sharpside
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Traders/Rank #7,240

regregr

0xcbe…b059
WR 80+WR 70+WR 60+PoliticsOtherSport
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$581vol $17.6k
PnL 30d+$673gains $773 · losses $7.02
PnL 7d+$505win rate 7d 100.0%
Win rate85.2%adj 75.7% · 30d 90.2%
Open value$4,312cash n/a
Positions55 / 109open / all-time
Max drawdown−17.7%of equity peak
Account age43dlast trade 19h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$712below peak $0Oct 13

SharpScore inputs

61/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale39
Adjusted win rateraw 85.2% · shrunk toward 50%89
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable68
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d97
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity82

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · Noclosed+$328Counter-Strike: Alliance vs magic (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group B · Allianceclosed+$152Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Noclosed+$126Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · Yesclosed+$115US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? · Noopen+$64

Worst markets

Trump renames AI by September 30? · Noopen−$150LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch? · Noclosed−$90Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yesopen−$32US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? · Noopen−$29Trump renames AI by October 31? · Noopen−$19

Open positions · 55

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?No63887.6¢97.6¢$623+$64+$0.46
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No82869.6¢68.5¢$567−$9.06−$0.05
Iran leadership change by December 31?No46589¢88.5¢$411−$2.37−$1.54
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 15?Yes31195¢99.2¢$308+$13$0
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?No30996.3¢97.5¢$302+$3.50$0
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No31185¢83.5¢$259−$4.66$0
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No28565¢64.5¢$184−$1.42$0
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Yes18086¢80.5¢$145−$9.90$0
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?No16976.2¢84.5¢$143+$14+$0.47
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?No14497.4¢97.4¢$140−$0.14$0
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?No14873¢85.5¢$127+$19$0
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?No15270.2¢75.5¢$115+$7.97$0
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in October?No11897.3¢96.8¢$114−$0.62$0
Will Harry Kane finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Yes10397.8¢97.1¢$100−$0.77$0
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Yes16041.4¢53.7¢$86+$20$0
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Yes23244.4¢30.8¢$71−$32$0
Will Lamine Yamal finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Yes6595.5¢94.1¢$61−$0.93$0
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes6862¢86.4¢$59+$17$0
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Yes9960.6¢54.5¢$54−$6.03−$0.85
Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?No5189.4¢92.5¢$48+$1.57$0
Will Michael Olise finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?No5296¢91.1¢$47−$2.56$0
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?No5379.1¢82¢$43+$1.50$0
Will Fabian Ruiz finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?No4396.3¢91.4¢$39−$2.14$0
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Yes8958.5¢43.6¢$39−$13−$3.49
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?No4094¢93.5¢$37−$0.20$0
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes4769.2¢69.9¢$33+$0.30$0
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?No4380.7¢72.5¢$31−$3.54−$0.39
Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?Yes1976.3¢96.7¢$18+$3.87−$2.92
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?No1289.9¢96.9¢$12+$0.87+$3.03
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes1618¢7.5¢$12−$0.80$0
Will Predict.fun launch a token by June 30, 2027?Yes1292.1¢96¢$12+$0.47$0
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?No991.5¢98.7¢$8.91+$0.65+$0.33
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?No1464.5¢56.5¢$8.00−$1.13+$0.34
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?No1548.8¢45.5¢$6.97−$0.51−$1.13
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 16, 2026?No793.7¢96¢$6.73+$0.16$0
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before November 30, 2026No797.2¢95.7¢$6.70−$0.11$0
Will over 58 Senators vote for the Clarity Act?No788¢94¢$6.65+$0.42$0
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026?No792¢92¢$6.51$0$0
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?No778¢83¢$5.88+$0.35$0
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?No686¢85.5¢$5.31−$0.03$0
Will Bad Bunny rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2026?No787¢67.5¢$4.78−$1.38$0
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?No385¢95.5¢$3.25+$0.36+$0.65
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 23, 2026?No296¢91.5¢$1.73−$0.09−$0.55
Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?No319¢3.4¢$0.09−$0.44+$1.89
Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?No517.1¢1.7¢$0.09−$0.83+$0.05
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?Yes658¢0.5¢$0.02−$3.17$0
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Yes4950.8¢0¢$0−$3.96−$0.20
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 12?No2472.2¢0¢$0−$5.52−$1.10
Trump renames AI by September 30?No23164.1¢0¢$0−$148−$2.07
Trump renames AI by October 31?No14312.9¢0¢$0−$18−$0.60
LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch?No3614¢0¢$0−$5.10−$0.31
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?No3681.4¢0¢$0−$29$0
Will Jynxzi, Ron, and Los have between 60 and 89 Minecraft deaths during the marathon?Yes3340.6¢0¢$0−$13−$0.40
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs magic - Map 2 Winnermagic3352.4¢0¢$0−$17−$0.41
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?No2225¢0¢$0−$5.54$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
SELL NoIran leadership change by December 31?88¢153$13485%61
BUY YesUS x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 15?95¢311$29685%61
SELL NoWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?69¢9$5.9385%61
SELL NoUS x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 12?1.2¢106$1.2885%61
BUY NoUS x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 12?2.1¢86$1.8085%61
BUY NoUS x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 12?2.1¢171$3.6085%61
BUY NoUS x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 12?2.6¢96$2.5085%61
BUY NoWill Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?89.4¢51$4685%61
BUY NoWill the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?65¢51$3385%61
BUY NoFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before November 30, 202697.2¢7$6.8185%61
BUY NoIran leadership change by December 31?89¢7$6.3085%61
BUY YesWill Lamine Yamal finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?95.5¢65$6285%61
BUY NoWill the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?65¢22$1485%61
BUY NoWill the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?65¢66$4385%61
BUY NoWill the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?65¢92$6085%61
BUY YesWill Predict.fun launch a token by June 30, 2027?92.1¢12$1185%61
BUY NoWill the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?65¢10$6.4085%61
BUY YesWill OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?55¢49$2785%61
BUY NoWill the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?65¢5$3.3985%61
BUY NoWill the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?65¢10$6.4085%61