Traders/Rank #1,629

0xd32…a4c2

PnL 50k+PnL 10k+PoliticsOtherSport

Polymarket

PnL all-time+$97.4kvol $4.40M

PnL 30d+$8,931gains $172k · losses $55.6k

PnL 7d+$14.8kwin rate 7d 30.8%

Win rate24.0%adj 25.0% · 30d 24.0%

Open value$86cash n/a

Positions208 / 1,773open / all-time

Max drawdown−63.0%of equity peak

Account age10molast trade 7h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$121kbelow peak −$108kOct 9

SharpScore inputs

51/ 100 SharpScore · v1

Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale71

Adjusted win rateraw 24.0% · shrunk toward 50%0

Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100

Recencylast trade; fades over 30d99

Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity37

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · Noclosed+$49.5k Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Noclosed+$17.4k Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Noclosed+$13.9k Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · Noclosed+$11.4k Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? · Noclosed+$7,454

Worst markets

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? · Noclosed−$3,328 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? · Noclosed−$3,220 Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? · Noclosed−$3,153 Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · Yesclosed−$1,640 Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting? · Noclosed−$1,566

Open positions · 100

Market	Outcome		Avg entry	Now			Realized	Ends
Will Thinky have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	5,784	3.1¢	0.1¢	$2.89	−$178	$0	20d 22h
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	5,784	3.1¢	0.1¢	$2.89	−$178	$0	20d 22h
Will MiniMax have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	5,784	3.1¢	0.1¢	$2.89	−$178	$0	20d 22h
Will StepFun have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	5,784	3.1¢	0.1¢	$2.89	−$178	$0	20d 22h
Will Tencent have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	5,784	3.1¢	0.1¢	$2.89	−$178	$0	20d 22h
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	5,784	3.1¢	0.1¢	$2.89	−$178	$0	20d 22h
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	5,355	3.1¢	0.1¢	$2.68	−$165	$0	20d 22h
Will Nvidia have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	5,031	3.1¢	0.1¢	$2.52	−$155	$0	20d 22h
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	4,815	3.1¢	0.1¢	$2.41	−$148	$0	20d 22h
Will Amanda Lind be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	4,577	2.8¢	0.1¢	$2.29	−$125	$0	ended
Will Daniel Helldén be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	4,577	2.8¢	0.1¢	$2.29	−$125	$0	ended
Will Nooshi Dadgostar be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	4,496	2.8¢	0.1¢	$2.25	−$122	$0	ended
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	3,502	3.1¢	0.1¢	$1.75	−$108	$0	20d 22h
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	3,353	3.1¢	0.1¢	$1.68	−$103	−$73	20d 22h
Will Discord have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	2,979	1.4¢	0.1¢	$1.49	−$39	$0	3mo
Will Databricks have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	2,979	1.4¢	0.1¢	$1.49	−$39	$0	3mo
Will SHEIN have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	2,979	1.4¢	0.1¢	$1.49	−$39	$0	3mo
Will Perplexity AI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	2,979	1.4¢	0.1¢	$1.49	−$39	$0	3mo
Will Waymo have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	2,979	1.4¢	0.1¢	$1.49	−$39	$0	3mo
Will Revolut have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	2,979	1.4¢	0.1¢	$1.49	−$39	$0	3mo
Will Stripe have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	2,979	1.4¢	0.1¢	$1.49	−$39	$0	3mo
Will ByteDance have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	2,979	1.4¢	0.1¢	$1.49	−$39	$0	3mo
Will Kraken have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	2,979	1.4¢	0.1¢	$1.49	−$39	$0	3mo
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	2,359	7.7¢	0.1¢	$1.18	−$180	−$2.18	3mo
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	2,359	7.7¢	0.1¢	$1.18	−$180	−$7.42	3mo
Will Xiaomi have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	2,124	3.1¢	0.1¢	$1.06	−$65	−$111	20d 22h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	1,944	3.1¢	0.1¢	$0.97	−$60	−$39	20d 22h
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	1,678	7.7¢	0.1¢	$0.84	−$128	−$2.16	3mo
Will Anna-Karin Hatt be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	1,508	2.8¢	0.1¢	$0.75	−$41	−$82	ended
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	1,500	2.2¢	0.1¢	$0.75	−$33	−$18	24d 22h
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	1,500	2.2¢	0.1¢	$0.75	−$33	$0	24d 22h
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	1,500	2.2¢	0.1¢	$0.75	−$33	−$7.03	24d 22h
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	1,500	2.2¢	0.1¢	$0.75	−$33	−$20	24d 22h
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	1,500	2.2¢	0.1¢	$0.75	−$33	−$2.30	24d 22h
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	1,500	2.2¢	0.1¢	$0.75	−$33	−$14	24d 22h
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	1,500	2.2¢	0.1¢	$0.75	−$33	−$18	24d 22h
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	1,500	2.2¢	0.1¢	$0.75	−$33	$0	24d 22h
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	1,500	2.2¢	0.1¢	$0.75	−$33	$0	24d 22h
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	1,500	2.2¢	0.1¢	$0.75	−$33	−$0.21	24d 22h
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	1,500	2.2¢	0.1¢	$0.75	−$33	$0	24d 22h
Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	1,500	2.2¢	0.1¢	$0.75	−$33	−$18	24d 22h
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	1,500	2.2¢	0.1¢	$0.75	−$33	−$2.30	24d 22h
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	1,438	3.1¢	0.1¢	$0.72	−$44	−$44	20d 22h
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	1,423	3.1¢	0.1¢	$0.71	−$44	−$0.82	20d 22h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	1,351	7.7¢	0.1¢	$0.68	−$103	−$7.36	3mo
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	1,320	2.2¢	0.1¢	$0.66	−$29	−$18	24d 22h
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	1,320	2.2¢	0.1¢	$0.66	−$29	−$0.68	24d 22h
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	1,320	2.2¢	0.1¢	$0.66	−$29	−$2.30	24d 22h
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	1,320	2.2¢	0.1¢	$0.66	−$29	−$21	24d 22h
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	1,320	2.2¢	0.1¢	$0.66	−$29	$0	24d 22h
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	1,320	2.2¢	0.1¢	$0.66	−$29	−$2.76	24d 22h
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	1,251	3.6¢	0.1¢	$0.63	−$44	−$0.13	3mo
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	458	3.6¢	0.1¢	$0.46	−$16	−$10.00	17d 22h
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	458	3.6¢	0.1¢	$0.46	−$16	$0	17d 22h
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	458	3.6¢	0.1¢	$0.46	−$16	−$13	17d 22h
Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	458	3.6¢	0.1¢	$0.46	−$16	−$23	17d 22h
Will Simona Mohamsson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	876	2.8¢	0.1¢	$0.44	−$24	−$99	ended
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	865	7.7¢	0.1¢	$0.43	−$66	−$2.03	3mo
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	861	2.2¢	0.1¢	$0.43	−$19	−$4.23	24d 22h
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	856	3.1¢	0.1¢	$0.43	−$26	−$18	20d 22h
Will Carles Puigdemont be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Yes	853	1.7¢	0.1¢	$0.43	−$14	$0	18mo
Will Óscar Puente be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Yes	853	1.7¢	0.1¢	$0.43	−$14	$0	18mo
Will Pepa Millán be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Yes	853	1.7¢	0.1¢	$0.43	−$14	$0	18mo
Will Aitor Esteban be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Yes	853	1.7¢	0.1¢	$0.43	−$14	$0	18mo
Will María Jesús Montero be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Yes	803	1.7¢	0.1¢	$0.40	−$13	$0	18mo
Will Cuca Gamarra be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Yes	803	1.7¢	0.1¢	$0.40	−$13	$0	18mo
Will Miguel Tellado be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Yes	803	1.7¢	0.1¢	$0.40	−$13	$0	18mo
Will Ester Muñoz be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Yes	803	1.7¢	0.1¢	$0.40	−$13	$0	18mo
Will Borja Sémper be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Yes	803	1.7¢	0.1¢	$0.40	−$13	$0	18mo
Will Ernest Urtasun be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Yes	803	1.7¢	0.1¢	$0.40	−$13	$0	18mo
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	377	3.6¢	0.1¢	$0.38	−$13	$0	17d 22h
Will Yolanda Díaz be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Yes	656	1.7¢	0.1¢	$0.33	−$11	$0	18mo
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	631	7.7¢	0.1¢	$0.32	−$48	−$7.15	3mo
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	521	3.6¢	0.1¢	$0.26	−$18	+$0.36	3mo
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	250	3.6¢	0.1¢	$0.25	−$8.68	$0	17d 22h
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	229	3.6¢	0.1¢	$0.23	−$7.94	−$14	17d 22h
Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	150	3.6¢	0.2¢	$0.23	−$5.13	$0	3mo
Will Nvidia have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	375	2.9¢	0.1¢	$0.19	−$11	$0	51d 22h
Will Thinky have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	375	2.9¢	0.1¢	$0.19	−$11	$0	51d 22h
Will StepFun have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	375	2.9¢	0.1¢	$0.19	−$11	$0	51d 22h
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	375	2.9¢	0.1¢	$0.19	−$11	$0	51d 22h
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's US Open?	Yes	330	0¢	0.1¢	$0.16	+$0.16	$0	21d 22h
Will Natalia Kiselova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Yes	325	2.5¢	0.1¢	$0.16	−$7.96	$0	15d 22h
Will Yanaki Stoilov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Yes	325	2.5¢	0.1¢	$0.16	−$7.96	$0	15d 22h
Will Delyan Peevski win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Yes	325	2.5¢	0.1¢	$0.16	−$7.96	$0	15d 22h
Will Krum Zarkov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Yes	325	2.5¢	0.1¢	$0.16	−$7.96	$0	15d 22h
Will Rosen Plevneliev win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Yes	325	2.5¢	0.1¢	$0.16	−$7.96	$0	15d 22h
Will Atanas Atanasov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Yes	325	2.5¢	0.1¢	$0.16	−$7.96	$0	15d 22h
Will Blagomir Kotsev win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Yes	325	2.5¢	0.1¢	$0.16	−$7.96	$0	15d 22h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	307	7.7¢	0.1¢	$0.15	−$23	−$7.11	3mo
Will MiniMax have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	277	2.9¢	0.1¢	$0.14	−$7.78	$0	51d 22h
Will Rosen Zhelyazkov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Yes	275	2.5¢	0.1¢	$0.14	−$6.74	$0	15d 22h
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	250	2.9¢	0.1¢	$0.13	−$7.02	$0	51d 22h
Will Nikolai Denkov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Yes	250	2.5¢	0.1¢	$0.13	−$6.13	$0	15d 22h
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	250	2.9¢	0.1¢	$0.13	−$7.02	$0	51d 22h
Will Boyko Borissov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Yes	250	2.5¢	0.1¢	$0.13	−$6.13	$0	15d 22h
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	250	2.9¢	0.1¢	$0.13	−$7.02	−$3.45	51d 22h
Will Tencent have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	250	2.9¢	0.1¢	$0.13	−$7.02	$0	51d 22h
Will Vassil Terziev win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Yes	225	2.5¢	0.1¢	$0.11	−$5.51	$0	15d 22h
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	200	1.1¢	0.1¢	$0.10	−$2.15	$0	3mo

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s

Time	Side	Market	Price	Shares	Value	Trader WR	Sharp
7h ago	BUY No	Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	99.9¢	125	$125	24%	51
7h ago	BUY No	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	16¢	125	$20	24%	51
7h ago	BUY No	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	98.6¢	125	$123	24%	51
7h ago	BUY No	Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	99.9¢	125	$125	24%	51
7h ago	BUY No	Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	99.7¢	125	$125	24%	51
7h ago	BUY No	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	59¢	125	$74	24%	51
9h ago	BUY No	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	59¢	125	$74	24%	51
12h ago	BUY No	Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	99.7¢	125	$125	24%	51
12h ago	BUY No	Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	99.9¢	125	$125	24%	51
12h ago	BUY No	Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	99.9¢	125	$125	24%	51
12h ago	BUY No	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	98¢	125	$123	24%	51
12h ago	BUY No	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	14¢	125	$18	24%	51
12h ago	BUY No	Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	99.7¢	25	$25	24%	51
12h ago	BUY No	Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	97.2¢	25	$24	24%	51
12h ago	BUY No	Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	99.9¢	25	$25	24%	51
12h ago	BUY No	Will Fabian Ruiz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	99.9¢	25	$25	24%	51
12h ago	BUY No	Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	99¢	25	$25	24%	51
12h ago	BUY No	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	61.8¢	25	$15	24%	51
12h ago	BUY No	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	97.7¢	25	$24	24%	51
12h ago	BUY No	Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	99.6¢	25	$25	24%	51