sharpside
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Traders/Rank #15,493

ChairmanFed

0x836…f584
WR 80+WR 70+WR 60+Sport
Polymarket
PnL all-time−$38.2kvol $530k
PnL 30d−$5,142gains $11.8k · losses $28.3k
PnL 7d+$3.98win rate 7d 89.9%
Win rate92.3%adj 90.2% · 30d 92.5%
Open value$8,631cash n/a
Positions647 / 1,035open / all-time
Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak
Account age2molast trade 13h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL−$35.9kbelow peak −$36.7kOct 13

SharpScore inputs

42/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 92.3% · shrunk toward 50%100
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d98
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 100

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?No3,10678.8¢80.5¢$2,500+$52$0
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-09-16?No2,18558.9¢55.5¢$1,213−$74$0
Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch?No46090¢88¢$405−$9.20$0
Exact Score: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 2 - 0 Athletic Club?Yes6926¢50.1¢$346+$305$0
Levante UD vs. Athletic Club: Both Teams to ScoreNo74547.5¢45¢$335−$18+$0.10
Will Hanwha Life Esports win Worlds 2026?Yes1,84017.2¢15.5¢$285−$31$0
Exact Score: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 0 - 4 Athletic Club?Yes5151¢50.1¢$258+$253$0
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-01 House seat?No27781.6¢84.5¢$234+$8.16$0
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?No77833.4¢30¢$234−$26$0
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Yes42842.3¢41.5¢$178−$3.47$0
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Yes27661.3¢62.7¢$173+$3.87$0
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series?Yes92720.7¢17.7¢$164−$28$0
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series?Yes66331.4¢21.5¢$143−$66$0
Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?No1,58214.7¢8¢$127−$106$0
Will Hylo launch a token by December 31, 2026?No14488¢84.5¢$121−$5.02$0
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?Yes25020.9¢46.6¢$116+$64$0
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?No12563¢87.5¢$109+$31$0
Spread: Athletic Club (-1.5)Levante UD12781¢78.2¢$100−$3.57$0
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2026?Yes13469¢68.5¢$92−$0.67$0
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?No29730¢29.5¢$88−$1.48$0
Levante UD vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5Over17949¢47.5¢$85−$2.69$0
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Yes2,8402.7¢2.9¢$81+$4.26$0
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?Yes2,0603.7¢3.9¢$80+$4.04$0
Will Al Sadd SC win on 2026-10-13?No7682¢82¢$62$0$0
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?No20930.6¢29.5¢$62−$2.44$0
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Yes19628.7¢30.7¢$60+$3.72$0
GTA 6 launch postponed again?Yes1,4884.3¢4¢$59−$4.59$0
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-10-16?Yes6385¢86¢$54+$0.63$0
Exact Score: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 2 - 1 Athletic Club?Yes1049¢49.5¢$51+$42$0
Levante UD vs. Athletic Club: O/U 1.5Under19526.7¢26¢$51−$1.32$0
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026?Yes57310.6¢8.5¢$49−$12$0
Will Los Angeles Rams win the 2026 NFC West?No5374¢75¢$40+$0.53$0
Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch?Yes33112¢12¢$40$0$0
Will MGM Resorts be acquired before 2027?Yes4617¢7.5¢$35+$2.52$0
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?Yes15524¢21¢$33−$4.66$0
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?No16216¢19.5¢$32+$5.69+$27
Will FC Cincinnati vs. D.C. United SC end in a draw?No3983.2¢79.5¢$31−$1.45$0
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?No7935.7¢37.3¢$30+$1.21$0
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseNo3293¢90.5¢$29−$0.80$0
Anthropic IPO before 2027?No10226.9¢28¢$29+$1.12$0
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on October 13?No5147¢51¢$26+$2.04$0
Will Hibachi launch a token by December 31, 2026?Yes4048¢64.5¢$26+$6.57$0
Wuhan Tennis Open: Lilli Tagger vs Nikola BartunkovaNikola Bartunkova3769¢69.5¢$26+$0.18$0
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on October 12?Yes2249¢100¢$22+$11$0
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series?No2597.4¢85.4¢$21−$3.01$0
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on October 13?No3773.9¢54.5¢$20−$7.16$0
Reya FDV above $300M one day after launch?No2386.6¢88.3¢$20+$0.39$0
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on October 12?Yes1955.7¢100¢$19+$8.59$0
Will Pacifica launch a token by December 31 2026?No2278¢84¢$18+$1.29$0
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series?No2078.1¢82.4¢$16+$0.85$0
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?Yes6023¢22.5¢$14−$0.30$0
Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?Yes3142.4¢3.7¢$12+$4.19$0
Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?Yes1293¢91.5¢$11−$0.18$0
Exact Score: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 1 - 1 Athletic Club?Yes4314¢25¢$11+$4.73$0
Exact Score: Real Betis Seville 0 - 1 AD Ceuta?No1097.7¢97.5¢$9.75−$0.02$0
Levante UD vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5Under1860¢52.5¢$9.61−$1.37$0
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in December 2026 (ET)?No1172.8¢85.2¢$9.04+$1.31$0
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?Yes4421¢20.5¢$9.02−$0.22$0
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes1057.7¢86.9¢$8.69+$2.92$0
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Yes6910.8¢1.2¢$8.29+$2.90$0
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Yes2052.2¢3.2¢$6.56+$2.05$0
Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?Yes967¢69.5¢$6.25+$0.23$0
Reya FDV above $150M one day after launch?Yes3327.2¢18.5¢$6.14−$2.88$0
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?Yes3401.9¢1.8¢$6.12−$0.34$0
Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first?$1,0002319¢26.5¢$6.11+$1.74$0
Athletic Club leading at halftime?No885¢66.5¢$5.19−$1.44$0
Exact Score: Galatasaray SK 0 - 3 FC Barcelona?Yes777¢6.5¢$5.00−$0.38$0
Arsenal FC leading at halftime?Yes859¢59.5¢$4.72+$0.04$0
Will Levante UD win on 2026-09-16?No680.2¢75¢$4.55−$0.31$0
Exact Score: Real Betis Seville 1 - 0 AD Ceuta?No593¢87.5¢$4.38−$0.28$0
Will Invictus Gaming win Worlds 2026?Yes1642.7¢2.5¢$4.01−$0.47$0
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?Yes1924¢21¢$3.88−$0.56$0
Games Total: O/U 3.5Over574¢71.5¢$3.58−$0.13$0
Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2027?Yes665¢57.5¢$3.54−$0.46$0
Will Revolut launch a USD stablecoin in 2026?Yes1124.5¢29¢$3.33+$0.52$0
Will Gen.G win Worlds 2026?Yes1032¢30.5¢$3.05−$0.15$0
Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Yes4001.1¢0.8¢$3.00−$1.40$0
Spread: Levante UD (-1.5)Levante UD3334.8¢8.5¢$2.78−$8.60$0
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes1026¢26.5¢$2.65+$0.05$0
Will T1 win Worlds 2026?Yes1316¢18.5¢$2.31+$0.31$0
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 8.5 Total CornersOver570¢44.5¢$2.23−$1.27$0
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?Yes691.7¢2.7¢$1.82+$0.65$0
Pacers vs. ThunderPacers530¢31.5¢$1.61+$0.08$0
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% before 2027?Yes217¢6.8¢$1.44−$0.04$0
Will Levante UD win on 2026-09-16?Yes523¢25¢$1.30+$0.10$0
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.0% or higher before 2027?Yes413.2¢3.2¢$1.30−$0.02$0
Noble FDV above $300M one day after launch?Yes1013¢12.5¢$1.25−$0.05$0
Exact Score: RB Leipzig 3 - 0 PSV?Yes254.8¢4.7¢$1.16−$0.04$0
Exact Score: Villarreal CF 2 - 3 SSC Napoli?Yes403.1¢2.8¢$1.12−$0.12$0
Will Bilibili Gaming win Worlds 2026?Yes618¢18¢$1.08$0$0
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?Yes432.4¢2.2¢$0.94−$0.08$0
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes751.4¢0.7¢$0.49−$0.56$0
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on October 13?Yes1145.2¢0.4¢$0.46−$5.48$0
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?No619¢6.5¢$0.38−$0.72$0
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Yes1250.8¢0.3¢$0.31−$0.69$0
Will IK Sirius win on 2026-10-11?Yes3410.4¢0.5¢$0.17−$3.40$0
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on October 12?Yes2115¢0.1¢$0.01−$3.20$0
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Yes63.5k0.2¢0¢$0−$120+$2,693
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Yes55.7k28.2¢0¢$0−$15.7k+$3,475
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Yes36.7k0.8¢0¢$0−$311+$1,693

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY YesExact Score: Levante UD 2 - 4 Sevilla FC?0.8¢136$1.0492%42
BUY YesExact Score: Torino FC 3 - 4 Udinese Calcio?0.7¢250$1.7592%42
BUY YesExact Score: Levante UD 0 - 1 Sevilla FC?11¢339$3792%42
BUY OverThunder vs. Hawks: O/U 218.564¢15$9.4992%42
BUY YesExact Score: Coventry City FC 1 - 4 Newcastle United FC?2.4¢138$3.3092%42
BUY Nikola BartunkovaWuhan Tennis Open: Lilli Tagger vs Nikola Bartunkova69¢35$2492%42
BUY OverGames Total: O/U 3.574¢5$3.7092%42
BUY YesExact Score: Torino FC 1 - 3 Udinese Calcio?2.6¢40$1.0492%42
BUY YesExact Score: Levante UD 3 - 0 Sevilla FC?2.3¢50$1.1592%42
BUY YesExact Score: Levante UD 3 - 0 Sevilla FC?2.3¢60$1.3892%42
BUY YesExact Score: Atalanta BC 3 - 2 Venezia FC?4.1¢30$1.2392%42
BUY YesExact Score: Atalanta BC 3 - 2 Venezia FC?4.1¢30$1.2392%42
BUY YesExact Score: Coventry City FC 1 - 3 Newcastle United FC?5.3¢20$1.0692%42
BUY YesExact Score: Atalanta BC 3 - 2 Venezia FC?4.1¢100$4.1092%42
BUY YesExact Score: Atalanta BC 1 - 0 Venezia FC?9¢21$1.8992%42
BUY YesExact Score: Atalanta BC 3 - 2 Venezia FC?4.1¢30$1.2392%42
BUY YesWill Gen.G win Worlds 2026?31¢5$1.5592%42
BUY YesExact Score: Atalanta BC 3 - 2 Venezia FC?4.1¢170$6.9792%42
BUY OverAtalanta BC vs. Venezia FC: O/U 8.50.8¢130$1.0892%42
BUY YesExact Score: Atalanta BC 0 - 0 Venezia FC?4¢25$1.0092%42