sharpside
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Traders/Rank #4,071

neutralwave23

0x5b6…11a4
WhaleWR 70+WR 60+SportPoliticsCrypto
Polymarket
PnL all-time−$2.67Mvol $146M
PnL 30d−$152kgains $23.1k · losses $18.1k
PnL 7d−$62.7kwin rate 7d 72.0%
Win rate72.0%adj 71.2% · 30d 72.0%
Open value$278kcash n/a
Positions2,000 / 182,237open / all-time
Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak
Account age8molast trade 12s ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL−$2.02Mbelow peak −$2.02MOct 8

SharpScore inputs

38/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 72.0% · shrunk toward 50%78
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d100
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 100

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes216k9.4¢13¢$28.0k+$7,692+$23
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes25.2k75.2¢85.7¢$21.6k+$2,659+$437
Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026?No16.1k85.8¢95.3¢$15.4k+$1,517$0
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes34.7k34.2¢36.5¢$12.7k+$788−$374
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No33.0k36¢35.5¢$11.7k−$165$0
Will Real Madrid reach the 2027 UEFA Champions League quarterfinal?Yes13.6k75.6¢80.5¢$10.9k+$661$0
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?No11.0k43.6¢92¢$10.1k+$5,325−$1.91
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?No8,39473¢80.5¢$6,758+$626−$1,470
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes49.3k47¢13.5¢$6,655−$16.5k−$13.8k
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No5,69589.6¢97.2¢$5,533+$432−$9.10
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes7,11279.6¢71.3¢$5,071−$591−$0.09
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Yes9,22356.1¢53.7¢$4,948−$226+$0.53
Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?Yes16.7k26.3¢29.1¢$4,871+$461$0
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?No4,81778.9¢95¢$4,576+$776+$0.67
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No4,54291.6¢97.7¢$4,438+$279+$118
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?Yes66.8k15.7¢6.5¢$4,340−$6,129−$418
Will Solana dip to $40 by December 31, 2026?No3,90466.1¢96.2¢$3,756+$1,175+$467
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes5,80350.2¢58.5¢$3,395+$484−$33
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?Yes4,91141.3¢62.5¢$3,070+$1,039$0
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026?No3,50128.4¢84.5¢$2,958+$1,966+$9.83
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alexander Zverev vs Yibing WuAlexander Zverev2,89588¢87.5¢$2,534−$14$0
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No2,60573.9¢94.5¢$2,461+$538−$2.93
Will Barcelona reach the 2027 UEFA Champions League quarterfinal?Yes2,87082¢81.5¢$2,339−$14−$0.14
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Ben Shelton vs Daniel AltmaierBen Shelton2,35988¢87.5¢$2,064−$12$0
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseYes24.0k10¢8.5¢$2,038−$358+$66
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?No2,32372¢84.5¢$1,963+$291−$36
Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?Yes3,15443.2¢61.5¢$1,940+$576+$10
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes60.8k2.3¢3¢$1,825+$397$0
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseYes2,78858¢63.5¢$1,771+$154+$0.46
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes6,07023.5¢25.5¢$1,548+$119−$1,743
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Yes30.8k12.6¢4.9¢$1,507−$2,359−$15.3k
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes5,65331.6¢25.5¢$1,442−$345−$16
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?No31.2k14.2¢4.5¢$1,390−$3,049−$4.88
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?Yes6,00526.7¢22.5¢$1,351−$249−$10
Will Santos FC win on 2026-10-08?Yes6,22522¢21.5¢$1,338−$31$0
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes48.7k2.6¢2.7¢$1,289+$44+$0.92
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseNo3,25854.5¢36.5¢$1,189−$587−$84
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?No2,55257.2¢46.4¢$1,183−$278−$6.02
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes5,86213.3¢18¢$1,052+$273−$0.76
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes2,26017.6¢42.6¢$962+$563+$2,175
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?Yes3,55522.1¢26.5¢$942+$155−$85
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes12.7k9.3¢7.4¢$931−$252+$36
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes8,39468.8¢11¢$923−$4,848−$805
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes28.8k3.2¢2.8¢$793−$137+$0.10
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes6,06311.7¢12.5¢$758+$48−$1.47
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes8,74541¢7¢$612−$2,970−$56
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes3,42825.6¢17.8¢$612−$266−$202
Buccaneers vs. CowboysBuccaneers2,83820¢19.5¢$553−$14$0
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?Yes26.1k5.8¢2¢$521−$977−$1.90
Variational FDV above $3B one day after launch?Yes3,85814.5¢13.3¢$511−$48$0
Will Las Vegas Raiders win the 2026 AFC West?Yes4,37914¢9.7¢$423−$190$0
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes10.9k43.9¢3.4¢$366−$4,433+$0.77
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Yes11.0k3.4¢3.3¢$364−$16−$29
Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?Yes2,53911.1¢13.5¢$343+$61$0
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series?Yes4,9428.5¢6.9¢$339−$83$0
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Yes14.9k8.4¢2.3¢$336−$920−$73
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes24.7k1.4¢1.2¢$297−$56−$36
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?Yes9,9127.6¢2.9¢$287−$464−$315
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?Yes3,27974.1¢8.1¢$264−$2,164+$59
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?Yes16.5k6.7¢1.5¢$248−$863$0
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes9,4973¢2.6¢$242−$41−$0.12
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Yes52.6k0.3¢0.5¢$237+$63−$1.52
US recession by end of 2026?Yes3,51711.6¢6.5¢$229−$179−$145
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?Yes5,81325.2¢3.8¢$221−$1,241−$1.12
Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Yes20.0k8.5¢1.1¢$210−$1,490−$170
Will Solana dip to $80 in October?Yes3,2024.1¢6.3¢$202+$71$0
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Yes6,6515.6¢2.9¢$190−$186−$406
Will GameStop acquire eBay?Yes3,07014.2¢5.5¢$169−$266−$210
Will Iran legalize gay marriage?Yes8,2912.2¢1.9¢$153−$29$0
Will Tottenham win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?Yes41.2k1.5¢0.4¢$144−$474$0
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes11.7k1.9¢1.1¢$123−$105+$6.93
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes14.2k4¢0.9¢$121−$447$0
Trump out as President before 2027?Yes2,2966.2¢4.2¢$96−$47−$69
Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027?Yes2,60320.6¢3.6¢$92−$443$0
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes2,8113.4¢3.2¢$89−$6.60+$19
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?Yes4,6118.2¢1.8¢$83−$295−$468
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes2,41838.6¢3.2¢$77−$857−$5.95
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes5,8722.4¢1.3¢$73−$65−$3.64
Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Yes45.4k0.4¢0.2¢$68−$114−$0.34
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in October?Yes3,0921.4¢2.2¢$66+$23−$0.57
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?Yes3,5685.4¢1.9¢$66−$126−$95
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes2,3844.3¢2.7¢$63−$40−$113
Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes11.1k0.4¢0.5¢$61+$18$0
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Yes6,6891.8¢0.9¢$57−$62+$1.36
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes5,0702.6¢0.9¢$43−$90$0
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes14.2k1¢0.3¢$35−$108−$76
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes2,6852.5¢1.3¢$34−$34−$279
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes4,4732.6¢0.8¢$34−$83$0
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes65.6k0.6¢0.1¢$33−$336$0
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?Yes3,4031.2¢0.9¢$29−$10$0
Will Fabian Ruiz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Yes18.3k0.9¢0.2¢$27−$142−$20
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?Yes2,3625.8¢1.1¢$26−$111−$0.69
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes2,3121.4¢1.1¢$24−$7.33$0
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Yes3,6958.2¢0.7¢$24−$279−$257
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes3,45424.1¢0.7¢$22−$811−$5,326
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Yes4,5092¢0.5¢$20−$72$0
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?Yes4,9561¢0.4¢$17−$33$0
Will Sergey Brin be richest person on December 31?Yes5,9030.8¢0.3¢$15−$31−$6.23
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Yes9,6622.9¢0.2¢$14−$269−$197
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Yes3,1574.4¢0.5¢$14−$124$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY DownBitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET23¢20$4.4972%38
BUY UpBitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET54¢26$1472%38
SELL UpEthereum Up or Down - October 8, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET69¢11$7.6272%38
BUY UpBitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET58¢56$3272%38
BUY UpEthereum Up or Down - October 8, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET41.2¢11$4.5572%38
BUY NoWill Santos FC win on 2026-10-08?79¢119$9472%38
BUY Kaufland Hangry KnightsLoL: Galions vs Kaufland Hangry Knights (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs8¢122$9.7872%38
BUY DownEthereum Up or Down - October 8, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET46.7¢571$26772%38
SELL Maryville UniversityLoL: Maryville University vs Cupid Esports - Game 2 Winner99¢78$7772%38
BUY Karen KhachanovShanghai Rolex Masters: Karen Khachanov vs Arthur Fery68¢57$3972%38
BUY DownHyperliquid Up or Down - October 8, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET4.3¢104$4.4372%38
BUY OverSantos FC vs. CR Flamengo: CR Flamengo O/U 1.554¢9$4.6372%38
BUY Karen KhachanovShanghai Rolex Masters: Karen Khachanov vs Arthur Fery68¢1,124$76472%38
BUY UnderSouth Florida vs. UTSA: O/U 53.559.7¢16$9.3772%38
BUY DownXRP Up or Down - October 8, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET10¢45$4.4572%38
BUY UpBitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET91¢7$6.2972%38
SELL ex-Keyd StarsCounter-Strike: Isurus vs ex-Keyd Stars (BO3) - ESL Challenger League South America Cup #3 Playoffs90.6¢50$4672%38
BUY FURIACounter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs42¢270$11372%38
SELL UpEthereum Up or Down - October 8, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET84.1¢36$3072%38
BUY VitalityCounter-Strike: Vitality vs PARIVISION - Map 1 Winner72¢13$9.6972%38