12? | Yes | 100 | 27¢ | 12¢ | $12 | −$15 | $0 | |
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 UT-03 House election by 25%-30%? | Yes | 50 | 25¢ | 23.5¢ | $12 | −$0.75 | $0 | |
| Eritrea invades Ethiopia by October 31? | Yes | 61 | 17¢ | 19¢ | $12 | +$1.21 | $0 | |
| Another Frontier Math Problem Solved by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 20 | 40¢ | 57.5¢ | $12 | +$3.50 | $0 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on October 13? | Yes | 60 | 19¢ | 19¢ | $11 | $0 | $0 | |
| Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 68% to 69%? | Yes | 44 | 23¢ | 25.5¢ | $11 | +$1.11 | +$2.35 | |
| Will MegaETH hit $0.10 by June 30, 2027? | Yes | 35 | 21¢ | 31.5¢ | $11 | +$3.67 | $0 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on October 13? | Yes | 60 | 24¢ | 18¢ | $11 | −$3.60 | $0 | |
| Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by June 30, 2027? | Yes | 100 | 17¢ | 10.5¢ | $11 | −$6.50 | $0 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Denver be 61°F or below on October 13? | Yes | 60 | 27¢ | 17.5¢ | $11 | −$5.70 | $0 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on October 12? | No | 19 | 64¢ | 53.5¢ | $9.90 | −$1.94 | $0 | |
| Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026? | No | 100 | 12.2¢ | 9.9¢ | $9.85 | −$2.35 | $0 | |
| Situational Awareness raises new capital by October 31? | Yes | 100 | 18¢ | 9.5¢ | $9.50 | −$8.50 | $0 | |
| Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Israeli Minister of Justice? | Yes | 100 | 16¢ | 9.5¢ | $9.48 | −$6.48 | $0 | |
| Will Canada’s 2026 inflation be between 2.5% and 2.9%? | Yes | 50 | 23.3¢ | 18.2¢ | $9.07 | −$2.58 | $0 | |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CO-08 House election by 6%-9%? | Yes | 50 | 24¢ | 18¢ | $9.00 | −$3.00 | $0 | |
| Will RTX (RTX) Q3 Pratt & Whitney sales be above $10B? | Yes | 100 | 17¢ | 9¢ | $9.00 | −$8.00 | $0 | |
| Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on October 12? | Yes | 20 | 28¢ | 45.5¢ | $8.90 | +$3.42 | $0 | |
| Next Alibaba Qwen Plus (3.8+) released by December 31, 2026? | No | 20 | 30¢ | 44¢ | $8.80 | +$2.80 | $0 | |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MI-11 House election by 20%-25%? | Yes | 50 | 23¢ | 17.5¢ | $8.75 | −$2.75 | $0 | |