sharpside
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Traders/Rank #3,987

Eire

0xda6…3f38
WhaleWR 60+PoliticsSport
Polymarket
PnL all-time−$67.1kvol $1.66M
PnL 30d−$26.7kgains $5,909 · losses $31.8k
PnL 7d−$15.0kwin rate 7d 66.7%
Win rate68.5%adj 67.7% · 30d 64.7%
Open value$63.5kcash n/a
Positions52 / 483open / all-time
Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak
Account age6molast trade 3d ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL−$62.8kbelow peak −$65.3kOct 8

SharpScore inputs

36/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 68.5% · shrunk toward 50%69
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable89
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d89
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? · Yesclosed+$16.4kUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? · Noclosed+$9,448US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? · Noclosed+$7,814Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? · Yesclosed+$6,303Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance · Spainclosed+$2,713

Worst markets

Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? · Yesclosed−$34.9kWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yesclosed−$29.7kUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? · Noclosed−$22.3kWill Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election · Yesclosed−$7,473Starmer out by June 30, 2026? · Noclosed−$6,507

Open positions · 52

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes50.0k84.5¢85.7¢$42.8k+$589$0
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Yes17.0k85¢79.5¢$13.5k−$933$0
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) be in the next Swedish government?Yes2,40087¢79.9¢$1,918−$170$0
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Yes2,24658.6¢57.8¢$1,297−$20$0
Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026?No1,26089.3¢91¢$1,147+$21$0
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?No71695.9¢97.4¢$697+$11$0
Will the Green Party (MP) be in the next Swedish government?Yes49582.1¢77.5¢$384−$23$0
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes52057.1¢43.7¢$227−$70$0
Will Carl Johan Sonesson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Skåne?Yes19074.7¢94.5¢$180+$38$0
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes14469.6¢73.5¢$106+$5.57$0
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?Yes12381¢85.5¢$106+$5.56$0
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Yes16959¢61.5¢$104+$4.24$0
Will Lars Markus Hildingsson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Blekinge?Yes9989.7¢98.5¢$97+$8.67$0
Will Morgan Wallen be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026?Yes10073.8¢80.5¢$80+$6.68$0
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Yes13773¢57.5¢$79−$21$0
Will Mattias Ottosson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Östergötland?Yes10083.1¢78¢$78−$5.07$0
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?Yes12679.5¢61.5¢$77−$23$0
Will Rachel De Basso be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Jönköping County?Yes10077¢73.5¢$74−$3.50$0
Will Mikaela Waltersson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Halland?Yes10086¢69¢$69−$17$0
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes30024.3¢17.8¢$54−$19$0
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?No5090.5¢97.8¢$49+$3.63$0
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes57817.3¢8.1¢$47−$53$0
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes23121.6¢19.9¢$46−$4.05$0
Will Angelica Katsanidou be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Kalmar County?Yes5084¢85.6¢$43+$0.78$0
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?Yes50024.2¢6.5¢$33−$88$0
Will Mikael Andersson Elfgren be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Västmanland?Yes3791¢83.5¢$31−$2.77$0
Will the Republican Party win the SC-02 House seat?Yes2083¢86.5¢$17+$0.70$0
Will the Democratic Party win the OH-13 House seat?Yes1282.3¢97.2¢$12+$1.80$0
Will the Democratic Party win the IN-01 House seat?Yes1284¢98¢$12+$1.66$0
Will the Republican Party win the WI-07 House seat?Yes1283¢94.5¢$11+$1.39$0
Will the Republican Party win the OH-14 House seat?Yes1286¢96.3¢$11+$1.19$0
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes1285¢90.5¢$11+$0.65$0
Will the Democratic Party win the IN-07 House seat?Yes1192¢97.3¢$11+$0.57$0
Will the Republican Party win the OH-15 House seat?Yes1471¢74.5¢$10+$0.49$0
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska governor race in 2026?Yes1285¢88.5¢$10+$0.41$0
Will the Democratic Party win the OH-03 House seat?Yes1194¢96.6¢$10+$0.28$0
Will the Republican Party win the IN-05 House seat?Yes1281¢83¢$10+$0.25$0
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Yes1377¢71.5¢$9.29−$0.71$0
Will the Republican Party win the FL-07 House seat?Yes1376¢65.5¢$8.62−$1.38$0
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes2638¢9.5¢$2.50−$7.50$0
Will the Republican Party win the OH-10 House seat?Yes176¢85¢$1.12+$0.12$0
Will the Republican Party win the OH-08 House seat?Yes184¢91.5¢$1.09+$0.09$0
Will the Republican Party win the OH-05 House seat?Yes190¢93.5¢$1.04+$0.04$0
Will Blake Miguez be the Republican nominee for LA-05?Yes4579¢1.5¢$0.65−$35$0
Will Lebanese Forces win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?Yes9111¢0.3¢$0.23−$9.77$0
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania?Yes1064.6¢1.6¢$0.16−$6.30$0
Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027?Yes1010¢1.4¢$0.14−$0.86$0
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?No79168¢0¢$0−$538−$12
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Yes70070.8¢0¢$0−$496$0
Katie Taylor vs. Flora PiliFlora Pili66011.1¢0¢$0−$73−$3.23
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes65981.2¢0¢$0−$535−$3,121
Will Elaine Pelino win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Republican primary election?Yes3094¢0¢$0−$28−$0.07

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY YesWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?83.3¢1,009$84069%36
SELL YesWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?12.7¢2,196$27869%36
BUY YesWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?84.8¢1,000$84869%36
BUY YesWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?83¢500$41569%36
BUY YesWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?84¢2,500$2,10069%36
BUY YesWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?83.8¢2,600$2,17869%36
SELL YesWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?16¢1,066$17169%36
SELL YesWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?15¢3,262$48969%36
SELL YesWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?15¢2,175$32669%36
SELL YesWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?15.1¢5,000$75369%36
SELL YesWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?16¢650$10469%36
SELL YesWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?16¢4,783$76569%36
BUY YesWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?84.5¢500$42369%36
BUY YesWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?83.2¢200$16669%36
BUY YesWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?83¢300$24969%36
BUY YesWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?86¢2,500$2,15069%36
SELL YesWill Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?3¢150$4.5069%36
SELL YesWill Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?3¢3,467$10469%36
SELL YesWill Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?4¢496$2069%36
BUY YesWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?87.2¢1,072$93569%36