sharpside
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Traders/Rank #3,194

momo513

0xcdf…b8ea
WhaleWR 80+WR 70+WR 60+1y+PoliticsOther
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$4,755vol $2.24M
PnL 30d+$213gains $7,194 · losses $5,754
PnL 7d−$1,114win rate 7d 88.2%
Win rate90.2%adj 88.6% · 30d 92.6%
Open value$100kcash n/a
Positions61 / 750open / all-time
Max drawdown−74.9%of equity peak
Account age1.0ylast trade 8h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$8,371below peak −$8,131Oct 9

SharpScore inputs

65/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale53
Adjusted win rateraw 90.2% · shrunk toward 50%100
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable96
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d99
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity25

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 61

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No21.8k96.4¢97.8¢$21.3k+$295+$311
Xi Jinping out before 2027?No21.8k95.8¢97¢$21.1k+$251+$546
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?No3,00092.9¢98.6¢$2,957+$171$0
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?No2,92597.1¢99.2¢$2,901+$61$0
China x Japan military clash before 2027?No3,00089.7¢96.6¢$2,897+$204+$642
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?No3,00084.8¢95.5¢$2,865+$321−$7.67
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?Yes3,00381.8¢94¢$2,823+$367+$106
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseNo3,00090.1¢91.5¢$2,745+$43$0
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?No3,00089.6¢89.5¢$2,685−$3.00$0
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?No2,70096.4¢96.5¢$2,604+$2.25−$59
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No3,00084¢84.5¢$2,535+$15$0
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Yes2,21282.5¢96.3¢$2,130+$305−$19
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?No2,00093.5¢98¢$1,959+$89$0
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes2,00084.4¢87.1¢$1,741+$52$0
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?No1,78495.5¢96.3¢$1,717+$14−$1.10
GTA 6 launch postponed again?No1,70095¢96.3¢$1,637+$22$0
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?No1,61081.4¢85.5¢$1,377+$66$0
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?No1,38496¢95.9¢$1,328−$1.38$0
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?No1,30091¢90.5¢$1,177−$6.50$0
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?No1,20094¢93¢$1,116−$12$0
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes1,20091¢90.5¢$1,086−$6.00$0
Iran leadership change by October 31?No1,00095.9¢98.4¢$984+$25$0
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Yes1,00094.7¢96.1¢$961+$14$0
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?No98594.9¢95¢$936+$1.11$0
Will the 2026 United Left primary for the 2027 French presidential election be canceled?Yes1,00093.6¢92.6¢$926−$10.00$0
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?No90091.7¢93.5¢$842+$17$0
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?No80067.4¢84.5¢$676+$137$0
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Yes80095¢76.5¢$612−$148−$248
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9?Yes60097.7¢99.1¢$595+$8.20$0
Anthropic lab leak by December 31, 2026?No60096.9¢97.2¢$583+$1.32$0
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No59596.6¢98¢$583+$8.03$0
Iran leadership change by November 30?No60095¢94¢$564−$6.00$0
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?No60095¢93.5¢$561−$9.00$0
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?No60092¢93.5¢$561+$9.00$0
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?No60093¢92.5¢$555−$3.00$0
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?No60090.3¢92¢$552+$10$0
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?No60089¢89.5¢$537+$3.00+$22
Iran leadership change by December 31?No60078¢89.5¢$537+$69$0
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No60484.5¢87.2¢$527+$16−$621
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?No60071.6¢85.5¢$513+$83$0
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?No60091.8¢82¢$492−$59−$218
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Yes60092.8¢79.5¢$477−$80−$59
Will Tommie Ekered be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Jönköping County?No59296.7¢79.2¢$468−$104$0
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?No60073.9¢74¢$444+$0.38−$80
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?No30397.5¢97.6¢$296+$0.15$0
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?No30097.1¢97.6¢$293+$1.50$0
Will Francis James Allison Oyague win the next Lima mayoral elections?No30098.7¢96.9¢$291−$5.68$0
Meituan matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?No30095¢95¢$285$0$0
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?No26496.4¢96.5¢$254+$0.13$0
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Yes60070.3¢42¢$252−$170$0
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?Yes23896.1¢95.6¢$228−$1.19$0
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes30071.6¢72.3¢$217+$2.06$0
Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?No21589¢89.5¢$193+$1.08$0
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?No32591.7¢57.5¢$187−$111$0
Will the Republican Party win the CA-42 House seat?No10095¢96.9¢$97+$1.90$0
Will the Democratic Party win the ID-02 House seat?No10095¢96.3¢$96+$1.25$0
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?No9897.1¢97.1¢$96−$0.03$0
US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?No10085¢83.5¢$84−$1.50$0
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on October 9, 2026?No4599.7¢99.7¢$45−$0.02$0
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,700 in October?No3095.7¢97.9¢$29+$0.66$0
Gemini 4.0 released by October 9, 2026?No1999.5¢98.4¢$19−$0.22$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY NoWill Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?97.1¢80$7890%65
BUY YesWill the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?91¢300$27390%65
SELL No Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?89¢300$26790%65
BUY NoPutin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?96.3¢1,500$1,44590%65
BUY NoPutin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?96.3¢600$57890%65
SELL NoUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?85¢1,000$85090%65
SELL NoUS-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 15?93¢600$55890%65
SELL NoMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31?94¢600$56490%65
BUY NoWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on October 9, 2026?99.7¢45$4590%65
BUY NoGemini 4.0 released by October 9, 2026?99.5¢19$1990%65
BUY NoPutin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?96.3¢300$28990%65
BUY NoWill Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?96.4¢264$25490%65
BUY NoWill Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?97¢18$1890%65
SELL YesWill Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?71.9¢200$14490%65
BUY NoWill Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?89¢215$19290%65
SELL YesWill Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?75.1¢1,000$75190%65
BUY NoWill Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?93¢300$27990%65
BUY NoWill OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?93¢600$55890%65
SELL NoWill Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?83.9¢409$34390%65
SELL YesWill Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?79¢400$31690%65